Guoco Group (0053) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$22.0B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price +4.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$33.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$46.67 – HK$105.37 · fair‑value band HK$19.90 – HK$33.16 · the HK$71.10 price screens above the HK$26.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
Guoco Group (0053) currently trades at HK$71.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$26.53, implying the stock looks roughly 62.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guoco Group generated revenue of HK$3.0B at a net margin of 18.2%. Revenue declined 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at HK$2.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$19.90 (bear case) to HK$33.16 (bull case); at HK$71.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -63%, 0053 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$326.75) versus Earnings-Based (HK$15.85). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guoco Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the principal investment, property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, and financial service businesses.
Full company description
Guoco Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the principal investment, property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, and financial service businesses. The company offers debt, equity, and direct investments; treasury operations; and investment advisory and management services with trading and strategic investments in global capital markets. It also develops residential and commercial properties; holds properties for rental; owns, leases, or manages hotels under the Clermont and Thistle brands; operates gaming and leisure businesses; and holds casino and other gaming licences, and concession. In addition, the company provides commercial, consumer, Islamic, and investment banking services; and life and general insurance, Takaful insurance, fund management and unit trust, corporate advisory, and stock broking services. Further, it offers royalty entitlement of Bass Strait's oil and gas production; manufactures, markets, and distributes health products; operates car parks and oil palm estate; owns hotel assets; develops and maintains online gaming software; distributes limited risks; processes credit transfers; provides general management, property management and maintenance, marketing, consultancy, and training services, as well as support services for interactive gaming; and engages in investment trading, social club, apiculture, and financing and securities investment activities. It operates in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Singapore, Australasia, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Guoco Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Guoline Overseas Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guoco Group reported revenue of HK$3.1B in FY2025 versus HK$1.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$513M in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0053 screens 63% overvalued. Compare with CITIC Limited →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$11.28 | HK$22.56 | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 580,000 KRW | 497,919 KRW | -14% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,810 IDR | 9,620 IDR | +100% |
| The Siam Cement Public Company SCC | 254.00 THB | 199.40 THB | -21% |
| SRF Limited SRF | ₹2,875 | ₹1,053 | -63% |
| Empresas Copec S.A COPEC | 6,330 CLP | 10,879 CLP | +72% |
| Posco International Corporation 047050 | 50,900 KRW | 61,248 KRW | +20% |
| Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA | ₹2,940 | ₹559.30 | -81% |
| Doosan Corporation 000155 | 464,000 KRW | 75,620 KRW | -84% |
| Thermax Limited THERMAX | ₹4,809 | ₹1,087 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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