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Yibin Tianyuan Group (002386) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 7.7B CNY

YT Yibin Tianyuan Group 002386 · SHE
Price¥5.92
Fair Value¥1.15
Upside-80.6%
Quality32/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.3% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 24/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥0.8600 – ¥1.43 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Share price −3.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 81% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥13.20 ¥3.54 Fair Value ¥1.15 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.54 – ¥13.20 · fair‑value band ¥0.8600 – ¥1.43 · the ¥5.92 price screens above the ¥1.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Yibin Tianyuan Group (002386) currently trades at ¥5.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.15, implying the stock looks roughly 80.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Yibin Tianyuan Group generated revenue of 11.8B CNY at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue grew 16.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. Net debt stands at 6.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥0.8600 (bear case) to ¥1.43 (bull case); at ¥5.92, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -81%, 002386 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥3.96 ¥3.73 ¥2.71 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.0200 ¥0.0800 72
Gordon GGM ¥1.33 ¥1.91 ¥2.49 70
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.4600 ¥0.9400 ¥1.18 54
EPV ¥0.0200 ¥0.0800 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.33 ¥1.91 ¥2.49 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.33 ¥1.85 ¥2.43 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥0.8600 ¥1.15 ¥1.43 63
P/S Multiple ¥0.8600 ¥1.15 ¥1.43 58
P/B Multiple ¥0.8600 ¥1.15 ¥1.43 55
EV/EBIT ¥0.5800 ¥0.9600 ¥1.33 53
EV/EBITDA ¥3.60 ¥4.98 ¥6.36 54
EV/Revenue ¥0.4300 ¥0.8500 ¥1.27 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.91 ¥3.90 ¥5.82 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥3.96 ¥3.73 ¥2.71 76
ROIC Compounder ¥0.0200 ¥0.0800 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.6300 ¥0.9100 ¥1.18 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥3.90) versus Earnings-Based (¥0.0200). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 11.8B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +16.4%
Net margin 1.3%
Return on equity 1.3%
Free cash flow −1.3B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 49.0
More key figures
Operating margin 4.9%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.1200
EPS growth (YoY) +576%
Net debt 6.8B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 4
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Yibin Tianyuan Group Co., Ltd. produces and distributes chlor-alkali chemicals in China and internationally. The company's products include suspension polymerized polyvinyl chloride resin, ion-exchange membrane method sodium hydroxide, hydrazine hydrate, trichloroethylene, cement, phosphorus, titanium dioxide, lithium iron phosphate, ferric phosphate, …

Full company description

Yibin Tianyuan Group Co., Ltd. produces and distributes chlor-alkali chemicals in China and internationally. The company's products include suspension polymerized polyvinyl chloride resin, ion-exchange membrane method sodium hydroxide, hydrazine hydrate, trichloroethylene, cement, phosphorus, titanium dioxide, lithium iron phosphate, ferric phosphate, cement sodium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary cathode material, flooring, modified granule, and polystyrene products. Yibin Tianyuan Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is based in Xuzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yibin Tianyuan Group reported revenue of ¥11.3B in FY2025 versus ¥18.8B in FY2021, a compound −12.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥87.8M in FY2025, compounding −39.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 14/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
11.3B CNY
Latest YoY
−15.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−17.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−12.2%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y)
+7.4%
Revenue −12.0%/yr
FY21 ¥18.8B
FY22 ¥20.3B
FY23 ¥18.4B
FY24 ¥13.4B
FY25 ¥11.3B
Net income −39.3%/yr
FY21 ¥645M
FY22 ¥551M
FY23 ¥40.0M
FY24 −¥460M
FY25 ¥87.8M

002386 screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yibin Tianyuan Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002386

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −81% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.43× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 49.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.01× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.65× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.8× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 82 · sector 19
PAST 5 · sector 23
HEALTH 79 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

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Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥70.04 ¥68.03 -3%
Novozymes A/S NSISB kr 428.20 kr 179.66 -58%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,689 ₹668.81 -75%
Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS ₹18,236 ₹2,793 -85%
Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND ₹1,560 ₹351.84 -77%
PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA 1,805 IDR 2,888 IDR +60%
Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA ₹7,115 ₹757.93 -89%
Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT ₹493.70 ₹164.29 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Yibin Tianyuan Group (002386) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.15 versus a price of ¥5.92, about −81% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002386?
Our model-based fair value for Yibin Tianyuan Group is ¥1.15 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥5.92.
What is the quality score of 002386?
Yibin Tianyuan Group has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Yibin Tianyuan Group (002386)?
Yibin Tianyuan Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002386?
The net profit margin of Yibin Tianyuan Group is about 1.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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