Guoco Group Ltd (0053) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Guoco Group Ltd HK$43.97, price HK$71.80, upside -38.8%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$46.67 – HK$105.37 · fair‑value band HK$24.58 – HK$59.93 · the HK$71.80 price screens above the HK$43.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Guoco Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the principal investment, property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, and financial service businesses.
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Guoco Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the principal investment, property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, and financial service businesses. The company offers debt, equity, and direct investments; treasury operations; and investment advisory and management services with trading and strategic investments in global capital markets. It also develops residential and commercial properties; holds properties for rental; owns, leases, or manages hotels under the Clermont and Thistle brands; operates gaming and leisure businesses; and holds casino and other gaming licences, and concession. In addition, the company provides commercial, consumer, Islamic, and investment banking services; and life and general insurance, Takaful insurance, fund management and unit trust, corporate advisory, and stock broking services. Further, it offers royalty entitlement of Bass Strait's oil and gas production; manufactures, markets, and distributes health products; operates car parks and oil palm estate; owns hotel assets; develops and maintains online gaming software; distributes limited risks; processes credit transfers; provides general management, property management and maintenance, marketing, consultancy, and training services, as well as support services for interactive gaming; and engages in investment trading, social club, apiculture, and financing and securities investment activities. It operates in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Singapore, Australasia, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Guoco Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Guoline Overseas Limited.
Stock analysis
Guoco Group Ltd (0053) currently trades at HK$71.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$43.97, implying the stock looks roughly 63.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$313.71 per share, and 4 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$71.80 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$15.85, and 8 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$24.58 (bear) to HK$59.93 (bull), the price of HK$71.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Guoco Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$3.1B in FY2025 versus HK$1.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$513M in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$23.4B (≈ $3.0B) · P/E ratio 5.1 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) HK$4.28 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 16.5% · Return on equity 5.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at −39%, 0053 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$24.58Fair Value HK$43.97Bull HK$59.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.6800 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs −2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 377 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−39% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)5.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.34× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.00× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.17× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)20· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guoco Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0053
Frequently asked questions
Is Guoco Group Ltd (0053) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$43.97 versus a price of HK$71.80, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0053?
Our model-based fair value for Guoco Group Ltd is HK$43.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$71.80.
What is the quality score of 0053?
Guoco Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$43.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$24.58, optimistic scenario HK$59.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guoco Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$43.97, about −39% upside versus a price of HK$71.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$24.58, optimistic scenario HK$59.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
Guoco Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Guoco Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Guoco Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guoco Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -11.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0053 use?
Our models discount Guoco Group Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guoco Group Ltd that is -11.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guoco Group Ltd (0053) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guoco Group Ltd grew +10.5 % a year. The price currently implies -11.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guoco Group Ltd (0053) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guoco Group Ltd (-11.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.15 %: that much free cash flow Guoco Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guoco Group Ltd it is HK$43.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$71.80. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guoco Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0053 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$71.80, fair value HK$43.97, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0053?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$71.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$43.97). For Guoco Group Ltd the two are HK$27.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guoco Group Ltd worth?
The market values Guoco Group Ltd at about HK$23.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$71.80; our models calculate a fair value of HK$43.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0053?
Our models span a range for Guoco Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$24.58, base HK$43.97, optimistic HK$59.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$71.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0053?
Guoco Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$43.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 0.3, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 7.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 0053?
The PEG ratio of Guoco Group Ltd is 1.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guoco Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.1%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0053 from its 52-week high?
Guoco Group Ltd trades at HK$71.80, about 6% below its 52-week high of HK$76.14 and 8% above the low of HK$66.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$43.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guoco Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guoco Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$71.80, calculated fair value HK$43.97 (−39%), Quality Score 65/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0053 calculated?
We run Guoco Group Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$43.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Guoco Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$71.80. Our model-based fair value is HK$43.97, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guoco Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$59.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (HK$24.58 to HK$59.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Guoco Group Ltd (0053) come from?
Earnings per share at Guoco Group Ltd grew −2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin −5.1 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guoco Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
The market capitalisation of Guoco Group Ltd is HK$23.4B (≈ $3.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guoco Group Ltd is 0.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
Earnings per share at Guoco Group Ltd are HK$4.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
The dividend yield of Guoco Group Ltd is 5.0% (payout 84.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
The net margin of Guoco Group Ltd is 16.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guoco Group Ltd is 5.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guoco Group Ltd is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
The operating margin of Guoco Group Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
Revenue at Guoco Group Ltd is growing −7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guoco Group Ltd (0053)?
Earnings per share at Guoco Group Ltd are growing +12.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guoco Group Ltd (0053) carry?
The net debt of Guoco Group Ltd is HK$2.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026