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Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co (002671) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 2.3B CNY

SL Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co 002671 · SHE
Price¥3.95
Fair Value¥1.43
Upside-63.8%
Quality65/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 3.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 26/100
Evidence: High Range ¥1.07 – ¥1.79 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 22, 2026, revised from ¥3.76 to ¥1.43 (−62.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +1.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 64% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥6.88 ¥3.07 Fair Value ¥1.43 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥3.07 – ¥6.88 · fair‑value band ¥1.07 – ¥1.79 · the ¥3.95 price screens above the ¥1.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co (002671) currently trades at ¥3.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.43, implying the stock looks roughly 63.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co generated revenue of 1.5B CNY at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 13.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.6%. Net debt stands at 69.4M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥1.07 (bear case) to ¥1.79 (bull case); at ¥3.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -64%, 002671 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥6.28 ¥10.06 ¥15.99 80
Residual Income ¥2.08 ¥2.01 ¥1.66 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.21 ¥6.33 ¥9.00 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥6.30 ¥10.38 ¥16.97 38
Owner Earnings ¥3.68 ¥5.92 ¥9.55 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥4.21 ¥6.31 ¥9.03 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.31 ¥8.52 ¥12.43 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥3.10 ¥4.09 ¥5.11 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥4.81 ¥6.99 ¥10.07 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥5.61 ¥8.55 ¥12.79 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥4.19 ¥5.42 ¥6.94 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.5700 ¥2.43 ¥3.31 54
Lynch FV ¥0.6200 ¥0.8800 ¥1.15 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥0.6200 ¥0.8800 ¥1.15 46
EPV ¥3.38 ¥3.84 ¥4.24 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.3300 ¥0.6600 ¥1.01 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.3300 ¥0.5700 ¥0.7000 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥1.07 ¥1.43 ¥1.79 63
P/S Multiple ¥1.07 ¥1.43 ¥1.79 58
P/B Multiple ¥1.07 ¥1.43 ¥1.79 55
EV/EBIT ¥4.21 ¥5.46 ¥6.70 53
EV/EBITDA ¥5.22 ¥6.81 ¥8.39 54
EV/Revenue ¥3.19 ¥4.36 ¥5.53 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.46 ¥1.96 ¥2.92 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥6.28 ¥10.06 ¥15.99 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.21 ¥6.33 ¥9.00 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.08 ¥2.01 ¥1.66 76
ROIC Compounder ¥3.56 ¥4.55 ¥5.88 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.9300 ¥1.33 ¥1.73 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (¥6.33) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.5700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.5B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.7%
Net margin 3.7%
Return on equity 3.6%
Free cash flow 277M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 45.1
More key figures
Operating margin -3.2%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.0900
EPS growth (YoY) +32.6%
Net debt 69.4M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 14
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co.,Ltd engages in the production, sale, installation, and service of prestressed concrete cylinder pipes and metal pipe fittings in China.

Full company description

Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co.,Ltd engages in the production, sale, installation, and service of prestressed concrete cylinder pipes and metal pipe fittings in China. It also offers concrete pipes, including prestressed concrete cylinder pipe with internal lining, embedded prestressed concrete cylinder pipe, armored joint prestressed steel cylinder concrete pipe, el cylinder concrete pipe, PVC-lined prestressed steel cylinder concrete pipe, prestressed steel cylinder concrete pipe, non-prestressed steel cylinder concrete pipe, concrete cylinder low-pressure drainage pipe, lined concrete cylinder low-pressure drainage pipe, embedded steel cylinder concrete low-pressure drainage pipe, reinforced concrete drainage pipes, prefabricated integrated utility tunnel, precast wind turbine concrete tower, and accessories. It also provides resin concrete pipes; metal pipes and fittings; and valve products. The company was formerly known as Shandong Longquan Pipeline Engineering Co.,LTD and changed its name to Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co.,Ltd in July 2023. Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co.,Ltd was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Changzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co reported revenue of ¥1.5B in FY2025 versus ¥1.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥47.5M in FY2025, compounding +28.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.5B CNY
Latest YoY
+27.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.8%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.0%
Revenue +1.5%/yr
FY21 ¥1.4B
FY22 ¥997M
FY23 ¥1.1B
FY24 ¥1.1B
FY25 ¥1.5B
Net income +28.1%/yr
FY21 ¥17.7M
FY22 −¥640M
FY23 ¥27.8M
FY24 ¥65.6M
FY25 ¥47.5M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2013-2024) −10.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share −0.6 pp

of which total revenue +2.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.9 pp

EBIT margin −13.4 pp
Tax rate +3.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

002671 screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002671

Peer Group

Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −64% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.18× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 45.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.54× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 3
FUTURE 69 · sector 9
PAST 14 · sector 23
HEALTH 91 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Trane Technologies plc TT $469.98 $212.34 -55%
Johnson Controls International plc JCI $142.81 $45.65 -68%
Carrier Global Corporation CARR $68.61 $17.35 -75%
Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO €76.62 €101.60 +33%
Geberit AG GEBN CHF 523.20 CHF 307.66 -41%
Lennox International Inc LII $543.93 $363.09 -33%
Kingspan Group KRX €87.30 €70.76 -19%
Masco Corporation MAS $78.04 $54.36 -30%
PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC 1,420 IDR 179.76 IDR -87%
NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB kr 36.03 kr 25.37 -30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co (002671) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.43 versus a price of ¥3.95, about −64% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002671?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co is ¥1.43 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥3.95.
What is the quality score of 002671?
Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co (002671)?
Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002671?
The net profit margin of Shandong Longquan Pipe Industry Co is about 3.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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