Parq Arauco (PARAUCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Parq Arauco CLP 5,629, price CLP 3,909, upside +44.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 594.90 CLP – 4,415 CLP · fair‑value band 2,347 CLP – 9,942 CLP · the 3,909 CLP price screens below the 5,629 CLP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Parque Arauco S.A., together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, operates, and manages multi-format real estate assets in Chile, Peru, and Colombia. The company owns and operates shopping center formats, including regional, neighborhood, outlet malls, and strip malls.
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Parque Arauco S.A., together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, operates, and manages multi-format real estate assets in Chile, Peru, and Colombia. The company owns and operates shopping center formats, including regional, neighborhood, outlet malls, and strip malls. Its tenants include department stores, home improvement stores, supermarkets, restaurants, movie theaters, health centers, and smaller stores. It also owns rental apartments, offices, and hotels. The company was formerly known as Cocentral Compañía de Centros Comerciales S.A. and changed its name to Parque Arauco S.A. in 1992. Parque Arauco S.A. was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Santiago, Chile.
Stock analysis
Parq Arauco (PARAUCO) currently trades at 3,909 CLP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5,629 CLP, implying the stock looks roughly 30.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 7,549 CLP per share, and 6 of the 15 models we run sit above the 3,909 CLP price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1,163 CLP, and 9 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 2,347 CLP (bear) to 9,942 CLP (bull), the price of 3,909 CLP sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Parq Arauco reported revenue of 384B CLP in FY2025 versus 170B CLP in FY2021, a compound +22.6%/yr. Reported net income was 150B CLP in FY2025, compounding +59.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 3.5T CLP (≈ $3.5B) · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 8.63 · EPS (TTM) 177.06 CLP · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 39.1% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 44%, PARAUCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2,347 CLPFair Value 5,629 CLPBull 9,942 CLP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (89.29 CLP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in CLP ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in CLP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+46.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+44.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.47% → 70%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Chile: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 4.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.9% a year for the price and +5.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 132 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+44% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)37% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)71% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.97× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Parq Arauco Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PARAUCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Parq Arauco (PARAUCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5,629 CLP versus a price of 3,909 CLP, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PARAUCO?
Our model-based fair value for Parq Arauco is 5,629 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3,909 CLP.
What is the quality score of PARAUCO?
Parq Arauco has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5,629 CLP (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,347 CLP, optimistic scenario 9,942 CLP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Parq Arauco stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5,629 CLP, about +44% upside versus a price of 3,909 CLP (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2,347 CLP, optimistic scenario 9,942 CLP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
Parq Arauco reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 437B CLP (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Parq Arauco pay a dividend?
Parq Arauco currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Parq Arauco would have to grow free cash flow by +9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PARAUCO use?
Our models discount Parq Arauco at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for Chile. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Parq Arauco that is +9.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Parq Arauco (PARAUCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Parq Arauco grew +25.0 % a year. The price currently implies +9.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Parq Arauco (+9.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.63 %: that much free cash flow Parq Arauco produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Parq Arauco it is 5,629 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 3,909 CLP. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Parq Arauco stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PARAUCO trades below its calculated fair value: price 3,909 CLP, fair value 5,629 CLP, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PARAUCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3,909 CLP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5,629 CLP). For Parq Arauco the two are 1,720 CLP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Parq Arauco worth?
The market values Parq Arauco at about 3.5T CLP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 3,909 CLP; our models calculate a fair value of 5,629 CLP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PARAUCO?
Our models span a range for Parq Arauco: cautious scenario 2,347 CLP, base 5,629 CLP, optimistic 9,942 CLP per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 3,909 CLP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PARAUCO?
Parq Arauco trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5,629 CLP is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 2.2, P/S 8.1, EV/EBITDA 15.6.
What is the PEG ratio of PARAUCO?
The PEG ratio of Parq Arauco is 0.76 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Parq Arauco (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.97 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PARAUCO from its 52-week high?
Parq Arauco trades at 3,909 CLP, about 11% below its 52-week high of 4,415 CLP and 72% above the low of 2,277 CLP (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5,629 CLP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Parq Arauco?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Parq Arauco stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 3,909 CLP, calculated fair value 5,629 CLP (+44%), Quality Score 63/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PARAUCO calculated?
We run Parq Arauco through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5,629 CLP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Parq Arauco currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 3,909 CLP. Our model-based fair value is 5,629 CLP, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Parq Arauco right now?
The model range is unusually wide (2,347 CLP to 9,942 CLP). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Parq Arauco
How large is the market capitalisation of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
The market capitalisation of Parq Arauco is 3.5T CLP (≈ $3.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Parq Arauco is 8.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
Earnings per share at Parq Arauco are 177.06 CLP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
The dividend yield of Parq Arauco is 1.4% (payout 31.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
The net margin of Parq Arauco is 39.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Parq Arauco is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Parq Arauco is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
The operating margin of Parq Arauco is 70.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
Revenue at Parq Arauco is growing +20.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Parq Arauco (PARAUCO)?
Earnings per share at Parq Arauco are growing +67.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Parq Arauco (PARAUCO) carry?
The net debt of Parq Arauco is 1.5T CLP (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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