Semapa (SEM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Semapa €29.15, price €20.75, upside +40.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.62 – €23.76 · fair‑value band €20.37 – €38.92 · the €20.75 price screens below the €29.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments.
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Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of pulp, printing and writing papers, and tissues in Portugal, the rest of Europe, the United States, Africa, Asia, and Oceania. It operates through Pulp and Paper, Cement, and Other Businesses segments. The company produces and sells writing and printing thin paper, tissue paper, and moulded fibre packaging; researches, develops, produces, and sells forestry and agricultural products; and produces and sells bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP), cork, and pine wood products, as well as electric and thermal energy. It is also involved in the production and sale of cement, ready-mixed concrete, aggregates, mortars, precast concrete, and hydraulic lime. In addition, the company engages in the production of aluminium e-bike frames; and the provision of services related to the recovery of animal by-products and food products containing animal-origin substances to produce fertilizers, animal feed, and biodiesel. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Lisbon, Portugal.
Stock analysis
Semapa (SEM) currently trades at €20.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €29.15, implying the stock looks roughly 28.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €33.33 per share, and 16 of the 22 models we run sit above the €20.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €14.60, and 6 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €20.37 (bear) to €38.92 (bull), the price of €20.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Semapa reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was €157M in FY2025, compounding −5.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.8B · P/E ratio 45.1 · P/S ratio 3.34 · EPS (TTM) €0.4600 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 40%, SEM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €20.37Fair Value €29.15Bull €38.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.6% a year for the price and +10.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 121 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+41% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−34% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Semapa Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SEM
Frequently asked questions
Is Semapa (SEM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €29.15 versus a price of €20.75, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SEM?
Our model-based fair value for Semapa is €29.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €20.75.
What is the quality score of SEM?
Semapa has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Semapa (SEM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €29.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario €20.37, optimistic scenario €38.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Semapa stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €29.15, about +40% upside versus a price of €20.75 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €20.37, optimistic scenario €38.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Semapa (SEM)?
Semapa reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Semapa pay a dividend?
Semapa currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Semapa (SEM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Semapa would have to grow free cash flow by -3.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SEM use?
Our models discount Semapa at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for Portugal. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Semapa that is -3.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Semapa (SEM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Semapa grew +2.5 % a year. The price currently implies -3.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Semapa (SEM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Semapa (-3.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Semapa (SEM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.99 %: that much free cash flow Semapa produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Semapa (SEM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Semapa it is €29.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €20.75. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Semapa stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SEM trades below its calculated fair value: price €20.75, fair value €29.15, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SEM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€20.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€29.15). For Semapa the two are €8.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Semapa worth?
The market values Semapa at about €1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €20.75; our models calculate a fair value of €29.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SEM?
Our models span a range for Semapa: cautious scenario €20.37, base €29.15, optimistic €38.92 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €20.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SEM?
Semapa trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €29.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.0.
What is the PEG ratio of SEM?
The PEG ratio of Semapa is 0.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Semapa (SEM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Semapa (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SEM from its 52-week high?
Semapa trades at €20.75, about 13% below its 52-week high of €23.76 and 31% above the low of €15.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €29.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Semapa?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Semapa stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €20.75, calculated fair value €29.15 (+40%), Quality Score 53/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SEM calculated?
We run Semapa through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €29.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Semapa currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Semapa (SEM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €20.75. Our model-based fair value is €29.15, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Semapa right now?
Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€20.37 to €38.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Semapa
How large is the market capitalisation of Semapa (SEM)?
The market capitalisation of Semapa is €1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Semapa (SEM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Semapa is 3.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Semapa (SEM)?
Earnings per share at Semapa are €0.4600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Semapa (SEM)?
The dividend yield of Semapa is 3.0% (payout 136%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Semapa (SEM)?
The net margin of Semapa is 7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Semapa (SEM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Semapa is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Semapa (SEM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Semapa is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Semapa (SEM)?
The operating margin of Semapa is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Semapa (SEM)?
Revenue at Semapa is growing −34.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Semapa (SEM)?
Earnings per share at Semapa are growing +12.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Semapa (SEM) carry?
The net debt of Semapa is €1.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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