Changhae Ethanol Co (004650) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · KR · Market cap 70.4B KRW
Fair value as of: Jul 22, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +0.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 105% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (14,512 KRW). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7,409 KRW – 12,010 KRW · fair‑value band 14,512 KRW – 24,531 KRW · the 9,430 KRW price screens below the 19,350 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 22, 2026.
Analysis
Changhae Ethanol Co (004650) currently trades at 9,430 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 19,350 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 105.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Changhae Ethanol Co generated revenue of 121B KRW at a net margin of 10.9%. Revenue declined 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at 26.4B KRW. Fundamentals as of Jul 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 14,512 KRW (bear case) to 24,531 KRW (bull case); at 9,430 KRW, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 105%, 004650 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (21,675 KRW) versus Asset-Based (12,575 KRW). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Changhae Ethanol Co., Ltd. produces and sells spirits from sugar cane, tapioca, rice, and barley crops in South Korea. The company offers fermented ethyl alcohol and refined alcohol.
Full company description
Changhae Ethanol Co., Ltd. produces and sells spirits from sugar cane, tapioca, rice, and barley crops in South Korea. The company offers fermented ethyl alcohol and refined alcohol. It also provides DDGS, a raw material for manufacturing high quality feed; CO2, a carbon dioxide gas generated during fermentation process; and CDS, a raw material for liquid feed and fertilizer. In addition, the company provides raw material for bio-microbe control field and biochemical field. Further, it engages in the construction equipment rental business. Changhae Ethanol Co., Ltd. was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Jeonju-si, South Korea.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Changhae Ethanol Co reported revenue of 122B KRW in FY2025 versus 97.0B KRW in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was 13.3B KRW in FY2025, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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