Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd stock ¥10.85, price ¥18.47, that is 41.2% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.61 – ¥30.17 · fair‑value band ¥8.77 – ¥12.28 · the ¥18.47 price screens above the ¥10.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacturing, maintenance, and service of military and civilian aero-engines and gas turbine control systems in China and internationally.
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The company also provides civilian aviation components, such as aero-engine rocker arms, fuel system valve assemblies, flight control systems, engine pump housing assemblies, and other precision parts.
In addition, it offers control system technology derivative products, such as electro-hydraulic actuators for ground combat vehicles, key components for missile power control systems, high-precision solenoid valves for electromechanical and hydraulic control, and sensors.
The company was formerly known as AVIC Aero-Engine Controls Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.,Ltd. in April 2017. Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Wuxi, China.
Stock analysis
Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738) currently trades at ¥18.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.85, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥7.12 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥18.47 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.98, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥8.77 (bear) to ¥12.28 (bull), the price of ¥18.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd reported revenue of 5.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was 334M CNY in FY2025, compounding −9.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 24.7B CNY (≈ $3.7B) Mid · P/E ratio 153.9 · P/S ratio 4.84 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −41%, 000738 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥8.77Fair Value ¥10.85Bull¥12.28
Price ¥18.47 · Downside -41.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0370 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥3.96¥4.99¥6.7282
Growth DCF¥3.96¥4.91¥6.4980
Residual Income¥6.70¥6.65¥6.8276
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥3.96¥4.99¥6.7282
5Y Revenue Exit¥4.84¥6.76¥9.3973
5Y EBITDA Exit¥7.43¥12.00¥17.7774
5Y P/E Exit¥5.51¥8.11¥11.0871
10Y Revenue Exit¥4.43¥6.15¥8.7967
10Y EBITDA Exit¥6.22¥9.93¥15.6667
10Y P/E Exit¥4.96¥7.12¥10.1864
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥1.73¥7.54¥10.3264
Lynch FV¥1.94¥2.78¥3.6161
PEG = 1.0¥1.94¥2.78¥3.6157
EPV¥5.08¥5.49¥5.8574
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥1.56¥3.22¥5.0566
DDM Multi-Stage¥1.56¥2.73¥3.3867
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥4.00¥5.34¥6.6763
P/S Multiple¥3.24¥4.32¥5.4058
P/B Multiple¥20.18¥26.90¥33.6355
EV/EBIT¥5.96¥7.23¥8.5166
EV/EBITDA¥9.26¥11.64¥14.0167
EV/Revenue¥4.87¥6.03¥7.2054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥3.68¥5.57¥6.9655
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥3.96¥4.91¥6.4980
Rev-Margin DCF¥4.84¥6.69¥9.0373
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥6.70¥6.65¥6.8276
ROIC Compounder¥5.08¥5.49¥5.8572
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥3.22¥4.60¥5.9867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.2% vs 3.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+46.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.3% a year for the price.
Compare Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−41.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000738
Frequently asked questions
Is Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥10.85 versus a price of ¥18.47, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000738?
Our model-based fair value for Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd is ¥10.85 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥18.47.
What is the quality score of 000738?
Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥10.85 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥8.77, optimistic scenario ¥12.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥10.85, about 41% lower versus a price of ¥18.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥8.77, optimistic scenario ¥12.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.077 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 26, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2013. The payout ratio is 64.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.41 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +46.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000738 use?
Our models discount Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd that is +46.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +46.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (+46.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.58 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd it is ¥10.85 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥18.47. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 000738 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥18.47, fair value ¥10.85, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000738?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥18.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥10.85). For Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd the two are ¥7.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd worth?
The market values Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd at about 24.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥18.47; our models calculate a fair value of ¥10.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000738?
Our models span a range for Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥8.77, base ¥10.85, optimistic ¥12.28 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥18.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000738?
Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 153.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥10.85 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 61.9. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 29.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 1.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000738 from its 52-week high?
Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd trades at ¥18.47, about 37% below its 52-week high of ¥29.32 and 12% above the low of ¥16.54 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥10.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥18.47, calculated fair value ¥10.85 (−41%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000738 calculated?
We run Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥10.85 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was ¥18.47. Our model-based fair value is ¥10.85, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738) come from?
Earnings per share at Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd grew +11.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin +5.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
The market capitalisation of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd is 24.7B CNY (≈ $3.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd is 4.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
Earnings per share at Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd are ¥0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 153.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
The dividend yield of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd is 0.4% (payout 64.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
The net margin of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd is 3.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
The operating margin of Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
Revenue at Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd is growing −7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738)?
Earnings per share at Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd are growing −81.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd (000738) hold?
Aecc Aero Engine Control Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 2.8B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026