Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research ¥13.73, price ¥16.84, upside -18.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.47 – ¥23.90 · fair‑value band ¥7.84 – ¥21.95 · the ¥16.84 price screens above the ¥13.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Guangzhou Metro Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd. provides engineering consultancy services. The company provides professional technical services, including survey and design, planning consultation, and general contracting for rail transit, municipal, construction, and other construction projects.
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Guangzhou Metro Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd. provides engineering consultancy services. The company provides professional technical services, including survey and design, planning consultation, and general contracting for rail transit, municipal, construction, and other construction projects. It also offers measurement services; standardization services; planning and design management; engineering management services; environmental protection monitoring; geological surveys; professional design services; fire protection technical services; disaster risk assessment; national land space planning; safety production; construction project quality inspection; engineering survey and design; construction engineering survey; special equipment design; and engineering design. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Stock analysis
Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013) currently trades at ¥16.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥13.73, implying the stock looks roughly 22.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥18.97 per share, and 9 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥16.84 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ¥2.61, and 16 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥7.84 (bear) to ¥21.95 (bull), the price of ¥16.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guangzhou Metro Design And Research reported revenue of 2.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was 466M CNY in FY2025, compounding +6.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 7.5B CNY (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 2.57 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.19 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 18.2% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −18%, 003013 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥7.84Fair Value ¥13.73Bull ¥21.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.6437 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 10%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 24%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Guangzhou Metro Design And Research with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 844 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−19% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangzhou Metro Design And Research Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/003013
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥13.73 versus a price of ¥16.84, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 003013?
Our model-based fair value for Guangzhou Metro Design And Research is ¥13.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥16.84.
What is the quality score of 003013?
Guangzhou Metro Design And Research has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥13.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.84, optimistic scenario ¥21.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangzhou Metro Design And Research stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥13.73, about −18% upside versus a price of ¥16.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.84, optimistic scenario ¥21.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
Guangzhou Metro Design And Research reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Guangzhou Metro Design And Research pay a dividend?
Guangzhou Metro Design And Research currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guangzhou Metro Design And Research would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 003013 use?
Our models discount Guangzhou Metro Design And Research at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guangzhou Metro Design And Research that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guangzhou Metro Design And Research grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.12 %: that much free cash flow Guangzhou Metro Design And Research produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangzhou Metro Design And Research it is ¥13.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥16.84. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangzhou Metro Design And Research stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 003013 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥16.84, fair value ¥13.73, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 003013?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥16.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥13.73). For Guangzhou Metro Design And Research the two are ¥3.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangzhou Metro Design And Research worth?
The market values Guangzhou Metro Design And Research at about 7.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥16.84; our models calculate a fair value of ¥13.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 003013?
Our models span a range for Guangzhou Metro Design And Research: cautious scenario ¥7.84, base ¥13.73, optimistic ¥21.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥16.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 003013?
Guangzhou Metro Design And Research trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥13.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 003013 from its 52-week high?
Guangzhou Metro Design And Research trades at ¥16.84, about 14% below its 52-week high of ¥19.62 and 31% above the low of ¥12.87 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥13.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangzhou Metro Design And Research?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangzhou Metro Design And Research stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥16.84, calculated fair value ¥13.73 (−18%), Quality Score 53/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 003013 calculated?
We run Guangzhou Metro Design And Research through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥13.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangzhou Metro Design And Research itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was ¥16.84. Our model-based fair value is ¥13.73, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangzhou Metro Design And Research right now?
The model range is unusually wide (¥7.84 to ¥21.95). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
The market capitalisation of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research is 7.5B CNY (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research is 2.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Metro Design And Research are ¥1.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
The dividend yield of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research is 1.8% (payout 26.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
The net margin of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research is 18.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
The operating margin of Guangzhou Metro Design And Research is 19.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
Revenue at Guangzhou Metro Design And Research is growing −2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013)?
Earnings per share at Guangzhou Metro Design And Research are growing +33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guangzhou Metro Design And Research (003013) hold?
Guangzhou Metro Design And Research holds more cash than debt, 565M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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