Changchai Co Ltd (000570) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Changchai Co Ltd ¥3.14, price ¥5.31, upside -40.9%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.80 – ¥7.28 · the ¥5.31 price screens above the ¥3.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Changchai Company, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells small and medium-sized single cylinder and multi-cylinder diesel engines under the Changchai brand in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Changchai Company, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells small and medium-sized single cylinder and multi-cylinder diesel engines under the Changchai brand in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers light diesel and outboard engines; gasoline engines under the Robin brand; and intelligent integrated charging stations. Its diesel engines are used in tractors, combine harvesters, light commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment, small construction machinery, generating sets, marine engines, pickup and light trucks, low-speed trucks, gardening machinery, plant protection machinery, rice transplanters, cold chain and ships, water pump units, road maintenance machinery, and other fields. The company also provides diesel engine blocks, cylinder heads, crankshafts, gear chamber covers, balance shafts, and other parts for diesel engine manufacturing enterprises; castings, such as clamp bodies, brackets, and valve plates; waterjet propellers, marine diesel emergency fire pump units, small marine generator units, and marine supporting products; and grain harvesting machines, rotary tillers, walking tractors, and molds and fixtures. In addition, it engages in the assembly and sale of diesel and gasoline engine units. Further, the company offers external investment and consulting services; and real estate management services. It also exports its products. Changchai Company, Limited was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Changzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Changchai Co Ltd (000570) currently trades at ¥5.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.14, implying the stock looks roughly 69.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥4.93 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the ¥5.31 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.7700, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Changchai Co Ltd reported revenue of 2.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 50.8M CNY in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.7B CNY (≈ $559M) · P/E ratio 43.5 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −41%, 000570 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥3.14Fair Value ¥3.14Bull ¥3.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0717 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs −4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.9%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 832 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−41% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)43.5× · Pricier than median
P/B1.09× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.49× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF2.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA21.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)25· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Changchai Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000570
Frequently asked questions
Is Changchai Co Ltd (000570) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.14 versus a price of ¥5.31, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000570?
Our model-based fair value for Changchai Co Ltd is ¥3.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥5.31.
What is the quality score of 000570?
Changchai Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changchai Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.14, about −41% upside versus a price of ¥5.31 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
Changchai Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Changchai Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Changchai Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Changchai Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -6.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000570 use?
Our models discount Changchai Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Changchai Co Ltd that is -6.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Changchai Co Ltd (000570) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Changchai Co Ltd grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies -6.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Changchai Co Ltd (000570) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Changchai Co Ltd (-6.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.41 %: that much free cash flow Changchai Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changchai Co Ltd it is ¥3.14 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥5.31. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changchai Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 000570 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥5.31, fair value ¥3.14, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000570?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥5.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.14). For Changchai Co Ltd the two are ¥2.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changchai Co Ltd worth?
The market values Changchai Co Ltd at about 3.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥5.31; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.14 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of 000570?
Changchai Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.14 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 21.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changchai Co Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000570 from its 52-week high?
Changchai Co Ltd trades at ¥5.31, about 22% below its 52-week high of ¥6.81 and 14% above the low of ¥4.67 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changchai Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changchai Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥5.31, calculated fair value ¥3.14 (−41%), Quality Score 62/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000570 calculated?
We run Changchai Co Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.14, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Changchai Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥5.31. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.14, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changchai Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥3.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Changchai Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
The market capitalisation of Changchai Co Ltd is 3.7B CNY (≈ $559M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changchai Co Ltd is 0.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
Earnings per share at Changchai Co Ltd are ¥0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
The dividend yield of Changchai Co Ltd is 0.4% (payout 18.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
The net margin of Changchai Co Ltd is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changchai Co Ltd is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changchai Co Ltd is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
The operating margin of Changchai Co Ltd is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
Revenue at Changchai Co Ltd is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Changchai Co Ltd (000570)?
Earnings per share at Changchai Co Ltd are growing +70.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Changchai Co Ltd (000570) hold?
Changchai Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 969M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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