Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd HK$26.76, price HK$12.89, upside +107.6%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$5.81 – HK$15.53 · fair‑value band HK$21.70 – HK$33.46 · the HK$12.89 price screens below the HK$26.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the infrastructure and environmental protection, real estate, consumer products, and comprehensive healthcare operations businesses in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, rest of Asia, and internationally.
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Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the infrastructure and environmental protection, real estate, consumer products, and comprehensive healthcare operations businesses in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, rest of Asia, and internationally. The company invests in toll road and bridge projects; and water services/clean energy businesses. It also engages in property development and investment activities, as well as hotel operations. In addition, the company manufactures and sells cigarettes, packaging materials, and printed products; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products. Further, it engages in the raw materials sourcing business; provision of distribution and supply chain solutions services; and operation and franchise of a network of retail pharmacies. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Shanghai Industrial Investment (Holding) Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363) currently trades at HK$12.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$26.76, implying the stock looks roughly 51.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$46.84 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$12.89 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$10.20, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$21.70 (bear) to HK$33.46 (bull), the price of HK$12.89 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$20.8B in FY2025 versus HK$38.7B in FY2021, a compound −14.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.0B in FY2025, compounding −14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$14.0B (≈ $1.8B) · P/E ratio 6.9 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) HK$1.86 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 108%, 0363 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$21.70Fair Value HK$26.76Bull HK$33.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.2496 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.2%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10% vs −3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 20%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.0% a year for the price.
Compare Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+100% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−39% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.77× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Is Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$26.76 versus a price of HK$12.89, about +108% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0363?
Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is HK$26.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$12.89.
What is the quality score of 0363?
Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$26.76 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$21.70, optimistic scenario HK$33.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$26.76, about +108% upside versus a price of HK$12.89 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$21.70, optimistic scenario HK$33.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0363 use?
Our models discount Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd that is -9.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd grew -5.2 % a year. The price currently implies -9.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (-9.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 44.32 %: that much free cash flow Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd it is HK$26.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of HK$12.89. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0363 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$12.89, fair value HK$26.76, a gap of about +108% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0363?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$12.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$26.76). For Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd the two are HK$13.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd at about HK$14.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is HK$12.89; our models calculate a fair value of HK$26.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0363?
Our models span a range for Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$21.70, base HK$26.76, optimistic HK$33.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price HK$12.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0363?
Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$26.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.3, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 0363?
The PEG ratio of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.2%, debt of 0.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0363 from its 52-week high?
Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd trades at HK$12.89, about 17% below its 52-week high of HK$15.53 and 5% above the low of HK$12.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$26.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price HK$12.89, calculated fair value HK$26.76 (+108%), Quality Score 59/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0363 calculated?
We run Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$26.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd currently trades 108 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was HK$12.89. Our model-based fair value is HK$26.76, about +108% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$21.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363) come from?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd grew +0.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
The market capitalisation of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is HK$14.0B (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is 0.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd are HK$1.86 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
The dividend yield of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is 4.8% (payout 33.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
The net margin of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is 9.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
The operating margin of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is 26.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
Revenue at Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is growing −38.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363)?
Earnings per share at Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd are growing −39.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (0363) carry?
The net debt of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd is HK$27.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026