Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd KRW 27,900, price KRW 9,300, upside +200.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7,409 KRW – 12,010 KRW · fair‑value band 20,594 KRW – 38,824 KRW · the 9,300 KRW price screens below the 27,900 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Changhae Ethanol Co., Ltd. produces and sells spirits from sugar cane, tapioca, rice, and barley crops in South Korea. The company offers fermented ethyl alcohol and refined alcohol.
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Changhae Ethanol Co., Ltd. produces and sells spirits from sugar cane, tapioca, rice, and barley crops in South Korea. The company offers fermented ethyl alcohol and refined alcohol. It also provides DDGS, a raw material for manufacturing high quality feed; CO2, a carbon dioxide gas generated during fermentation process; and CDS, a raw material for liquid feed and fertilizer. In addition, the company provides raw material for bio-microbe control field and biochemical field. Further, it engages in the construction equipment rental business. Changhae Ethanol Co., Ltd. was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Jeonju-si, South Korea.
Stock analysis
Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650) currently trades at 9,300 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 27,900 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 29,725 KRW per share, and 22 of the 22 models we run sit above the 9,300 KRW price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12,575 KRW, and 0 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 20,594 KRW (bear) to 38,824 KRW (bull), the price of 9,300 KRW sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd reported revenue of 122B KRW in FY2025 versus 97.0B KRW in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was 13.3B KRW in FY2025, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 70.6B KRW (≈ $49.4M) · P/S ratio 0.58 · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin 10.8% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% · Operating margin 15.1% · Revenue (TTM) 121B KRW.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 200%, 004650 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 20,594 KRWFair Value 27,900 KRWBull 38,824 KRW
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in KRW (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in KRW: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0% vs 24%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 13%
2025 sits 111% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.4%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Korea: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.1% a year for the price.
Compare Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
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Is Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 27,900 KRW versus a price of 9,300 KRW, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 004650?
Our model-based fair value for Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is 27,900 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9,300 KRW.
What is the quality score of 004650?
Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 27,900 KRW (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 20,594 KRW, optimistic scenario 38,824 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 27,900 KRW, about +200% upside versus a price of 9,300 KRW (undervalued). Cautious scenario 20,594 KRW, optimistic scenario 38,824 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 121B KRW (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -11.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 004650 use?
Our models discount Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for South Korea. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd that is -11.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd grew +1.3 % a year. The price currently implies -11.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (-11.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.64 %: that much free cash flow Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd it is 27,900 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 9,300 KRW. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 004650 trades below its calculated fair value: price 9,300 KRW, fair value 27,900 KRW, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 004650?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9,300 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (27,900 KRW). For Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd the two are 18,600 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd at about 70.6B KRW (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 9,300 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 27,900 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 004650?
Our models span a range for Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd: cautious scenario 20,594 KRW, base 27,900 KRW, optimistic 38,824 KRW per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 9,300 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
Balance-sheet figures for Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 004650 from its 52-week high?
Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd trades at 9,300 KRW, about 23% below its 52-week high of 12,010 KRW and 5% above the low of 8,870 KRW (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 27,900 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Luzhou Laojiao Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 9,300 KRW, calculated fair value 27,900 KRW (+200%), Quality Score 63/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 004650 calculated?
We run Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 27,900 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 9,300 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 27,900 KRW, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (20,594 KRW). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (20,594 KRW to 38,824 KRW) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
The market capitalisation of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is 70.6B KRW (≈ $49.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is 0.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
The dividend yield of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is 6.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
The net margin of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is 10.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
The operating margin of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
Revenue at Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is growing −5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650)?
Earnings per share at Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd are growing −2.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd (004650) carry?
The net debt of Changhae Ethanol Co. Ltd is 26.4B KRW (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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