Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. ¥51.58, price ¥358, upside -85.6%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
51‑month range ¥14.90 – ¥970.00 · fair‑value band ¥38.69 – ¥64.48 · the ¥358.46 price screens above the ¥51.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells storage control chips and modules in China and internationally.
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Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells storage control chips and modules in China and internationally. The company offers solid-state drives, embedded storage, DDR modules, and mobile storage products; flash memory main control chips; fixed hard disks; memory card and storage disk modules; and storage module product application solutions. It also provides solutions for mobile terminals, IoT, personal computers, data centers, security monitoring, in-car electronics, and industrial control. The company's products are used in automotive electronics, new energy vehicles, mobile devices, and security system applications. It also sells its products under Demingli, TWSC, CUSU, NEXDRIVE, and UDSTORE brand. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309) currently trades at ¥358.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥51.58, 85.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥153.36 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥358.46 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥9.66, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥38.69 (bear) to ¥64.48 (bull), the price of ¥358.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. reported revenue of 10.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +77.8%/yr. Reported net income was 688M CNY in FY2025, compounding +62.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 150B CNY (≈ $22.4B) · P/E ratio 20.0 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) ¥17.88 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 90.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −86%, 001309 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥9.66 to ¥153.36). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥38.69Fair Value ¥51.58Bull ¥64.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥13.22 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+126.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+108.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+38.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 7%
2025 sits 699% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 326 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−85.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)90.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets24.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)24.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)53.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth502.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B45.96× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)8.80× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA30.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 88
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 19
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥51.58 versus a price of ¥358.46, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 001309?
Our model-based fair value for Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is ¥51.58 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥358.46.
What is the quality score of 001309?
Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥51.58 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥38.69, optimistic scenario ¥64.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥51.58, about −86% upside versus a price of ¥358.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥38.69, optimistic scenario ¥64.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. it is ¥51.58 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ¥358.46. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 001309 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥358.46, fair value ¥51.58, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 001309?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥358.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥51.58). For Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. the two are ¥306.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. worth?
The market values Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. at about 150B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥358.46; our models calculate a fair value of ¥51.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 001309?
Our models span a range for Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd.: cautious scenario ¥38.69, base ¥51.58, optimistic ¥64.48 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ¥358.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 001309?
Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥51.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 46.0, P/S 8.8, EV/EBITDA 30.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 90.7%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 001309 from its 52-week high?
Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. trades at ¥358.46, about 63% below its 52-week high of ¥970.00 and 105% above the low of ¥174.80 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥51.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ¥358.46, calculated fair value ¥51.58 (−86%), Quality Score 36/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 001309 calculated?
We run Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥51.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ¥358.46. Our model-based fair value is ¥51.58, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥64.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
The market capitalisation of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is 150B CNY (≈ $22.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. are ¥17.88 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
The dividend yield of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is 0.1% (payout 2.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
The net margin of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is 90.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
The operating margin of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is 53.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
Revenue at Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is growing +502% versus a year earlier (3y avg +108%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309)?
Earnings per share at Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. are growing +140% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309) generate?
The free cash flow of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is −2.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. (001309) carry?
The net debt of Shenzhen Techwinsemi Technology Co. Ltd. is 3.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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