Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd stock ¥8.02, price ¥38.39, upside -79.1%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥10.00 – ¥76.68 · fair‑value band ¥5.25 – ¥12.36 · the ¥38.39 price screens above the ¥8.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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Baoding Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the non-ferrous metal mining and selection, and the design, research, development, production, and sales of electronic copper foil and copper clad laminate products in China.
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It offers gold mining and selection; castings and forgings; scrap metal recycling; and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing services. Its products are used in ships, power, engineering machinery and marine engineering.
The company was formerly known as Baoding Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Baoding Technology Co., Ltd. in February 2016. Baoding Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552) currently trades at ¥38.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥8.02, 79.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥13.79 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥38.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.01, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥5.25 (bear) to ¥12.36 (bull), the price of ¥38.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd reported revenue of 3.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 353M CNY in FY2021, a compound +72.7%/yr. Reported net income was 124M CNY in FY2025, compounding +110.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 15.0B CNY (≈ $2.3B) Mid · P/E ratio 62.9 · P/S ratio 3.84 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6100 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 153% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −79%, 002552 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥5.25Fair Value ¥8.02Bull¥12.36
Price ¥38.39 · Upside -79.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3347 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.6% vs 26.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+59.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +56.4% a year for the price.
Compare Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 247 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−79.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)66.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)62.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B10.01× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.84× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow130.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA22.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 65
PAST (return on equity)49· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002552
Frequently asked questions
Is Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥8.02 versus a price of ¥38.39, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002552?
Our model-based fair value for Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is ¥8.02 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥38.39.
What is the quality score of 002552?
Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥8.02 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥5.25, optimistic scenario ¥12.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥8.02, about −79% upside versus a price of ¥38.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥5.25, optimistic scenario ¥12.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +59.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.7 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002552 use?
Our models discount Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.93, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd that is +59.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd grew +7.7 % a year. The price currently implies +59.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (+59.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.74 %: that much free cash flow Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd it is ¥8.02 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of ¥38.39. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, 002552 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥38.39, fair value ¥8.02, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002552?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥38.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥8.02). For Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd the two are ¥30.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd worth?
The market values Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd at about 15.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is ¥38.39; our models calculate a fair value of ¥8.02 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002552?
Our models span a range for Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥5.25, base ¥8.02, optimistic ¥12.36 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price ¥38.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002552?
Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.9 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥8.02 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 10.0, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 22.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
Balance-sheet figures for Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002552 from its 52-week high?
Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd trades at ¥38.39, about 50% below its 52-week high of ¥76.68 and 153% above the low of ¥15.15 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥8.02 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price ¥38.39, calculated fair value ¥8.02 (−79%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002552 calculated?
We run Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥8.02, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥38.39. Our model-based fair value is ¥8.02, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥5.25 to ¥12.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
The market capitalisation of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 15.0B CNY (≈ $2.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 3.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
Earnings per share at Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd are ¥0.6100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 62.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
The dividend yield of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 0.5% (payout 32.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
The net margin of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 6.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
The operating margin of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
Revenue at Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is growing +66.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552)?
Earnings per share at Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd are growing +18.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd (002552) carry?
The net debt of Baoding Heavy Industry Co Ltd is 1.8B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 25, 2026