Dillard's, Inc (DDS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $8.2B
Dillard's, Inc
DDS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $486.15 to $544.14 (+11.9%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +18.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from $409.74 (bear) to $730.95 (bull), base $544.14. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 72/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $75.43 – $699.51 · fair‑value band $409.74 – $730.95 · the $617.07 price screens above the $544.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Dillard's, Inc (DDS) currently trades at $617.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $544.14, implying the stock looks roughly 11.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Dillard's, Inc generated revenue of $6.6B at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $304M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $409.74 (bear case) to $730.95 (bull case); at $617.07, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at -12%, DDS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($834.01) versus Asset-Based ($102.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Dillard's, Inc. operates retail department stores in the southeastern, southwestern, and midwestern areas of the United States. The company offers fashion apparel for men, women, and children; accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings, and other consumer goods through dillards.com, an Internet store and clearance centers.
Full company description
Dillard's, Inc. operates retail department stores in the southeastern, southwestern, and midwestern areas of the United States. The company offers fashion apparel for men, women, and children; accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings, and other consumer goods through dillards.com, an Internet store and clearance centers. It also engages in the general contracting construction activities, such as constructing and remodeling stores for the company. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Dillard's, Inc reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2026 versus $6.6B in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $571M in FY2026, compounding −9.8%/yr from FY2022.
DDS screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Falabella S.A →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Dillard's (DDS): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?
- DDS Crosses Above Average Analyst Target
- Dillard's (DDS) Stock Could Be 41% Rich Despite Omnichannel Growth
Peer Group
Department Stores · 129 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falabella S.A FALABELLA | 5,875 CLP | 8,880 CLP | +51% |
| El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 | 99.62 MXN | 263.70 MXN | +165% |
| 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 | 3.70 MYR | 1.45 MYR | -61% |
| Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD | 2,040 CLP | 2,516 CLP | +23% |
| Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM | ₹113.94 | ₹37.39 | -67% |
| Yonghui Superstores Co 601933 | ¥3.01 | ¥1.62 | -46% |
| SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 | 610,000 KRW | 200,259 KRW | -67% |
| Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB | 30.04 MXN | 59.59 MXN | +98% |
| Lotte Shopping Co 023530 | 155,300 KRW | 81,725 KRW | -47% |
| Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 | R$14.10 | R$33.36 | +137% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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