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Han Chang Pape (009460) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Han Chang Pape KRW 4,681, price KRW 2,770, upside +69.0%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · KR · ISIN KR7009460007

HC Thin data Oct 4, 2026

Han Chang Pape

009460 · KO

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

Fair value 4,681 KRW · Strongly undervalued (+69.0%)
Low debt
Ranks above peers (5/8)
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.3 %/yr in KRW)
Thin margins · 4.8% net margin (TTM)
Quality 33/100
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 33/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

14,569 KRW 1,828 KRW Fair Value 4,681 KRW Apr 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1,828 KRW – 14,569 KRW · fair‑value band 3,493 KRW – 6,986 KRW · the 2,770 KRW price screens below the 4,681 KRW fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Hanchangpaper co., Ltd engages in the manufacture and distribution of paper board products worldwide. The company offers industrial paper board; and specialty paper boards, including colored, extra-processing, rough gloss, and other paper boards. It also provides compostable paper cups and food containers.

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Hanchangpaper co., Ltd engages in the manufacture and distribution of paper board products worldwide. The company offers industrial paper board; and specialty paper boards, including colored, extra-processing, rough gloss, and other paper boards. It also provides compostable paper cups and food containers. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Yangsan-si, South Korea.

Stock analysis

Han Chang Pape (009460) currently trades at 2,770 KRW, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4,681 KRW, implying the stock looks roughly 40.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: 3,493 KRW (bear) to 6,986 KRW (bull), the price of 2,770 KRW sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Han Chang Pape reported revenue of 267B KRW in FY2025 versus 182B KRW in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was −13.1B KRW in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 33.1B KRW (≈ $24.6M) · P/S ratio 0.16 · Net margin −4.9% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin 6.1% · Revenue (TTM) 200B KRW · Revenue growth (YoY) −5.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at 69%, 009460 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 3,493 KRW Fair Value 4,681 KRW Bull 6,986 KRW
Price 2,770 KRW · Upside +69.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA 2,731 KRW 3,812 KRW 4,893 KRW 67
NCAV (Graham) 3,536 KRW 4,739 KRW 7,073 KRW 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA 2,731 KRW 3,812 KRW 4,893 KRW 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3,536 KRW 4,739 KRW 7,073 KRW 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.1% (2020) → −1.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 118 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +69.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4.8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −5.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.33× · Above median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)53 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)84 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 37

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €24.85 €15.50 −38%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥13.54 ¥16.93 +25%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$5.88 HK$14.06 +139%
The Navigator Company NVG €3.21 €2.08 −35%
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 8,225 IDR 12,607 IDR +53%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 975.00 CLP 1,371 CLP +41%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥17.74 ¥18.80 +6%
Billerud AB BILL kr 81.05 kr 49.11 −39%
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €19.90 €23.55 +18%
Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited 2314 HK$3.40 HK$2.64 −22%

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Han Chang Pape · Fair Value
4,681 KRW +41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Han Chang Pape Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/009460

Frequently asked questions

Is Han Chang Pape (009460) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4,681 KRW versus a price of 2,770 KRW, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 009460?
Our model-based fair value for Han Chang Pape is 4,681 KRW (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,770 KRW.
What is the quality score of 009460?
Han Chang Pape has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Han Chang Pape (009460)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4,681 KRW (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3,493 KRW, optimistic scenario 6,986 KRW. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Han Chang Pape stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4,681 KRW, about +69% upside versus a price of 2,770 KRW (undervalued). Cautious scenario 3,493 KRW, optimistic scenario 6,986 KRW. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
Han Chang Pape reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 200B KRW (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Han Chang Pape it is 4,681 KRW per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of 2,770 KRW. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Han Chang Pape stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 009460 trades below its calculated fair value: price 2,770 KRW, fair value 4,681 KRW, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 009460?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,770 KRW); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4,681 KRW). For Han Chang Pape the two are 1,911 KRW per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Han Chang Pape worth?
The market values Han Chang Pape at about 33.1B KRW (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is 2,770 KRW; our models calculate a fair value of 4,681 KRW per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 009460?
Our models span a range for Han Chang Pape: cautious scenario 3,493 KRW, base 4,681 KRW, optimistic 6,986 KRW per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price 2,770 KRW). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
Balance-sheet figures for Han Chang Pape (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 13.4%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 009460 from its 52-week high?
Han Chang Pape trades at 2,770 KRW, about 21% below its 52-week high of 3,490 KRW and 52% above the low of 1,828 KRW (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4,681 KRW is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Han Chang Pape?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Han Chang Pape stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price 2,770 KRW, calculated fair value 4,681 KRW (+69%), Quality Score 33/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 009460 calculated?
We run Han Chang Pape through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4,681 KRW, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Han Chang Pape currently trades 41 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 2,770 KRW. Our model-based fair value is 4,681 KRW, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Han Chang Pape right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (3,493 KRW). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (3,493 KRW to 6,986 KRW) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Han Chang Pape

How large is the market capitalisation of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
The market capitalisation of Han Chang Pape is 33.1B KRW (≈ $24.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Han Chang Pape is 0.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
The net margin of Han Chang Pape is −4.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Han Chang Pape is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Han Chang Pape is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Han Chang Pape (009460)?
The operating margin of Han Chang Pape is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Han Chang Pape (009460)?
Revenue at Han Chang Pape is growing −5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Han Chang Pape (009460)?
Earnings per share at Han Chang Pape are growing −44.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Han Chang Pape (009460) generate?
The free cash flow of Han Chang Pape is −2.3B KRW (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Han Chang Pape (009460) carry?
The net debt of Han Chang Pape is 128B KRW (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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