VTech Holdings Ltd (0303) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of VTech Holdings Ltd HK$74.84, price HK$51.45, upside +45.5%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$30.94 – HK$66.60 · fair‑value band HK$51.73 – HK$99.06 · the HK$51.45 price screens below the HK$74.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Vtech Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes consumer electronic products in Hong Kong, North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally.
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Vtech Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and distributes consumer electronic products in Hong Kong, North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company offers electronic learning toys for infancy through toddler, and preschool under the Vtech and LeapFrog brands; platform products, including motion-based learning system, smartwatches, interactive reading systems, learning globe, educational tablets, activity desks, Wi-Fi enabled smart device, and handheld communication devices, as well as educational and fun apps and games. It also provides telecommunication products, such as residential, commercial, and smartphones under the Vtech, Gigaset, snom, AT&T brands; and other telecommunication products, including baby monitors, and handsets. In addition, the company offers contract manufacturing services for customers in the areas of professional audio equipment, hearables, medical and health, and internet of things products. Further, it provides property holding, and group financing and procurement services; develops broadband connectivity software; manufactures consumer electronic products; sells telecommunication and electronic products; and manufactures and sells plastic products. Vtech Holdings Limited was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Tai Po, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
VTech Holdings Ltd (0303) currently trades at HK$51.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$74.84, implying the stock looks roughly 31.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$11.06 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$51.45 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at HK$8.21, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$51.73 (bear) to HK$99.06 (bull), the price of HK$51.45 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
VTech Holdings Ltd reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2026 versus $2.4B in FY2022, a compound −3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $134M in FY2026, compounding −6.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap HK$13.0B (≈ $1.7B) · P/E ratio 12.4 · P/S ratio 0.82 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.3000 · Dividend yield 9.3% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 20.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at 45%, 0303 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (HK$1.71 to HK$17.58). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear HK$51.73Fair Value HK$74.84Bull HK$99.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.8% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7% vs −3%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 316 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+45% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Is VTech Holdings Ltd (0303) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$74.84 versus a price of HK$51.45, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0303?
Our model-based fair value for VTech Holdings Ltd is HK$74.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$51.45.
What is the quality score of 0303?
VTech Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$74.84 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$51.73, optimistic scenario HK$99.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VTech Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$74.84, about +45% upside versus a price of HK$51.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$51.73, optimistic scenario HK$99.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
VTech Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does VTech Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
VTech Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, VTech Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0303 use?
Our models discount VTech Holdings Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For VTech Holdings Ltd that is +5.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has VTech Holdings Ltd (0303) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at VTech Holdings Ltd grew -3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +5.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into VTech Holdings Ltd (+5.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.55 %: that much free cash flow VTech Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VTech Holdings Ltd it is HK$74.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$51.45. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VTech Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0303 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$51.45, fair value HK$74.84, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0303?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$51.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$74.84). For VTech Holdings Ltd the two are HK$23.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VTech Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values VTech Holdings Ltd at about HK$13.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$51.45; our models calculate a fair value of HK$74.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0303?
Our models span a range for VTech Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$51.73, base HK$74.84, optimistic HK$99.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$51.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0303?
VTech Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$74.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 0303?
The PEG ratio of VTech Holdings Ltd is 1.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
Balance-sheet figures for VTech Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0303 from its 52-week high?
VTech Holdings Ltd trades at HK$51.45, about 23% below its 52-week high of HK$66.60 and 7% above the low of HK$48.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$74.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VTech Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Zhongji Innolight Co, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VTech Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$51.45, calculated fair value HK$74.84 (+45%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0303 calculated?
We run VTech Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$74.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. VTech Holdings Ltd currently trades 45 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$51.45. Our model-based fair value is HK$74.84, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VTech Holdings Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range (HK$51.73 to HK$99.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303) come from?
Earnings per share at VTech Holdings Ltd grew −2.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.9 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of VTech Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
The market capitalisation of VTech Holdings Ltd is HK$13.0B (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VTech Holdings Ltd is 0.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
Earnings per share at VTech Holdings Ltd are HK$0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
The dividend yield of VTech Holdings Ltd is 9.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
The net margin of VTech Holdings Ltd is 6.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VTech Holdings Ltd is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VTech Holdings Ltd is 14.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
The operating margin of VTech Holdings Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
Revenue at VTech Holdings Ltd is growing −4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VTech Holdings Ltd (0303)?
Earnings per share at VTech Holdings Ltd are growing −14.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does VTech Holdings Ltd (0303) hold?
VTech Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, $137M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026