Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc ¥1.94, price ¥9.75, upside -80.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value ¥1.94 · Strongly overvalued (−80.1%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −29.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 34.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers(7/13)
!Narrow moat43/100
!Insider activity40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥7.50 – ¥19.72 · fair‑value band ¥1.45 – ¥2.42 · the ¥9.75 price screens above the ¥1.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc. engages in securities business in China.
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Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc. engages in securities business in China. It is involved in the securities brokerage; securities trading business; agency sale of financial products; future brokerage; investment banking; securities underwriting and sponsorship; financial consultancy; asset management; fund management; investment consulting; and private equity and alternative investment businesses. Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc. was formerly known as Guangdong Jintai Development Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc. in July 2001. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Qingyuan, China.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712) currently trades at ¥9.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.94, implying the stock looks roughly 402.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 20 models at a data quality of 82/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: ¥1.45 (bear) to ¥2.42 (bull), the price of ¥9.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc reported revenue of 354M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −26.6%/yr. Reported net income was 283M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 8.7B CNY (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 23.8 · P/S ratio 19.0 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4100 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 80.0% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −80%, 000712 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥1.45Fair Value ¥1.94Bull ¥2.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3055 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−63.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −19.0% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+39.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+32.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.32.7% vs −3.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → −2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−32.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −33.9% a year for the price.
Compare Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 462 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−80.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.6% · Above median
Return on assets1.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)34.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−7.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth411.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.43× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)23.8× · Pricier than median
P/B3.26× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)8.34× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF6.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 98
PAST (return on equity)35· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)29· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000712
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.94 versus a price of ¥9.75, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000712?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc is ¥1.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.75.
What is the quality score of 000712?
Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.45, optimistic scenario ¥2.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.94, about −80% upside versus a price of ¥9.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.45, optimistic scenario ¥2.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc pay a dividend?
Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -32.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -29.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000712 use?
Our models discount Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc that is -32.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc grew -29.6 % a year. The price currently implies -32.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (-32.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.45 %: that much free cash flow Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc it is ¥1.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥9.75. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000712 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥9.75, fair value ¥1.94, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000712?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.94). For Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc the two are ¥7.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc worth?
The market values Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc at about 8.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.75; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000712?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc: cautious scenario ¥1.45, base ¥1.94, optimistic ¥2.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥9.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000712?
Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 8.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 1.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000712 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc trades at ¥9.75, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥14.71 and 18% above the low of ¥8.27 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥9.75, calculated fair value ¥1.94 (−80%), Quality Score 60/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000712 calculated?
We run Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was ¥9.75. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.94, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc is 8.7B CNY (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc is 19.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc are ¥0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
The dividend yield of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc is 6.9% (payout 163%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
The net margin of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc is 80.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc is −7.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
Revenue at Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc is growing +411% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc are growing +340% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc (000712) hold?
Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc holds more cash than debt, 3.0B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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