China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · HK · Market cap HK$55.2M (≈ $7.0M) · ISIN BMG215A41075

What is China Tontine Wines Group Ltd really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.2900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1440 – HK$1.56 · fair‑value band HK$0.2100 – HK$0.2900 · the HK$0.3900 price screens above the HK$0.2400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Tontine Wines Group Ltd (0389) currently trades at HK$0.3900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2400, implying the stock looks roughly 62.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of HK$1.41 per share, and 9 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$0.3900 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1800, and 6 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Tontine Wines Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$159M at a net margin of −0.5%. Revenue grew 92.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.2100 (bear case) to HK$0.2900 (bull case); at HK$0.3900, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 117% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −38%, 0389 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (HK$1.41) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.1800). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

China Tontine Wines Group Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells grape wine in the People's Republic of China. It offers sweet wines and dry wines under the Tongtian, Tongtian Hong, and TONTINE labels. The company also produces and sells brandy, white wines, and other wine products, as well as processes grape juices.

Full company description

China Tontine Wines Group Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells grape wine in the People's Republic of China. It offers sweet wines and dry wines under the Tongtian, Tongtian Hong, and TONTINE labels. The company also produces and sells brandy, white wines, and other wine products, as well as processes grape juices. China Tontine Wines Group Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Tonghua, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Tontine Wines Group Ltd reported revenue of 159M CNY in FY2025 versus 208M CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −843K CNY in FY2025.

0389 screens 62% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 93 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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