Tomson Group Ltd (0258) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tomson Group Ltd HK$2.90, price HK$2.20, upside +32.1%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.09 – HK$3.38 · fair‑value band HK$1.78 – HK$5.00 · the HK$2.20 price screens below the HK$2.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tomson Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, securities trading, and media and entertainment investment and operation businesses in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China.
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Tomson Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, securities trading, and media and entertainment investment and operation businesses in Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China. The company develops residential, commercial, and industrial properties; and offers property management services. It also operates golf course and clubs. In addition, the company engages in investment in live entertainment shows; provision of property, secretarial, and administrative services; film distribution business; and trademark and property holding activities. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Tomson Group Ltd (0258) currently trades at HK$2.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$2.90, implying the stock looks roughly 24.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$14.47 per share, and 14 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$2.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.89, and 2 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.78 (bear) to HK$5.00 (bull), the price of HK$2.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tomson Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$2.9B in FY2025 versus HK$942M in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$791M in FY2025, compounding +29.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$4.9B (≈ $621M) · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3600 · Dividend yield 6.2% · Net margin 26.9% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 32%, 0258 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.78Fair Value HK$2.90Bull HK$5.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1652 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+38.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+32.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.32% vs 0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 60%
2025 sits 1,585% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −22.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 133 stocks
Beats the industry median on 14/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+32% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)27% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)35% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tomson Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0258
Frequently asked questions
Is Tomson Group Ltd (0258) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$2.90 versus a price of HK$2.20, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0258?
Our model-based fair value for Tomson Group Ltd is HK$2.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.20.
What is the quality score of 0258?
Tomson Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$2.90 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.78, optimistic scenario HK$5.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tomson Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$2.90, about +32% upside versus a price of HK$2.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.78, optimistic scenario HK$5.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
Tomson Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tomson Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Tomson Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tomson Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -21.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0258 use?
Our models discount Tomson Group Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tomson Group Ltd that is -21.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tomson Group Ltd (0258) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tomson Group Ltd grew +20.3 % a year. The price currently implies -21.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tomson Group Ltd (0258) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tomson Group Ltd (-21.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.52 %: that much free cash flow Tomson Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tomson Group Ltd it is HK$2.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$2.20. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tomson Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0258 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$2.20, fair value HK$2.90, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0258?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$2.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$2.90). For Tomson Group Ltd the two are HK$0.7050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tomson Group Ltd worth?
The market values Tomson Group Ltd at about HK$4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$2.20; our models calculate a fair value of HK$2.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0258?
Our models span a range for Tomson Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.78, base HK$2.90, optimistic HK$5.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$2.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0258?
Tomson Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$2.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 1.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tomson Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0258 from its 52-week high?
Tomson Group Ltd trades at HK$2.20, about 20% below its 52-week high of HK$2.74 and 10% above the low of HK$2.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$2.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tomson Group Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tomson Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$2.20, calculated fair value HK$2.90 (+32%), Quality Score 64/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0258 calculated?
We run Tomson Group Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$2.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tomson Group Ltd currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$2.20. Our model-based fair value is HK$2.90, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tomson Group Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$1.78 to HK$5.00). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Tomson Group Ltd (0258) come from?
Earnings per share at Tomson Group Ltd grew −7.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −10.1 %, EBIT margin +5.9 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tomson Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
The market capitalisation of Tomson Group Ltd is HK$4.9B (≈ $621M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tomson Group Ltd is 1.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
Earnings per share at Tomson Group Ltd are HK$0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
The dividend yield of Tomson Group Ltd is 6.2% (payout 37.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
The net margin of Tomson Group Ltd is 26.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tomson Group Ltd is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tomson Group Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
The operating margin of Tomson Group Ltd is 34.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
Revenue at Tomson Group Ltd is growing +11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +70.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tomson Group Ltd (0258)?
Earnings per share at Tomson Group Ltd are growing −88.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tomson Group Ltd (0258) hold?
Tomson Group Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$957M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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