Tomson Group (0258) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$4.6B
Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 2, 2026, revised from HK$5.10 to HK$5.70 (+11.8%) since Jul 1, 2026. Share price −2.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 171% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$4.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$4.06 to HK$7.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.09 – HK$3.38 · fair‑value band HK$4.06 – HK$7.33 · the HK$2.10 price screens below the HK$5.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.
Analysis
Tomson Group (0258) currently trades at HK$2.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$5.70, implying the stock looks roughly 171.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tomson Group generated revenue of HK$2.9B at a net margin of 26.9%. Revenue grew 11.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$957M. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$4.06 (bear case) to HK$7.33 (bull case); at HK$2.10, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at 171%, 0258 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$16.08) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.3000). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tomson Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, securities trading, and media and entertainment investment and operation businesses in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China.
Full company description
Tomson Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, securities trading, and media and entertainment investment and operation businesses in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. The company develops residential, commercial, and industrial properties; and offers property management services. It also operates golf course and clubs. In addition, the company engages in investment in live entertainment shows; provision of property, secretarial, and administrative services; film distribution business; and trademark and property holding activities. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tomson Group reported revenue of HK$2.9B in FY2025 versus HK$942M in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$791M in FY2025, compounding +29.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −7.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 137 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 129.20 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 68.75 THB | 71.37 THB | +4% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,733 | ₹645.21 | -63% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹2,076 | ₹701.74 | -66% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 16.39 SAR | 11.62 SAR | -29% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 50.42 | kr 70.70 | +40% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.89 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥19.95 | ¥4.60 | -77% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,940 CLP | 2,777 CLP | -30% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 53.94 MXN | -9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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