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China Motor Bus Company (0026) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$2.6B

CM China Motor Bus Company 0026 · HK
PriceHK$58.75
Fair ValueHK$30.86
Upside-47.5%
Quality69/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -146.9% net margin
generates free cash flow
0.88% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 35/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$23.70 – HK$38.03 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price +1.5% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 47% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$38.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$97.05 HK$44.69 Fair Value HK$30.86 Jun 2020 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$44.69 – HK$97.05 · fair‑value band HK$23.70 – HK$38.03 · the HK$58.75 price screens above the HK$30.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

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Analysis

China Motor Bus Company (0026) currently trades at HK$58.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$30.86, implying the stock looks roughly 47.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$146M. Revenue declined 23.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$100.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$23.70 (bear case) to HK$38.03 (bull case); at HK$58.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -47%, 0026 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$27.30 HK$52.09 HK$93.17 72
Gordon GGM HK$62.27 HK$124.09 HK$187.90 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$62.27 HK$107.24 HK$130.98 61
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$28.24 HK$47.70 HK$97.40 38
5Y Revenue Exit HK$18.91 HK$31.80 HK$50.85 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$24.45 HK$44.23 HK$71.95 41
10Y Revenue Exit HK$21.29 HK$35.57 HK$56.77 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$25.49 HK$45.13 HK$78.44 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$62.27 HK$124.09 HK$187.90 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$62.27 HK$107.24 HK$130.98 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$28.80 HK$37.66 HK$46.53 53
EV/EBITDA HK$23.70 HK$30.86 HK$38.03 54
EV/Revenue HK$14.50 HK$19.76 HK$25.03 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$75.26 HK$100.84 HK$150.51 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$27.30 HK$52.09 HK$93.17 72

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$107.24) versus Multiples (HK$30.86). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$146M
Revenue growth (YoY) -23.1%
Net margin -147%
Return on equity -3.1%
Free cash flow HK$84.0M FY2025
Operating margin 68.6%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) HK$-6.64
Dividend yield 0.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +1.0%
Net cash HK$100.0M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Motor Bus Company, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. It operates through Property Development and Investment, and Treasury Management segments.

Full company description

China Motor Bus Company, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property development and investment activities in Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. It operates through Property Development and Investment, and Treasury Management segments. The company is also involved in the development, construction, sale, and marketing of the retail, office, and apartment properties; and manages investments, financial assets, and other treasury operations. China Motor Bus Company, Limited was incorporated in 1933 and is headquartered in North Point, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Motor Bus Company reported revenue of HK$113M in FY2025 versus HK$91.9M in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$185M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$113M
Latest YoY
+63.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.2%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.1%
Revenue +5.4%/yr
FY21 HK$91.9M
FY22 HK$79.1M
FY23 HK$113M
FY24 HK$69.6M
FY25 HK$113M
Net income
FY21 −HK$17.9M
FY22 HK$72.3M
FY23 −HK$155M
FY24 −HK$262M
FY25 −HK$185M

0026 screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Motor Bus Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0026

Peer Group

Real Estate - Diversified · 137 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −48% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -147% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 69% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -23% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.27× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 3.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 46
FUTURE 0 · sector 32
PAST 0 · sector 17
HEALTH 0 · sector 75
DIVIDEND 18 · sector 45

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Motor Bus Company (0026) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$30.86 versus a price of HK$58.75, about −47% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0026?
Our model-based fair value for China Motor Bus Company is HK$30.86 (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$58.75.
What is the quality score of 0026?
China Motor Bus Company has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Motor Bus Company (0026)?
China Motor Bus Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$146M (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0026?
The net profit margin of China Motor Bus Company is about -146.9%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Motor Bus Company pay a dividend?
China Motor Bus Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.88% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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