Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd stock ¥2.83, price ¥6.11, upside -53.7%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥2.45 – ¥14.12 · fair‑value band ¥2.12 – ¥2.83 · the ¥6.11 price screens above the ¥2.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Hongbaoli Group Corporation, Ltd. researches, develops, produces, and markets polyol and isopropanolamine series of products in China.
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It offers monomer polyether; formulated polyol for use in refrigerators, freezers, water heaters, containers, construction panels, and pipelines; and isopropanolamines for use in surfactant, pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates, metal working fluids, gas treating, industrial and consumer cleaners, cement additive, coating, personal care products, polyurethane, and other applications.
The company also provides propylene oxide for use in the synthesis of polyether polyols, propylene glycol and ethers, lubricants, and surfactants; dicumyl peroxide for use in vulcanizing agents, crosslinking agents, curing agent, and initiating agents; polyurethane insulation panels; and dipropylene glycol.
In addition, it offers production technology services, such as technology licensing, process tech package preparation, start-up guidance, and staff training. The company was formerly known as Nanjing Hongbaoli Corporation, Ltd. and changed its name to Hongbaoli Group Corporation, Ltd. in May 2015.
Hongbaoli Group Corporation, Ltd. was founded in 1987 and is based in Nanjing, China.
Stock analysis
Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165) currently trades at ¥6.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.83, 53.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥1.94 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥6.11 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at ¥0.3600, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.12 (bear) to ¥2.83 (bull), the price of ¥6.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd reported revenue of 2.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 17.3M CNY in FY2025, compounding −12.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.5B CNY (≈ $675M) Small · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0200 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin −0.5% · Return on equity −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% · Operating margin 7.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −54%, 002165 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥2.12Fair Value ¥2.83Bull¥2.83
Price ¥6.11 · Upside -53.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−30.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30.9% vs −18.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.0% a year for the price.
Compare Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 338 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−53.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−0.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)7.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)34.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.22× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.46× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow56.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA31.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.73× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 63
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.83 versus a price of ¥6.11, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002165?
Our model-based fair value for Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is ¥2.83 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥6.11.
What is the quality score of 002165?
Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.83 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.12, optimistic scenario ¥2.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.83, about −54% upside versus a price of ¥6.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.12, optimistic scenario ¥2.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.49% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +37.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.3 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002165 use?
Our models discount Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd that is +37.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd grew +1.3 % a year. The price currently implies +37.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (+37.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.78 %: that much free cash flow Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd it is ¥2.83 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of ¥6.11. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 002165 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥6.11, fair value ¥2.83, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002165?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥6.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.83). For Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd the two are ¥3.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd worth?
The market values Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd at about 4.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is ¥6.11; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002165?
Our models span a range for Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.12, base ¥2.83, optimistic ¥2.83 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price ¥6.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 002165?
The PEG ratio of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is 0.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity −0.8%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002165 from its 52-week high?
Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd trades at ¥6.11, about 57% below its 52-week high of ¥14.12 and 8% above the low of ¥5.64 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Rongsheng Petrochemical Co, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price ¥6.11, calculated fair value ¥2.83 (−54%), Quality Score 50/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002165 calculated?
We run Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥2.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was ¥6.11. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.83, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
The market capitalisation of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is 4.5B CNY (≈ $675M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is 1.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
Earnings per share at Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd are ¥−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
The dividend yield of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
The net margin of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is −0.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
The operating margin of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
Revenue at Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is growing +34.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165)?
Earnings per share at Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd are growing +548% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd (002165) carry?
The net debt of Nanjing Hongbaoli Corp Ltd is 1.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 27, 2026