Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd ¥29.92, price ¥20.24, upside +47.8%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.15 – ¥26.43 · fair‑value band ¥22.07 – ¥37.41 · the ¥20.24 price screens below the ¥29.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd. develops, produces, and sells various types of heavy-duty vehicles, special vehicles, specialized vehicles, engines, transmissions, axles, and other assemblies and automotive components in China. It also offers medium and heavy trucks, light trucks, new energy vehicles, coaches, and light vehicles.
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Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd. develops, produces, and sells various types of heavy-duty vehicles, special vehicles, specialized vehicles, engines, transmissions, axles, and other assemblies and automotive components in China. It also offers medium and heavy trucks, light trucks, new energy vehicles, coaches, and light vehicles. The company provides its products under the Yellow River, SITRAK, and HOWO brand names. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as CNHTC Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd. Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Jinan, China. Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000951) operates as a subsidiary of Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited.
Stock analysis
Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951) currently trades at ¥20.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥29.92, implying the stock looks roughly 32.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥51.85 per share, and 19 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥20.24 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥9.26, and 6 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥22.07 (bear) to ¥37.41 (bull), the price of ¥20.24 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd reported revenue of 57.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 56.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7B CNY in FY2025, compounding +12.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 26.4B CNY (≈ $3.9B) · P/E ratio 13.1 · P/S ratio 0.38 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.55 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 48%, 000951 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥22.07Fair Value ¥29.92Bull ¥37.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.5289 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.5% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 12%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 4%
2025 sits 55% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.5% a year for the price and +7.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+48% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth52% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000951
Frequently asked questions
Is Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥29.92 versus a price of ¥20.24, about +48% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000951?
Our model-based fair value for Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is ¥29.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥20.24.
What is the quality score of 000951?
Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥29.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥22.07, optimistic scenario ¥37.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥29.92, about +48% upside versus a price of ¥20.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥22.07, optimistic scenario ¥37.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 64.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +25.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000951 use?
Our models discount Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd that is +25.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd grew -0.8 % a year. The price currently implies +25.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (+25.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.38 %: that much free cash flow Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd it is ¥29.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ¥20.24. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 000951 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥20.24, fair value ¥29.92, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000951?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥20.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥29.92). For Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd the two are ¥9.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd worth?
The market values Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd at about 26.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ¥20.24; our models calculate a fair value of ¥29.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000951?
Our models span a range for Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥22.07, base ¥29.92, optimistic ¥37.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ¥20.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 000951?
Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥29.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 000951?
The PEG ratio of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is 0.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000951 from its 52-week high?
Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd trades at ¥20.24, about 23% below its 52-week high of ¥26.43 and 24% above the low of ¥16.34 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥29.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ¥20.24, calculated fair value ¥29.92 (+48%), Quality Score 56/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000951 calculated?
We run Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥29.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥20.24. Our model-based fair value is ¥29.92, about +48% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥22.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951) come from?
Earnings per share at Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd grew +13.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin +5.0 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
The market capitalisation of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is 26.4B CNY (≈ $3.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is 0.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
Earnings per share at Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd are ¥1.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
The dividend yield of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is 4.1% (payout 53.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
The net margin of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is 2.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
The operating margin of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
Revenue at Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is growing +52.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951)?
Earnings per share at Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd are growing +50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd (000951) carry?
The net debt of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co Ltd is 110M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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