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Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd (002725) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 3.7B CNY (≈ $548M) · ISIN CNE100001S65

What is Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd really worth?

ZY Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd 002725 · SHE
Price¥11.45
Fair Value¥1.25
Upside−89.1%
Quality62/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 816% above our fair value of ¥1.25.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.3% net margin
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 1 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range ¥0.9400 – ¥1.56

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Share price +2.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥1.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥21.18 ¥5.95 Fair Value ¥1.25 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.95 – ¥21.18 · fair‑value band ¥0.9400 – ¥1.56 · the ¥11.45 price screens above the ¥1.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd (002725) currently trades at ¥11.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥1.25, implying the stock looks roughly 815.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥2.84 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ¥11.45 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥0.4700, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd generated revenue of 648M CNY at a net margin of 0.3%. Revenue declined 14.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 41.4M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥0.9400 (bear case) to ¥1.56 (bull case); at ¥11.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −89%, 002725 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0068 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (¥0.0600 to ¥3.82). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence ¥3.00 ¥3.76 ¥5.12 82
Growth DCF ¥3.09 ¥3.82 ¥5.03 80
Owner Earnings ¥2.43 ¥2.98 ¥3.97 78
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence ¥3.00 ¥3.76 ¥5.12 82
Owner Earnings ¥2.43 ¥2.98 ¥3.97 78
5Y Revenue Exit ¥2.18 ¥2.54 ¥3.06 74
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥2.75 ¥3.52 ¥4.55 77
5Y P/E Exit ¥2.24 ¥2.65 ¥3.15 72
10Y Revenue Exit ¥2.48 ¥2.77 ¥3.07 68
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥2.83 ¥3.37 ¥3.93 70
10Y P/E Exit ¥2.54 ¥2.84 ¥3.12 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥0.3900 ¥0.4700 ¥0.5300 67
EPV ¥1.49 ¥1.58 ¥1.66 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥0.0600 ¥0.0600 ¥0.0700 69
DDM Multi-Stage ¥0.0600 ¥0.0700 ¥0.0900 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥0.9400 ¥1.25 ¥1.56 63
P/S Multiple ¥0.7300 ¥0.9700 ¥1.21 58
P/B Multiple ¥0.7300 ¥0.9700 ¥1.21 55
EV/EBIT ¥2.05 ¥2.43 ¥2.80 66
EV/EBITDA ¥2.85 ¥3.49 ¥4.13 67
EV/Revenue ¥1.69 ¥2.01 ¥2.34 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥1.95 ¥2.61 ¥3.89 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥3.09 ¥3.82 ¥5.03 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥2.18 ¥2.59 ¥3.11 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥2.64 ¥2.44 ¥1.80 76
ROIC Compounder ¥1.49 ¥1.58 ¥1.66 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥0.6600 ¥0.9500 ¥1.23 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥2.84) versus Dividend Discount (¥0.0600). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 5.67 TTM
EPS (TTM) ¥0.0100
Dividend yield 0.0% payout 51.9%
Net margin 2.2% FY2025
Return on equity 0.2% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin −2.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 648M CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −14.0% 3y avg −4.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +149%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 57.2M CNY FY2025
Net cash 41.4M CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Zhejiang Yueling Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, design, development, manufacturing, and sale of aluminum alloy wheels in China and internationally.

Full company description

Zhejiang Yueling Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, design, development, manufacturing, and sale of aluminum alloy wheels in China and internationally. The company offers car, truck alloy, motorcycle, ATV, forged, flow forming, low pressure, steam, coating, and spinning wheels, as well as classic products, automobile parts, and motorcycle parts under the YUELING, YLW, ARTKA WHEELS, FORZUTO, DAUNTLESS, and FFP brand names. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Zhejiang Yueling Wheel Hub Making Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Zhejiang Yueling Co., Ltd. in January 2012. Zhejiang Yueling Co., Ltd. was founded in 1982 and is based in Wenling, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd reported revenue of 668M CNY in FY2025 versus 944M CNY in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was 14.6M CNY in FY2025, compounding +19.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
668M CNY
Latest YoY
−5.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (16Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+0.6% · in CNY
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+0.6%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −6.3% vs 10Y −12.6%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1.4% (2020) → 3.2% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop822% (2023) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in CNY
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) Structural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue −8.3%/yr
FY21 944M CNY
FY22 774M CNY
FY23 640M CNY
FY24 708M CNY
FY25 668M CNY
Net income +19.9%/yr
FY21 7.1M CNY
FY22 2.6M CNY
FY23 −51.0M CNY
FY24 47.2M CNY
FY25 14.6M CNY

002725 screens 816% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002725

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 641 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth −14% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.55× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.85× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 9.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 9.0× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 15
FUTURE0 · sector 21
PAST1 · sector 28
HEALTH100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND1 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY $88.50 $47.50 −46%
AutoZone, Inc AZO $2,932 $2,287 −22%
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 450,500 KRW 643,909 KRW +43%
Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 ¥57.67 ¥84.47 +46%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹165.30 ₹80.63 −51%
Magna International Inc MGA $65.57 $68.17 +4%
Genuine Parts Company GPC $137.51 $58.07 −58%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹48,700 ₹11,534 −76%
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥45.82 ¥28.28 −38%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,063 ₹393.20 −81%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd (002725) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥1.25 versus a price of ¥11.45, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002725?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd is ¥1.25 (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥11.45.
What is the quality score of 002725?
Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd (002725)?
Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 648M CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002725?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd is about 0.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Zhejiang Yueling Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).
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