China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of China Motor Bus Co Ltd HK$48.74, price HK$59.00, upside -17.4%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$44.69 – HK$97.05 · fair‑value band HK$28.49 – HK$76.60 · the HK$59.00 price screens above the HK$48.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Motor Bus Company, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. It operates through Property Development and Investment, and Treasury Management segments.
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China Motor Bus Company, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. It operates through Property Development and Investment, and Treasury Management segments. The company is also involved in the development, construction, sale, and marketing of the retail, office, and apartment properties; and manages investments, financial assets, and other treasury operations. China Motor Bus Company, Limited was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in North Point, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) currently trades at HK$59.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$48.74, implying the stock looks roughly 21.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$100.84 per share, and 5 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$59.00 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$30.86, and 7 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$28.49 (bear) to HK$76.60 (bull), the price of HK$59.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
China Motor Bus Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$113M in FY2025 versus HK$91.9M in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$185M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.7B (≈ $340M) · P/S ratio 18.1 · EPS (TTM) HK$−3.32 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin −147% · Return on equity −3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% · Operating margin 68.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −17%, 0026 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$28.49Fair Value HK$48.74Bull HK$76.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
75.4% (2020) → 64.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−147% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)69% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−23% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Motor Bus Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0026
Frequently asked questions
Is China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$48.74 versus a price of HK$59.00, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0026?
Our model-based fair value for China Motor Bus Co Ltd is HK$48.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$59.00.
What is the quality score of 0026?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$48.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$28.49, optimistic scenario HK$76.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Motor Bus Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$48.74, about −17% upside versus a price of HK$59.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$28.49, optimistic scenario HK$76.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$146M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Motor Bus Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Motor Bus Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0026 use?
Our models discount China Motor Bus Co Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Motor Bus Co Ltd that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Motor Bus Co Ltd grew -5.2 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Motor Bus Co Ltd (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.15 %: that much free cash flow China Motor Bus Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Motor Bus Co Ltd it is HK$48.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$59.00. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Motor Bus Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0026 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$59.00, fair value HK$48.74, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0026?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$59.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$48.74). For China Motor Bus Co Ltd the two are HK$10.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Motor Bus Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Motor Bus Co Ltd at about HK$2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$59.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$48.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0026?
Our models span a range for China Motor Bus Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$28.49, base HK$48.74, optimistic HK$76.60 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$59.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Motor Bus Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0026 from its 52-week high?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd trades at HK$59.00, about 4% below its 52-week high of HK$61.54 and 5% above the low of HK$56.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$48.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Motor Bus Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Motor Bus Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$59.00, calculated fair value HK$48.74 (−17%), Quality Score 69/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0026 calculated?
We run China Motor Bus Co Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$48.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. China Motor Bus Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$59.00. Our model-based fair value is HK$48.74, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Motor Bus Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$28.49 to HK$76.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of China Motor Bus Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The market capitalisation of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is HK$2.7B (≈ $340M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is 18.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Earnings per share at China Motor Bus Co Ltd are HK$−3.32. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The dividend yield of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is 0.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The net margin of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is −147% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The operating margin of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is 68.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Revenue at China Motor Bus Co Ltd is growing −23.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Earnings per share at China Motor Bus Co Ltd are growing +1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) hold?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$100.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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