Hongbaoli Group (002165) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 5.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥0.4800 to ¥3.25 (+577.1%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −8.3% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range ¥5.64 – ¥14.12 · fair‑value band ¥2.03 – ¥4.33 · the ¥6.20 price screens above the ¥3.25 fair value. As of Jul 22, 2026.
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Hongbaoli Group (002165) currently trades at ¥6.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.25, implying the stock looks roughly 47.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hongbaoli Group generated revenue of 2.9B CNY at a net margin of -1.0%. Revenue grew 13.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.4%. Net debt stands at 1.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.03 (bear case) to ¥4.33 (bull case); at ¥6.20, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -48%, 002165 screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Hongbaoli Group Corporation, Ltd. researches, develops, produces, and markets polyol and isopropanolamine series of products in China. It offers monomer polyether; formulated polyol for use in refrigerators, freezers, water heaters, containers, construction panels, and pipelines; and isopropanolamines for use in surfactant, pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates, metal working fluids, gas treating, industrial and consumer cleaners, cement additive, coating, personal care products, polyurethane, and other applications. The company also provides propylene oxide for use in the synthesis of polyether polyols, propylene glycol and ethers, lubricants, and surfactants; dicumyl peroxide for use in vulcanizing agents, crosslinking agents, curing agent, and initiating agents; polyurethane insulation panels; and dipropylene glycol. In addition, it offers production technology services, such as technology licensing, process tech package preparation, start-up guidance, and staff training. …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hongbaoli Group reported revenue of ¥2.8B in FY2025 versus ¥3.4B in FY2021, a compound −5.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥17.3M in FY2025, compounding −12.6%/yr from FY2021.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.