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Shandong Head Group (002810) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 8.9B CNY

SH Shandong Head Group 002810 · SHE
Price¥20.24
Fair Value¥7.32
Upside-63.8%
Quality56/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 9.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.19% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Moderate moat 53/100
Evidence: High Range ¥5.11 – ¥9.15 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Share price −17.2% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 64% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥9.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥58.18 ¥9.97 Fair Value ¥7.32 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.97 – ¥58.18 · fair‑value band ¥5.11 – ¥9.15 · the ¥20.24 price screens above the ¥7.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Shandong Head Group (002810) currently trades at ¥20.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.32, implying the stock looks roughly 63.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Head Group generated revenue of 2.0B CNY at a net margin of 9.8%. Revenue grew 27.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.8%. Net debt stands at 439M CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥5.11 (bear case) to ¥9.15 (bull case); at ¥20.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -64%, 002810 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥4.57 ¥8.22 ¥14.22 80
Residual Income ¥4.99 ¥5.21 ¥5.43 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.71 ¥8.68 ¥13.91 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥4.64 ¥8.76 ¥15.85 38
Owner Earnings ¥5.27 ¥9.90 ¥17.88 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥4.71 ¥8.81 ¥14.47 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥7.21 ¥14.06 ¥22.87 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥4.73 ¥8.85 ¥13.64 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥4.47 ¥8.33 ¥14.45 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥6.27 ¥12.14 ¥21.48 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥4.66 ¥8.37 ¥13.76 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.93 ¥14.62 ¥20.18 54
Lynch FV ¥3.95 ¥5.65 ¥7.34 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.95 ¥5.65 ¥7.34 46
EPV ¥3.76 ¥4.40 ¥4.96 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.25 ¥2.49 ¥3.77 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.25 ¥2.15 ¥2.63 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥5.49 ¥7.32 ¥9.15 63
P/S Multiple ¥5.49 ¥7.32 ¥9.15 58
P/B Multiple ¥5.49 ¥7.32 ¥9.15 55
EV/EBIT ¥5.56 ¥7.52 ¥9.48 53
EV/EBITDA ¥9.14 ¥12.29 ¥15.44 54
EV/Revenue ¥4.78 ¥6.96 ¥9.15 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.14 ¥4.20 ¥6.28 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥4.57 ¥8.22 ¥14.22 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥4.71 ¥8.68 ¥13.91 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.99 ¥5.21 ¥5.43 76
ROIC Compounder ¥3.76 ¥4.40 ¥4.96 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥5.43 ¥7.76 ¥10.09 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥8.81) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.0B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +27.8%
Net margin 9.8%
Return on equity 8.8%
Free cash flow 137M CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 45.4
More key figures
Operating margin 24.4%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.5600
Dividend yield 1.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +128%
Net debt 439M CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 93
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shandong Head Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the scientific research, development, production, and sale of non-ionic cellulose ether products in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

Full company description

Shandong Head Group Co.,Ltd. engages in the scientific research, development, production, and sale of non-ionic cellulose ether products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. Its products include building material grade hydroxypropyl methyl cellulose (HPMC); pharmaceutical grade HPMC for use in coating materials, controlled release preparations, and vegetable capsules; and food grade HPMC used as emulsifier, binder, thickener, and stabilizer. The company was formerly known as Shandong Head Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to Shandong Head Group Co.,Ltd. in January 2022. Shandong Head Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Zibo, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shandong Head Group reported revenue of ¥1.9B in FY2025 versus ¥1.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥150M in FY2025, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.9B CNY
Latest YoY
−2.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+3.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (14Y)
+12.8%
Revenue +5.3%/yr
FY21 ¥1.6B
FY22 ¥1.7B
FY23 ¥1.6B
FY24 ¥2.0B
FY25 ¥1.9B
Net income −17.8%/yr
FY21 ¥330M
FY22 ¥354M
FY23 ¥220M
FY24 ¥222M
FY25 ¥150M

002810 screens 64% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Head Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002810

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −64% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.31× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 45.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 4.05× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.35× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 9.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.3× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 19
PAST 35 · sector 23
HEALTH 85 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 24 · sector 25

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Linde plc LIN $489.98 $222.03 -55%
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 181.50 TWD 255.83 TWD +41%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥70.04 ¥68.03 -3%
Novozymes A/S NSISB kr 428.20 kr 179.66 -58%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,689 ₹668.81 -75%
Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS ₹18,236 ₹2,793 -85%
Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND ₹1,560 ₹351.84 -77%
PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA 1,805 IDR 2,888 IDR +60%
Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA ₹7,115 ₹757.93 -89%
Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT ₹493.70 ₹164.29 -67%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shandong Head Group (002810) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.32 versus a price of ¥20.24, about −64% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002810?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Head Group is ¥7.32 (as of Jul 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥20.24.
What is the quality score of 002810?
Shandong Head Group has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shandong Head Group (002810)?
Shandong Head Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 002810?
The net profit margin of Shandong Head Group is about 9.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shandong Head Group pay a dividend?
Shandong Head Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.19% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 22, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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