Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Dillard's, Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $119.56 – $699.51 · fair‑value band $404.51 – $724.36 · the $636.26 price screens above the $536.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Dillard's, Inc. operates retail department stores in the southeastern, southwestern, and midwestern areas of the United States. The company offers fashion apparel for men, women, and children; accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings, and other consumer goods through dillards.com, an Internet store and clearance centers.
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Dillard's, Inc. operates retail department stores in the southeastern, southwestern, and midwestern areas of the United States. The company offers fashion apparel for men, women, and children; accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings, and other consumer goods through dillards.com, an Internet store and clearance centers. It also engages in the general contracting construction activities, such as constructing and remodeling stores for the company. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Stock analysis
Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) currently trades at $636.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $536.21, implying the stock looks roughly 18.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $607.76 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the $636.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $76.41, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $404.51 (bear) to $724.36 (bull), the price of $636.26 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Dillard's, Inc. reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2026 versus $6.6B in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $571M in FY2026, compounding −9.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $9.9B · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) $42.06 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 33.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 27.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −16%, DDS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $404.51Fair Value $536.21Bull $724.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($26.33 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 18%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 11%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 115 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−18% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dillard's, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DDS
Frequently asked questions
Is Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $536.21 versus a price of $636.26, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DDS?
Our model-based fair value for Dillard's, Inc. is $536.21 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $636.26.
What is the quality score of DDS?
Dillard's, Inc. has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $536.21 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $404.51, optimistic scenario $724.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dillard's, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $536.21, about −16% upside versus a price of $636.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $404.51, optimistic scenario $724.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
Dillard's, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Dillard's, Inc. pay a dividend?
Dillard's, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dillard's, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DDS use?
Our models discount Dillard's, Inc. at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dillard's, Inc. that is +5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dillard's, Inc. grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dillard's, Inc. (+5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.28 %: that much free cash flow Dillard's, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dillard's, Inc. it is $536.21 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $636.26. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dillard's, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, DDS trades above its calculated fair value: price $636.26, fair value $536.21, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DDS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($636.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($536.21). For Dillard's, Inc. the two are $100.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dillard's, Inc. worth?
The market values Dillard's, Inc. at about $9.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $636.26; our models calculate a fair value of $536.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DDS?
Our models span a range for Dillard's, Inc.: cautious scenario $404.51, base $536.21, optimistic $724.36 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $636.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DDS?
Dillard's, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $536.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 5.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
What is the PEG ratio of DDS?
The PEG ratio of Dillard's, Inc. is 2.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dillard's, Inc. (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 33.8%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DDS from its 52-week high?
Dillard's, Inc. trades at $636.26, about 10% below its 52-week high of $710.68 and 68% above the low of $377.64 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $536.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dillard's, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Cencosud S.A, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dillard's, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $636.26, calculated fair value $536.21 (−16%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DDS calculated?
We run Dillard's, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $536.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Dillard's, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $636.26. Our model-based fair value is $536.21, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dillard's, Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) come from?
Earnings per share at Dillard's, Inc. grew +21.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.3 %, EBIT margin +6.3 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Dillard's, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
The market capitalisation of Dillard's, Inc. is $9.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dillard's, Inc. is 1.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
Earnings per share at Dillard's, Inc. are $42.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
The dividend yield of Dillard's, Inc. is 0.1% (payout 2.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
The net margin of Dillard's, Inc. is 8.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dillard's, Inc. is 33.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dillard's, Inc. is 27.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
The operating margin of Dillard's, Inc. is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
Revenue at Dillard's, Inc. is growing +2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)?
Earnings per share at Dillard's, Inc. are growing +54.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) hold?
Dillard's, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $304M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026