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China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited HK$0.38, price HK$0.09, upside +313.7%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · HK · ISIN BMG2121N1020

CA Thin data Sep 27, 2026

China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited

0526 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$0.3848 · Strongly undervalued (+313.7%)
!Quality 48/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/12)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 17 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$0.2550 HK$0.0170 Fair Value HK$0.3848 Feb 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.0170 – HK$0.2550 · fair‑value band HK$0.3468 – HK$0.4418 · the HK$0.0930 price screens below the HK$0.3848 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Lisi Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in plastic and metallic household products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Manufacturing and Trading, Retail, Wholesale, and Investments Holding.

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Lisi Group (Holdings) Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and trades in plastic and metallic household products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Manufacturing and Trading, Retail, Wholesale, and Investments Holding. It engages in the property rental services; wholesale of wine; and wholesale and installation of household electrical appliances, and heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment, as well as operates department stores and supermarkets. It provides financing services and invests in debt and equity securities. The company was formerly known as China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited and changed its name to Lisi Group (Holdings) Limited in October 2022. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Tsuen Wan, Hong Kong.

Stock analysis

China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526) currently trades at HK$0.0930, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.3848, implying the stock looks roughly 75.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$0.4800 per share, and 24 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$0.0930 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.1200, and 0 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$0.3468 (bear) to HK$0.4418 (bull), the price of HK$0.0930 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited reported revenue of HK$2.1B in FY2026 versus HK$2.1B in FY2022, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$118M in FY2026, compounding −16.0%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.1B (≈ $145M) · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6% · Operating margin 9.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 314%, 0526 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.3468 Fair Value HK$0.3848 Bull HK$0.4418
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0102 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$0.3700 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6100 82
Growth DCF HK$0.3700 HK$0.4700 HK$0.5800 80
Owner Earnings HK$0.2700 HK$0.3200 HK$0.3900 78
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.3700 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6100 82
Owner Earnings HK$0.2700 HK$0.3200 HK$0.3900 78
5Y Revenue Exit HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6300 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.4300 HK$0.6200 HK$0.8500 76
5Y P/E Exit HK$0.3600 HK$0.4900 HK$0.6200 72
10Y Revenue Exit HK$0.3600 HK$0.4600 HK$0.6000 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$0.4000 HK$0.5500 HK$0.7500 69
10Y P/E Exit HK$0.3700 HK$0.4600 HK$0.5900 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.0900 HK$0.3500 HK$0.4700 64
Lynch FV HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 HK$0.1600 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.0800 HK$0.1200 HK$0.1600 57
EPV HK$0.3400 HK$0.3600 HK$0.3800 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.2200 HK$0.2900 HK$0.3700 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.1700 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2800 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.1700 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2800 55
EV/EBIT HK$0.5400 HK$0.6700 HK$0.7900 66
EV/EBITDA HK$0.5100 HK$0.6300 HK$0.7500 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.3600 HK$0.4500 HK$0.5300 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.1500 HK$0.2000 HK$0.2900 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.3700 HK$0.4700 HK$0.5800 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$0.3600 HK$0.4800 HK$0.6200 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$0.2000 HK$0.1900 HK$0.1900 71
ROIC Compounder HK$0.3500 HK$0.3900 HK$0.4300 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.1600 HK$0.2300 HK$0.2900 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 25
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−21.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.6% vs 1.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−80% → 12%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 262 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4.4% · Below median
Return on assets 3.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4.5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −20.6% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.44× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.48× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)17 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €10.45 €9.66 −8%
SIG Group SIGN CHF 13.37 CHF 9.59 −28%
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Sonoco Products Company SON $50.06 $61.98 +24%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.3848 versus a price of HK$0.0930, about +314% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0526?
Our model-based fair value for China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited is HK$0.3848 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0930.
What is the quality score of 0526?
China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.3848 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.3468, optimistic scenario HK$0.4418. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.3848, about +314% upside versus a price of HK$0.0930 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.3468, optimistic scenario HK$0.4418. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$2.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0526 use?
Our models discount China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited grew +2.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.65 %: that much free cash flow China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited it is HK$0.3848 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0930. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0526 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0930, fair value HK$0.3848, a gap of about +314% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0526?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0930); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.3848). For China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited the two are HK$0.2918 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited worth?
The market values China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited at about HK$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0930; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.3848 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0526?
Our models span a range for China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited: cautious scenario HK$0.3468, base HK$0.3848, optimistic HK$0.4418 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.0930). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0526?
China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.3848 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0526 from its 52-week high?
China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited trades at HK$0.0930, about 42% below its 52-week high of HK$0.1590 and 19% above the low of HK$0.0780 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.3848 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.0930, calculated fair value HK$0.3848 (+314%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0526 calculated?
We run China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.3848, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited currently trades 76 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$0.0930. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.3848, about +314% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.3468). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
The market capitalisation of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited is HK$1.1B (≈ $145M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited is 0.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
Earnings per share at China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited are HK$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
The net margin of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited is 5.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
The operating margin of China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
Revenue at China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited is growing −20.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526)?
Earnings per share at China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited are growing +72.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited (0526) hold?
China Automobile New Retail (Holdings) Limited holds more cash than debt, HK$647M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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