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Shougang Century Holdings (0103) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$1.0B

SC Shougang Century Holdings 0103 · HK
PriceHK$1.75
Fair ValueHK$1.51
Upside-13.5%
Quality40/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 2.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.80% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 19/100
Evidence: High Range HK$1.13 – HK$1.89 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price −4.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 14% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from HK$1.13 (bear) to HK$1.89 (bull), base HK$1.51. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 40/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$4.10 HK$0.6970 Fair Value HK$1.51 Mar 2020 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.6970 – HK$4.10 · fair‑value band HK$1.13 – HK$1.89 · the HK$1.75 price screens above the HK$1.51 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Shougang Century Holdings (0103) currently trades at HK$1.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.51, implying the stock looks roughly 13.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shougang Century Holdings generated revenue of HK$2.4B at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue grew 11.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.9%. Net debt stands at HK$105M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.13 (bear case) to HK$1.89 (bull case); at HK$1.75, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -14%, 0103 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$1.45 HK$1.54 HK$1.66 80
Residual Income HK$2.56 HK$2.47 HK$1.94 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.52 HK$1.57 HK$1.61 72
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$1.44 HK$1.55 HK$1.69 38
Owner Earnings HK$1.75 HK$1.98 HK$2.27 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.53 HK$1.75 HK$2.03 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.06 HK$2.71 HK$3.46 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.97 HK$2.55 HK$3.14 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.48 HK$1.66 HK$1.89 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$1.80 HK$2.26 HK$2.86 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.74 HK$2.16 HK$2.64 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.7100 HK$1.91 HK$2.50 54
Lynch FV HK$0.3700 HK$0.5300 HK$0.6900 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.3700 HK$0.5300 HK$0.6900 46
EPV HK$1.52 HK$1.57 HK$1.61 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.6800 HK$1.23 HK$1.70 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.6800 HK$1.00 HK$1.30 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.33 HK$1.78 HK$2.22 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.33 HK$1.78 HK$2.22 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.33 HK$1.78 HK$2.22 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.69 HK$1.87 HK$2.05 53
EV/EBITDA HK$2.67 HK$3.18 HK$3.68 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.62 HK$1.82 HK$2.02 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.87 HK$2.50 HK$3.73 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.45 HK$1.54 HK$1.66 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.56 HK$2.47 HK$1.94 76
ROIC Compounder HK$1.52 HK$1.57 HK$1.61 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$1.07 HK$1.53 HK$1.99 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$2.50) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.5300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$2.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.3%
Net margin 2.2%
Return on equity 2.9%
Free cash flow HK$15.9M FY2025
P/E ratio 18.0
More key figures
Operating margin 1.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0600
Dividend yield 3.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -42.4%
Net debt HK$105M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 59
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 30
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shougang Century Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of steel cords for radial tyres in the People's Republic of China. The company also manufactures and sells radial tyres, sawing, and hose wires under the Eastern brand name. In addition, it invests in properties and provides nominee and management services.

Full company description

Shougang Century Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture and sale of steel cords for radial tyres in the People's Republic of China. The company also manufactures and sells radial tyres, sawing, and hose wires under the Eastern brand name. In addition, it invests in properties and provides nominee and management services. The company exports its products to Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, South America, and rest of Asia. The company was formerly known as Shougang Concord Century Holdings Limited and changed its name to Shougang Century Holdings Limited in December 2021. Shougang Century Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Chai Wan, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shougang Century Holdings reported revenue of HK$2.4B in FY2025 versus HK$2.7B in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was HK$54.2M in FY2025, compounding −9.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 45/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$2.4B
Latest YoY
+1.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.5%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.3%
Revenue −2.6%/yr
FY21 HK$2.7B
FY22 HK$2.5B
FY23 HK$2.5B
FY24 HK$2.4B
FY25 HK$2.4B
Net income −9.5%/yr
FY21 HK$80.9M
FY22 HK$47.9M
FY23 HK$62.5M
FY24 HK$31.6M
FY25 HK$54.2M

0103 screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →

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Shougang Century Holdings · Fair Value
HK$1.51 −14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shougang Century Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0103

Peer Group

Steel · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −14% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.53× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 8.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 15 · sector 19
FUTURE 57 · sector 4
PAST 12 · sector 15
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 76 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Tata Steel Limited TTST $0.2010 $0.2000 -0%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,227 ₹1,140 -7%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.89 ¥8.07 +37%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 38.55 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 313,500 KRW 155,270 KRW -50%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,940 ARS +17%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,028 ₹545.12 -47%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,844 ₹1,098 -40%
Gerdau S.A GGBN 83.50 MXN 42.64 MXN -49%
Ternium S.A TXR 17,780 ARS 27,210 ARS +53%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shougang Century Holdings (0103) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.51 versus a price of HK$1.75, about −14% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0103?
Our model-based fair value for Shougang Century Holdings is HK$1.51 (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.75.
What is the quality score of 0103?
Shougang Century Holdings has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shougang Century Holdings (0103)?
Shougang Century Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0103?
The net profit margin of Shougang Century Holdings is about 2.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shougang Century Holdings pay a dividend?
Shougang Century Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.80% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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