Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Harbour Centre Development Ltd HK$7.86, price HK$4.58, upside +71.6%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Harbour Centre Development Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$3.84 – HK$8.41 · fair‑value band HK$5.45 – HK$10.41 · the HK$4.58 price screens below the HK$7.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Harbour Centre Development in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Harbour Centre Development is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Harbour Centre Development Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the hotel ownership, and property investment and development activities in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and internationally. The company operates through Hotels; Investment properties; Development properties; Investments; and Others segments.
Show more
Harbour Centre Development Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the hotel ownership, and property investment and development activities in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and internationally. The company operates through Hotels; Investment properties; Development properties; Investments; and Others segments. It engages in the acquisition, development, and sale of trading properties, as well as invests in and leases properties. The company operates The Murray hotel, Marco Polo Hongkong Hotel, Marco Polo Changzhou hotel, and Niccolo Suzhou. In addition, it provides finance and bank deposit services; and engages in the equity investment in global capital markets. The company is based in Kowloon, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051) currently trades at HK$4.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.86, implying the stock looks roughly 41.7% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$14.16 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$4.58 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at HK$5.97, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$5.45 (bear) to HK$10.41 (bull), the price of HK$4.58 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Harbour Centre Development Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.3B in FY2025 versus HK$4.5B in FY2021, a compound −26.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$234M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$3.2B (≈ $414M) · P/S ratio 2.22 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −17.4% · Return on equity −1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin 24.8% · Revenue (TTM) HK$1.4B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 72%, 0051 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$5.45Fair Value HK$7.86Bull HK$10.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.1% (2021) → 17.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.3% a year for the price.
Compare Harbour Centre Development Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+72% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harbour Centre Development Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0051
Frequently asked questions
Is Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.86 versus a price of HK$4.58, about +72% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0051?
Our model-based fair value for Harbour Centre Development Ltd is HK$7.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$4.58.
What is the quality score of 0051?
Harbour Centre Development Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.86 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$5.45, optimistic scenario HK$10.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harbour Centre Development Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$7.86, about +72% upside versus a price of HK$4.58 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$5.45, optimistic scenario HK$10.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
Harbour Centre Development Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Harbour Centre Development Ltd pay a dividend?
Harbour Centre Development Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Harbour Centre Development Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -16.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0051 use?
Our models discount Harbour Centre Development Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Harbour Centre Development Ltd that is -4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Harbour Centre Development Ltd grew -16.5 % a year. The price currently implies -4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Harbour Centre Development Ltd (-4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.04 %: that much free cash flow Harbour Centre Development Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harbour Centre Development Ltd it is HK$7.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$4.58. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Harbour Centre Development Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0051 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$4.58, fair value HK$7.86, a gap of about +72% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0051?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$4.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$7.86). For Harbour Centre Development Ltd the two are HK$3.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harbour Centre Development Ltd worth?
The market values Harbour Centre Development Ltd at about HK$3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$4.58; our models calculate a fair value of HK$7.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0051?
Our models span a range for Harbour Centre Development Ltd: cautious scenario HK$5.45, base HK$7.86, optimistic HK$10.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$4.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harbour Centre Development Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −1.0%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0051 from its 52-week high?
Harbour Centre Development Ltd trades at HK$4.58, about 10% below its 52-week high of HK$5.09 and 10% above the low of HK$4.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$7.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harbour Centre Development Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harbour Centre Development Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$4.58, calculated fair value HK$7.86 (+72%), Quality Score 61/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0051 calculated?
We run Harbour Centre Development Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$7.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Harbour Centre Development Ltd currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$4.58. Our model-based fair value is HK$7.86, about +72% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harbour Centre Development Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$5.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$5.45 to HK$10.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Harbour Centre Development Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
The market capitalisation of Harbour Centre Development Ltd is HK$3.2B (≈ $414M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Harbour Centre Development Ltd is 2.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
The dividend yield of Harbour Centre Development Ltd is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
The net margin of Harbour Centre Development Ltd is −17.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harbour Centre Development Ltd is −1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harbour Centre Development Ltd is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
The operating margin of Harbour Centre Development Ltd is 24.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
Revenue at Harbour Centre Development Ltd is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051)?
Earnings per share at Harbour Centre Development Ltd are growing −50.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Harbour Centre Development Ltd (0051) hold?
Harbour Centre Development Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$404M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Harbour Centre Development Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Harbour Centre Development Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
