China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Motor Bus Co Ltd stock HK$55.67, price HK$57.60, that is 3.4% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$42.64 – HK$84.97 · fair‑value band HK$50.08 – HK$60.66 · the HK$57.60 price screens above the HK$55.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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China Motor Bus Company, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. It operates through Property Development and Investment, and Treasury Management segments.
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The company is also involved in the development, construction, sale, and marketing of the retail, office, and apartment properties; and manages investments, financial assets, and other treasury operations.
China Motor Bus Company, Limited was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in North Point, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) currently trades at HK$57.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$55.67, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$63.76 per share, and 2 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$57.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$29.71, and 8 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$50.08 (bear) to HK$60.66 (bull), the price of HK$57.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
China Motor Bus Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$93.1M in FY2026 versus HK$79.1M in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$120M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap HK$2.6B (≈ $332M) Small · P/S ratio 19.8 · EPS (TTM) HK$−3.32 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin −91.0% · Return on equity −1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 69.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −3%, 0026 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$50.08Fair Value HK$55.67BullHK$60.66
Price HK$57.60 · Downside -3.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.29/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −11.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
75.4% (2020) → 64.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 114 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−3.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−1.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−91.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)69.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−17.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Motor Bus Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0026
Frequently asked questions
Is China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$55.67 versus a price of HK$57.60, about 3% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0026?
Our model-based fair value for China Motor Bus Co Ltd is HK$55.67 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$57.60.
What is the quality score of 0026?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$55.67 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$50.08, optimistic scenario HK$60.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Motor Bus Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$55.67, about 3% lower versus a price of HK$57.60 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$50.08, optimistic scenario HK$60.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$132M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does China Motor Bus Co Ltd pay a dividend?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.87% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) and when is the ex-dividend date?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd pays a dividend of HK$0.5 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Jan 6, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1990. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.71 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Motor Bus Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0026 use?
Our models discount China Motor Bus Co Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Motor Bus Co Ltd that is +4.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Motor Bus Co Ltd grew +0.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Motor Bus Co Ltd (+4.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.22 %: that much free cash flow China Motor Bus Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Motor Bus Co Ltd it is HK$55.67 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of HK$57.60. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is China Motor Bus Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 0026 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$57.60, fair value HK$55.67, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0026?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$57.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$55.67). For China Motor Bus Co Ltd the two are HK$1.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Motor Bus Co Ltd worth?
The market values China Motor Bus Co Ltd at about HK$2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is HK$57.60; our models calculate a fair value of HK$55.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0026?
Our models span a range for China Motor Bus Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$50.08, base HK$55.67, optimistic HK$60.66 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price HK$57.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Motor Bus Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −1.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0026 from its 52-week high?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd trades at HK$57.60, about 3% below its 52-week high of HK$59.65 and 5% above the low of HK$54.86 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$55.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Motor Bus Co Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Henderson Land Development Company, Swiss Prime Site AG, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Motor Bus Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price HK$57.60, calculated fair value HK$55.67 (−3%), Quality Score 61/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0026 calculated?
We run China Motor Bus Co Ltd through 10 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$55.67 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. China Motor Bus Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$57.60. Our model-based fair value is HK$55.67, about 3% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Motor Bus Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of China Motor Bus Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The market capitalisation of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is HK$2.6B (≈ $332M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is 19.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Earnings per share at China Motor Bus Co Ltd are HK$−3.32. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The dividend yield of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is 0.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The net margin of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is −91.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is −1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
The operating margin of China Motor Bus Co Ltd is 69.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Revenue at China Motor Bus Co Ltd is growing −17.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026)?
Earnings per share at China Motor Bus Co Ltd are growing +1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Motor Bus Co Ltd (0026) hold?
China Motor Bus Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$1.4B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 7, 2026