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Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Jade Bird Fire Alarm ¥7.01, price ¥8.86, upside -20.9%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · CN · ISIN CNE100003N68

JB Some data Sep 23, 2026

Jade Bird Fire Alarm

002960 · SHE

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value ¥7.01 · Overvalued (−21%)
!Quality 37/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.41% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 5 out of 100
!Weak on past: 21 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥17.87 ¥5.97 Fair Value ¥7.01 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.97 – ¥17.87 · fair‑value band ¥4.91 – ¥9.03 · the ¥8.86 price screens above the ¥7.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Jade Bird Fire Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, researches, develops, manufactures, and sells professional fire safety electronic products and intelligent fire safety systems in China and internationally.

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Jade Bird Fire Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, researches, develops, manufactures, and sells professional fire safety electronic products and intelligent fire safety systems in China and internationally. The company offers fire safety systems, automatic fire alarm systems, small-area fire safety systems, gaseous suppression and control systems, fire door monitoring systems, electrical fire monitoring systems, civil and commercial emergency lighting and evacuation guidance systems, power supply systems for fire protection equipment, combustible gas detection and alarm systems, and wireless WAN fire safety systems. It also engages in the Internet of Things; software and IT services; asset management; business services; and technology research, development, promotion, and application services. The company was formerly known as Beida Jade Bird Universal Fire Alarm Device Co., Ltd and changed its name to Jade Bird Fire Co., Ltd. in November 2019. Jade Bird Fire Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Stock analysis

Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960) currently trades at ¥8.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.01, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥8.25 per share, and 3 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥8.86 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.55, and 14 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: ¥4.91 (bear) to ¥9.03 (bull), the price of ¥8.86 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Jade Bird Fire Alarm reported revenue of 4.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 320M CNY in FY2025, compounding −11.9%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 9.4B CNY (≈ $1.4B) · P/E ratio 29.5 · P/S ratio 2.01 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.3000 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −21%, 002960 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ¥4.91 Fair Value ¥7.01 Bull ¥9.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.1280 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings ¥3.38 ¥4.59 ¥6.82 76
Residual Income ¥4.62 ¥4.67 ¥4.42 76
EPV ¥5.28 ¥5.78 ¥6.20 74
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥3.38 ¥4.59 ¥6.82 76
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥2.06 ¥11.98 ¥16.67 63
Lynch FV ¥3.39 ¥4.84 ¥6.29 61
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.39 ¥4.84 ¥6.29 57
EPV ¥5.28 ¥5.78 ¥6.20 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.48 ¥2.95 ¥4.46 67
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.48 ¥2.55 ¥3.11 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥6.37 ¥8.49 ¥10.62 63
P/S Multiple ¥3.87 ¥5.16 ¥6.45 58
P/B Multiple ¥3.87 ¥5.16 ¥6.45 55
EV/EBIT ¥9.78 ¥12.32 ¥14.87 66
EV/EBITDA ¥9.37 ¥11.78 ¥14.19 67
EV/Revenue ¥6.00 ¥7.66 ¥9.31 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥3.04 ¥4.07 ¥6.08 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥4.62 ¥4.67 ¥4.42 76
ROIC Compounder ¥5.28 ¥5.78 ¥6.39 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥5.78 ¥8.25 ¥10.73 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 20
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.3% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

002960 screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Verisure plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 29.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.46× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.00× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 17.5× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)5 · sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)21 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)28 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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The GEO Group GEO $29.74 $12.89 −57%
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CoreCivic, Inc CXW $31.47 $18.76 −40%

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Jade Bird Fire Alarm · Fair Value
¥7.01 −26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jade Bird Fire Alarm Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002960

Frequently asked questions

Is Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.01 versus a price of ¥8.86, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002960?
Our model-based fair value for Jade Bird Fire Alarm is ¥7.01 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.86.
What is the quality score of 002960?
Jade Bird Fire Alarm has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.01 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥4.91, optimistic scenario ¥9.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jade Bird Fire Alarm stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.01, about −21% upside versus a price of ¥8.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥4.91, optimistic scenario ¥9.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
Jade Bird Fire Alarm reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Jade Bird Fire Alarm pay a dividend?
Jade Bird Fire Alarm currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jade Bird Fire Alarm it is ¥7.01 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥8.86. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jade Bird Fire Alarm stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 002960 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.86, fair value ¥7.01, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002960?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.01). For Jade Bird Fire Alarm the two are ¥1.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jade Bird Fire Alarm worth?
The market values Jade Bird Fire Alarm at about 9.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.86; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002960?
Our models span a range for Jade Bird Fire Alarm: cautious scenario ¥4.91, base ¥7.01, optimistic ¥9.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥8.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002960?
Jade Bird Fire Alarm trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 17.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jade Bird Fire Alarm (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.4%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002960 from its 52-week high?
Jade Bird Fire Alarm trades at ¥8.86, about 19% below its 52-week high of ¥10.98 and 20% above the low of ¥7.39 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jade Bird Fire Alarm?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jade Bird Fire Alarm stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥8.86, calculated fair value ¥7.01 (−21%), Quality Score 37/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002960 calculated?
We run Jade Bird Fire Alarm through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Jade Bird Fire Alarm itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥8.86. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.01, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jade Bird Fire Alarm right now?
Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥4.91 to ¥9.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960) come from?
Earnings per share at Jade Bird Fire Alarm grew +9.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.5 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Jade Bird Fire Alarm

How large is the market capitalisation of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
The market capitalisation of Jade Bird Fire Alarm is 9.4B CNY (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jade Bird Fire Alarm is 2.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
Earnings per share at Jade Bird Fire Alarm are ¥0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
The dividend yield of Jade Bird Fire Alarm is 1.4% (payout 41.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
The net margin of Jade Bird Fire Alarm is 6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jade Bird Fire Alarm is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jade Bird Fire Alarm is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
The operating margin of Jade Bird Fire Alarm is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
Revenue at Jade Bird Fire Alarm is growing −1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960)?
Earnings per share at Jade Bird Fire Alarm are growing −7.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960) generate?
The free cash flow of Jade Bird Fire Alarm is −39.4M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Jade Bird Fire Alarm (002960) hold?
Jade Bird Fire Alarm holds more cash than debt, 1.9B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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