Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Sinofert Holdings Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.6178 – HK$1.80 · fair‑value band HK$3.77 – HK$11.73 · the HK$1.31 price screens below the HK$7.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Sinofert Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production, import and export, distribution, and retail of fertilizer raw materials and crop nutrition products in Mainland China and internationally. The company operates through Basic Business, Growth Business, and Production segments.
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Sinofert Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the production, import and export, distribution, and retail of fertilizer raw materials and crop nutrition products in Mainland China and internationally. The company operates through Basic Business, Growth Business, and Production segments. It offers potash; phosphate; bio-compound fertilizers; special and nitrogen fertilizers; sulfur, crop protection, and seeds; and monocalcium and dicalcium phosphate. The company also provides technological research and development, and services relating to crop nutrition business and products; trades in fertilizers; develops agriculture products; and manufactures and sells feeds. In addition, it explores for and exploits a phosphate mine and produces monodicalcium phosphate. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Sinofert Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Syngenta Group (Hk) Holdings Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297) currently trades at HK$1.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$7.13, implying the stock looks roughly 81.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$7.72 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$1.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.07, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$3.77 (bear) to HK$11.73 (bull), the price of HK$1.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Sinofert Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 23.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 22.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +9.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$9.2B (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.1600 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 11.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 446%, 0297 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$3.77Fair Value HK$7.13Bull HK$11.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0683 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 19%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 6%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 176 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+73% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$7.13 versus a price of HK$1.31, about +446% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0297?
Our model-based fair value for Sinofert Holdings Ltd is HK$7.13 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.31.
What is the quality score of 0297?
Sinofert Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$7.13 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$3.77, optimistic scenario HK$11.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sinofert Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$7.13, about +446% upside versus a price of HK$1.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$3.77, optimistic scenario HK$11.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
Sinofert Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$23.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Sinofert Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Sinofert Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sinofert Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0297 use?
Our models discount Sinofert Holdings Ltd at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sinofert Holdings Ltd that is -18.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sinofert Holdings Ltd grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies -18.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sinofert Holdings Ltd (-18.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.24 %: that much free cash flow Sinofert Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sinofert Holdings Ltd it is HK$7.13 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of HK$1.31. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sinofert Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, 0297 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.31, fair value HK$7.13, a gap of about +446% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0297?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$7.13). For Sinofert Holdings Ltd the two are HK$5.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sinofert Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Sinofert Holdings Ltd at about HK$9.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.31; our models calculate a fair value of HK$7.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0297?
Our models span a range for Sinofert Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$3.77, base HK$7.13, optimistic HK$11.73 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price HK$1.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0297?
Sinofert Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$7.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sinofert Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 11.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0297 from its 52-week high?
Sinofert Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.31, about 34% below its 52-week high of HK$1.98 and 8% above the low of HK$1.21 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$7.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sinofert Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sinofert Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price HK$1.31, calculated fair value HK$7.13 (+446%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0297 calculated?
We run Sinofert Holdings Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$7.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Sinofert Holdings Ltd currently trades 446 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Sinofert Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.77). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$3.77 to HK$11.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Sinofert Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
The market capitalisation of Sinofert Holdings Ltd is HK$9.2B (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sinofert Holdings Ltd is 0.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
Earnings per share at Sinofert Holdings Ltd are HK$0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
The dividend yield of Sinofert Holdings Ltd is 4.8% (payout 39.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
The net margin of Sinofert Holdings Ltd is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sinofert Holdings Ltd is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sinofert Holdings Ltd is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
The operating margin of Sinofert Holdings Ltd is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
Revenue at Sinofert Holdings Ltd is growing +12.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297)?
Earnings per share at Sinofert Holdings Ltd are growing +13.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sinofert Holdings Ltd (0297) hold?
Sinofert Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$1.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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