EN DE

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (SEM) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · PT · Market cap €1.8B

SS Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM · LS
Price€22.40
Fair Value€27.50
Upside+22.8%
Quality53/100
Watch Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 30.9% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
2.70% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (8/12)
Moderate moat 45/100
Evidence: Medium Range €18.84 – €37.86 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +1.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 23% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (€18.84 to €37.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€23.76 €7.62 Fair Value €27.50 Apr 2021 Jun 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €7.62 – €23.76 · fair‑value band €18.84 – €37.86 · the €22.40 price screens below the €27.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (SEM) currently trades at €22.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €27.50, implying the stock looks roughly 22.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A generated revenue of €2.0B at a net margin of 30.9%. Revenue declined 34.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at €1.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €18.84 (bear case) to €37.86 (bull case); at €22.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 23%, SEM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €20.85 €29.09 €40.59 80
Residual Income €17.53 €18.68 €20.62 76
Rev-Margin DCF €14.16 €23.75 €35.03 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €20.14 €28.90 €41.93 38
Owner Earnings €4.58 €8.81 €15.10 31
5Y Revenue Exit €14.16 €23.13 €35.12 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €22.58 €37.62 €55.96 41
5Y P/E Exit €15.29 €25.08 €35.79 38
10Y Revenue Exit €16.02 €23.84 €32.69 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €21.26 €32.63 €45.69 37
10Y P/E Exit €17.15 €25.02 €33.11 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €13.33 €25.00 €31.06 54
EPV €0.6500 €1.71 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €25.00 €33.33 €41.66 63
P/S Multiple €25.00 €33.33 €41.66 58
P/B Multiple €25.00 €33.33 €41.66 55
EV/EBIT €14.53 €22.69 €30.84 53
EV/EBITDA €29.71 €42.92 €56.13 54
EV/Revenue €11.27 €20.35 €29.44 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €10.90 €14.60 €21.79 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €20.85 €29.09 €40.59 80
Rev-Margin DCF €14.16 €23.75 €35.03 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €17.53 €18.68 €20.62 76
ROIC Compounder €0.6500 €1.71 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €18.01 €25.73 €33.44 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (€33.33) versus Earnings-Based (€0.6500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €2.0B
Revenue growth (YoY) -34.4%
Net margin 30.9%
Return on equity 5.6%
Free cash flow €282M FY2025
P/E ratio 48.9
More key figures
Operating margin 4.6%
EPS (TTM) €0.4600
Dividend yield 2.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +1,196%
Net debt €1.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments.

Full company description

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments. The company produces and sells writing and printing thin paper, tissue paper, and moulded fibre packaging; researches, develops, produces, and sells forestry and agricultural products; and produces and sells bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP), cork, and pine wood products, as well as electric and thermal energy. It is also involved in the production and sale of cement, ready-mixed concrete, aggregates, mortars, precast concrete, and hydraulic lime. In addition, the company engages in the production of aluminium e-bike frames; and the provision of services related to the recovery of animal by-products and food products containing animal-origin substances to produce fertilizers, animal feed, and biodiesel. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was €157M in FY2025, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€2.1B
Latest YoY
−1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−12.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+2.5%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
−14.1%
Revenue −0.2%/yr
FY21 €2.1B
FY22 €3.1B
FY23 €2.7B
FY24 €2.1B
FY25 €2.1B
Net income −5.7%/yr
FY21 €198M
FY22 €307M
FY23 €245M
FY24 €233M
FY25 €157M

Watch SEM: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SEM

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 113 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +23% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Revenue growth -34% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.55× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 48.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 7.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.03× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 64 · sector 20
FUTURE 0 · sector 7
PAST 23 · sector 12
HEALTH 73 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 54 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Klabin S.A KLBN11 R$17.58 R$3.89 -78%
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €23.45 €15.47 -34%
Suzano S.A SUZB3 R$41.70 R$138.01 +231%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB kr 103.00 kr 49.40 -52%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥14.13 ¥17.29 +22%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 305.40 kr 217.72 -29%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$7.55 HK$8.73 +16%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,078 CLP 1,269 CLP +18%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥22.05 ¥24.32 +10%
Billerud AB BILL kr 68.70 kr 48.60 -29%

Compare Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (SEM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €27.50 versus a price of €22.40, about +23% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SEM?
Our model-based fair value for Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is €27.50 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €22.40.
What is the quality score of SEM?
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A (SEM)?
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.0B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SEM?
The net profit margin of Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A is about 30.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A pay a dividend?
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.70% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.