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Tern Properties Co Ltd (0277) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$430M (≈ $54.8M) · ISIN HK0277001415

What is Tern Properties Co Ltd really worth?

TP Tern Properties Co Ltd 0277 · HK
PriceHK$1.14
Fair ValueHK$1.12
Upside−1.4%
Quality59/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of HK$1.12.

As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of Tern Properties Co Ltd is HK$1.12 per share against a price of HK$1.14, so the fair value sits 1% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -50.3% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·1.50% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$1.06 – HK$1.28

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 9 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Share price −1.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.76 HK$1.14 Fair Value HK$1.12 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.14 – HK$3.76 · fair‑value band HK$1.06 – HK$1.28 · the HK$1.14 price screens above the HK$1.12 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Tern Properties Co Ltd (0277) currently trades at HK$1.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.12, implying the stock looks roughly 1.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$6.10 per share, and 5 of the 9 models we run sit above the HK$1.14 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$0.1400, and 4 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tern Properties Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$52.4M at a net margin of −50.3%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −1.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$235M. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$1.06 (bear case) to HK$1.28 (bull case); at HK$1.14, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −1%, 0277 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0330 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$1.07 HK$1.13 HK$1.24 82
Growth DCF HK$1.08 HK$1.14 HK$1.23 80
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.07 HK$1.17 HK$1.30 74
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$1.07 HK$1.13 HK$1.24 82
5Y Revenue Exit HK$1.07 HK$1.17 HK$1.30 74
10Y Revenue Exit HK$1.06 HK$1.13 HK$1.20 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$0.1300 HK$0.1400 HK$0.1600 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$0.1300 HK$0.1600 HK$0.1900 67
Multiples
EV/Revenue HK$1.09 HK$1.20 HK$1.30 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.55 HK$6.10 HK$9.10 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$1.08 HK$1.14 HK$1.23 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$1.07 HK$1.17 HK$1.30 74

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$6.10) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.1400). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 8.21 TTM
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500
Dividend yield 1.5% payout 34.0%
Net margin −108% FY2025
Return on equity −1.1% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −1.8% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 13.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$52.4M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +17.3% 3y avg −4.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$7.2M FY2025
Net cash HK$235M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 5
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 7
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Tern Properties Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property investment and treasury investment businesses in Hong Kong. The company's Property Investment segment involved in property investment and leasing. Its Treasury Investment segment invests in debt and equity securities.

Full company description

Tern Properties Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in property investment and treasury investment businesses in Hong Kong. The company's Property Investment segment involved in property investment and leasing. Its Treasury Investment segment invests in debt and equity securities. The company was formerly known as Eco Properties Limited and changed its name to Tern Properties Company Limited in March 1988. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Tern Properties Company Limited is a subsidiary of Noranger Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tern Properties Co Ltd reported revenue of HK$50.4M in FY2025 versus HK$64.5M in FY2021, a compound −6.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$54.5M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 23/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$50.4M
Latest YoY
−10.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−4.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.8%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−636.4% (2020) → −90.0% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −6.0%/yr
FY21 HK$64.5M
FY22 HK$57.1M
FY23 HK$51.9M
FY24 HK$56.0M
FY25 HK$50.4M
Net income
FY21 −HK$134M
FY22 −HK$55.1M
FY23 −HK$75.2M
FY24 −HK$9.8M
FY25 −HK$54.5M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tern Properties Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0277.HK

Peer Group

Real Estate Services · 525 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −1% · Above median
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −50% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Below median
Revenue growth 17% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 1.05× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.6× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE31 · sector 29
FUTURE87 · sector 11
PAST0 · sector 17
HEALTH99 · sector 84
DIVIDEND30 · sector 63

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CBRE Group CBRE $148.74 $69.47 −53%
Vonovia SE VNA €19.85 €36.67 +85%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €27.47 €25.46 −7%
KE Holdings BEKE $17.42 $6.57 −62%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $378.01 $290.25 −23%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$24.84 HK$5.12 −79%
CoStar Group CSGP $32.22 $4.64 −86%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$39.84 HK$34.95 −12%
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.66 SGD 0.4900 SGD −82%
Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA 4,040 CLP 4,571 CLP +13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tern Properties Co Ltd (0277) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.12 versus a price of HK$1.14, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0277?
Our model-based fair value for Tern Properties Co Ltd is HK$1.12 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.14.
What is the quality score of 0277?
Tern Properties Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tern Properties Co Ltd (0277)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.12 (as of Aug 19, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.06, optimistic scenario HK$1.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tern Properties Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.12, about −1% upside versus a price of HK$1.14 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$1.06, optimistic scenario HK$1.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tern Properties Co Ltd (0277)?
Tern Properties Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$52.4M (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0277?
The net profit margin of Tern Properties Co Ltd is about −50.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tern Properties Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Tern Properties Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.50% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
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