MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd stock ¥1.63, price ¥13.95, that is 88.3% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.81 – ¥22.96 · fair‑value band ¥1.22 – ¥2.04 · the ¥13.95 price screens above the ¥1.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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MCC Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co., Ltd engages in the data center business in China.
Show moreShow less
It provides rack rental, network access and rack operation and maintenance services; customization of data centers and modular customization; and standard computer rooms and scattered rental rack services.
The company is also involved in the operation of 50MWp photovoltaic project; solar power generation; and sale of solar products. The company was formerly known as MCC Meili Paper Co., Ltd. and changed its name to MCC Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co. in July 2016.
MCC Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co., Ltd was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Zhongwei, China.
Stock analysis
MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815) currently trades at ¥13.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.63, 88% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥2.26 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥13.95 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥0.1900, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥1.22 (bear) to ¥2.04 (bull), the price of ¥13.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2005: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2005.
MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd reported revenue of 343M CNY in FY2025 versus 1.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound −27.4%/yr. Reported net income was 66.6M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 9.7B CNY (≈ $1.5B) Small · P/E ratio 116.3 · P/S ratio 29.3 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 26.0% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at −88%, 000815 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.1900 to ¥5.71). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥1.22Fair Value ¥1.63Bull¥2.04
Price ¥13.95 · Downside -88.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1019 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2005: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2005.
Revenue growth 1 year
−62.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.7% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Per share before 2005divided by the spin-off factor 1.32
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.0% vs −8.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.9%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.2% a year for the price.
Compare MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−88.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.2% · Above median
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)26.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)30.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−10.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)116.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.00× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)29.30× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow56.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA73.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000815
Frequently asked questions
Is MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.63 versus a price of ¥13.95, about 88% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 000815?
Our model-based fair value for MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is ¥1.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.95.
What is the quality score of 000815?
MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥1.63 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.22, optimistic scenario ¥2.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥1.63, about 88% lower versus a price of ¥13.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.22, optimistic scenario ¥2.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 331M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd pay a dividend?
MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -21.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000815 use?
Our models discount MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd that is +33.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd grew -21.7 % a year. The price currently implies +33.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (+33.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.77 %: that much free cash flow MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd it is ¥1.63 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥13.95. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 000815 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥13.95, fair value ¥1.63, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000815?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥1.63). For MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd the two are ¥12.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd worth?
The market values MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd at about 9.7B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.95; our models calculate a fair value of ¥1.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000815?
Our models span a range for MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.22, base ¥1.63, optimistic ¥2.04 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥13.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000815?
MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 116.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥1.63 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 104.6. Other multiples: P/B 7.0, P/S 29.3, EV/EBITDA 73.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
Balance-sheet figures for MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000815 from its 52-week high?
MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd trades at ¥13.95, about 39% below its 52-week high of ¥22.96 and 29% above the low of ¥10.82 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥1.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥13.95, calculated fair value ¥1.63 (−88%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000815 calculated?
We run MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥1.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥13.95. Our model-based fair value is ¥1.63, about 88% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (72/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
The market capitalisation of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is 9.7B CNY (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is 29.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
Earnings per share at MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd are ¥0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 116.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
The dividend yield of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is 0.2% (payout 18.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
The net margin of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is 26.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is −4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
The operating margin of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is 30.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
Revenue at MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is growing −10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −32.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815)?
Earnings per share at MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd are growing +3.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd (000815) carry?
The net debt of MCC Meili Paper Industry Co Ltd is 102M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026