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Pokfulam Development Co Ltd (0225) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$584M (≈ $74.5M) · ISIN HK0225001145

What is Pokfulam Development Co Ltd really worth?

PD Pokfulam Development Co Ltd 0225 · HK
PriceHK$5.10
Fair ValueHK$9.18
Upside+80.0%
Quality67/100

A solid business, trading 44% below our fair value of HK$9.18.

As of Sep 6, 2026, the fair value of Pokfulam Development Co Ltd is HK$9.18 per share against a price of HK$5.10, so the fair value sits 80% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (8/12)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -23.1% net margin
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 3 out of 100

For context

·7.06% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$6.10 – HK$12.26

Fair value as of: Sep 6, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated today

Share price −5.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$6.10 to HK$12.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$9.07 HK$4.12 Fair Value HK$9.18 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$4.12 – HK$9.07 · fair‑value band HK$6.10 – HK$12.26 · the HK$5.10 price screens below the HK$9.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 6, 2026.

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Analysis

Pokfulam Development Co Ltd (0225) currently trades at HK$5.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.18, implying the stock looks roughly 44.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$26.59 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$5.10 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$3.76, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Pokfulam Development Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$178M at a net margin of −23.1%. Revenue grew 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −0.9%. Net debt stands at HK$345M. Fundamentals as of Sep 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$6.10 (bear case) to HK$12.26 (bull case); at HK$5.10, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 80%, 0225 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$4.37 HK$5.77 HK$7.47 82
Growth DCF HK$4.46 HK$5.76 HK$7.28 80
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$6.43 HK$10.02 HK$13.99 75
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$4.37 HK$5.77 HK$7.47 82
5Y Revenue Exit HK$5.28 HK$8.02 HK$11.36 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$6.43 HK$10.02 HK$13.99 75
10Y Revenue Exit HK$4.69 HK$6.90 HK$9.54 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.50 HK$8.12 HK$11.26 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.80 HK$3.89 HK$4.89 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.80 HK$3.76 HK$4.73 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$11.67 HK$15.59 HK$19.50 66
EV/EBITDA HK$9.15 HK$12.22 HK$15.30 67
EV/Revenue HK$6.40 HK$9.17 HK$11.95 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$19.85 HK$26.59 HK$39.69 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$4.46 HK$5.76 HK$7.28 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$5.28 HK$8.08 HK$11.00 73

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$26.59) versus Dividend Discount (HK$3.76). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 3.28 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$−0.7700
Dividend yield 7.1%
Net margin −115% FY2025
Return on equity −0.9% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 54.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$178M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.5% 3y avg +4.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +36.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$56.6M FY2025
Net debt HK$345M FY2025 · ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Pokfulam Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and manages real estate properties in Hong Kong. The company operates through Property Investment and Management, Trading of Goods, and Securities Investment segments. It is also involved in letting and management of commercial, industrial, and residential properties.

Full company description

Pokfulam Development Company Limited, an investment holding company, invests in, develops, and manages real estate properties in Hong Kong. The company operates through Property Investment and Management, Trading of Goods, and Securities Investment segments. It is also involved in letting and management of commercial, industrial, and residential properties. In addition, the company provides audio-visual, CCTV security, digital signage, public address, and video wall solutions, as well as high-end high-fidelity audio systems to both government and private end users. Further, it offers trustee and nominee services and securities dealing services. Pokfulam Development Company Limited was incorporated in 1970 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Pokfulam Development Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$187M in FY2025 versus HK$169M in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$216M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$187M
Latest YoY
+2.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.0% (2020) → 41.9% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +2.5%/yr
FY21 HK$169M
FY22 HK$164M
FY23 HK$194M
FY24 HK$183M
FY25 HK$187M
Net income
FY21 HK$137M
FY22 HK$14.8M
FY23 −HK$182M
FY24 −HK$597M
FY25 −HK$216M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pokfulam Development Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0225.HK

Peer Group

Real Estate Services · 525 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +80% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −23% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 54% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 0.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 29
FUTURE3 · sector 11
PAST0 · sector 17
HEALTH99 · sector 84
DIVIDEND100 · sector 63

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CBRE Group CBRE $148.74 $69.47 −53%
Vonovia SE VNA €19.85 €36.67 +85%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €27.47 €25.46 −7%
KE Holdings BEKE $17.42 $6.57 −62%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $378.01 $290.25 −23%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$24.84 HK$5.12 −79%
CoStar Group CSGP $32.22 $4.64 −86%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$39.84 HK$34.95 −12%
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.66 SGD 0.4900 SGD −82%
Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA 4,040 CLP 4,571 CLP +13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Pokfulam Development Co Ltd (0225) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.18 versus a price of HK$5.10, about +80% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0225?
Our model-based fair value for Pokfulam Development Co Ltd is HK$9.18 (as of Sep 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.10.
What is the quality score of 0225?
Pokfulam Development Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pokfulam Development Co Ltd (0225)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$9.18 (as of Sep 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.10, optimistic scenario HK$12.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pokfulam Development Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$9.18, about +80% upside versus a price of HK$5.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.10, optimistic scenario HK$12.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pokfulam Development Co Ltd (0225)?
Pokfulam Development Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$178M (latest available figure, as of Sep 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0225?
The net profit margin of Pokfulam Development Co Ltd is about −23.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Pokfulam Development Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Pokfulam Development Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 6, 2026).
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