RiseSun Real Estate Development Co (002146) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · CN · Market cap 5.4B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +2.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.6200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥0.2300 to ¥0.6200). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.07 – ¥6.52 · fair‑value band ¥0.2300 – ¥0.6200 · the ¥1.11 price screens above the ¥0.4300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
RiseSun Real Estate Development Co (002146) currently trades at ¥1.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.4300, implying the stock looks roughly 61.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, RiseSun Real Estate Development Co generated revenue of 22.8B CNY at a net margin of -40.3%. Revenue declined 55.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -77.5%. Net debt stands at 10.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.2300 (bear case) to ¥0.6200 (bull case); at ¥1.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -61%, 002146 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥0.8700) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.4100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
RiseSun Real Estate Development Co.,Ltd engages in development and sale of real estate properties in China. The company develops commercial, urban housing, tourism real estate, health care properties, and industrial parks. It also offers real estate funds and commercial banking services; provides property management service; and operates hotels.
Full company description
RiseSun Real Estate Development Co.,Ltd engages in development and sale of real estate properties in China. The company develops commercial, urban housing, tourism real estate, health care properties, and industrial parks. It also offers real estate funds and commercial banking services; provides property management service; and operates hotels. RiseSun Real Estate Development Co.,Ltd was founded in 1996 and is based in Langfang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
RiseSun Real Estate Development Co reported revenue of ¥26.7B in FY2025 versus ¥47.2B in FY2021, a compound −13.3%/yr. Reported net income was −¥9.4B in FY2025.
002146 screens 61% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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