Century Ginwa Retail Holdings Ltd (0162) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$46.0M (≈ $5.9M) · ISIN BMG2021K1172
What is Century Ginwa Retail Holdings Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 33% above our fair value of HK$0.0316.
As of Aug 27, 2026, the fair value of Century Ginwa Retail Holdings Ltd is HK$0.0316 per share against a price of HK$0.0420, so the fair value sits 25% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from HK$0.0307 to HK$0.0316 (+2.9%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +31.3% over the past month.
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What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.0355). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The models converge in a tight band (HK$0.0316 to HK$0.0355), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0320 – HK$0.4550 · fair‑value band HK$0.0316 – HK$0.0355 · the HK$0.0420 price screens above the HK$0.0316 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Century Ginwa Retail Holdings Ltd (0162) currently trades at HK$0.0420, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0316, implying the stock looks roughly 32.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at HK$375M. Revenue grew 33.3% year over year. Net debt stands at HK$5.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.0316 (bear case) to HK$0.0355 (bull case); at HK$0.0420, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −25%, 0162 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Century Ginwa Retail Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of department stores, a shopping mall, and supermarkets in the People's Republic of China. The company also engages in the properties management activities.
Full company description
Century Ginwa Retail Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the operation of department stores, a shopping mall, and supermarkets in the People's Republic of China. The company also engages in the properties management activities. Century Ginwa Retail Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Century Ginwa Retail Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 582M CNY in FY2026 versus 494M CNY in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −418M CNY in FY2026.
0162 screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Falabella S.A →
Peer Group
Department Stores · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falabella S.A FALABELLA | 6,380 CLP | 8,005 CLP | +25% |
| Dillard's, Inc DDS | $630.71 | $536.21 | −15% |
| 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 | 3.65 MYR | 1.59 MYR | −56% |
| Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD | 1,949 CLP | 2,425 CLP | +24% |
| Macy's, Inc M | $21.93 | $42.68 | +95% |
| Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM | ₹107.00 | ₹30.46 | −72% |
| Central Retail Corporation CRC | 27.50 THB | 20.89 THB | −24% |
| SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 | 424,000 KRW | 177,841 KRW | −58% |
| Lotte Shopping Co 023530 | 96,700 KRW | 76,636 KRW | −21% |
| PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk MDIY | 940.00 IDR | 968.76 IDR | +3% |
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