Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd HK$1.55, price HK$1.14, upside +36.6%, quality 83 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.5111 – HK$1.18 · fair‑value band HK$1.27 – HK$1.82 · the HK$1.14 price screens below the HK$1.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Tradelink Electronic Commerce Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides government electronic trading services (GETS) for processing official trade-related documents in Hong Kong. It operates through three segments: E-commerce; Identity Management; and Other Services.
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Tradelink Electronic Commerce Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides government electronic trading services (GETS) for processing official trade-related documents in Hong Kong. It operates through three segments: E-commerce; Identity Management; and Other Services. The company's trade compliance solution provides Hong Kong trade compliance documents comprising import and export trade declarations, dutiable commodities permit, certificates of origin, electronic cargo manifests, and road cargo systems; overseas trade compliance documents; paper to electronic conversion services; partnership with CDI; and insurance link services. It also offers intelligent supply chain solutions, including intelligent warehouse management system, transportation management, trader documentation, payment solutions, IoT solutions, and supply chain business consultation services. In addition, it provides identity management solutions, which include biometric authentication, eKYC, facial recognition, digital certificates, trusted signing solution, deepfake detection, TD-sign, intelligent agreement management, super SSL certificates, and customer experience analytics solutions. Further, it provides payment technology solutions, such as one-stop services; value-added applications; and smart products comprising smart PoS, vending machines, cashless payment readers, and self-service kiosks. Additionally, the company offers hotline, technical support, and training services; certificate authority services; electronic messaging routing and transformation services; and e-commerce and e-logistics services. It serves trade and logistics, banking and finance, government and utilities, retail, hospitality, and other industries. Tradelink Electronic Commerce Limited was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Kwai Chung, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536) currently trades at HK$1.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$1.55, implying the stock looks roughly 26.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$1.79 per share, and 18 of the 22 models we run sit above the HK$1.14 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.3200, and 4 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$1.27 (bear) to HK$1.82 (bull), the price of HK$1.14 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 83/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd reported revenue of HK$253M in FY2025 versus HK$274M in FY2021, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was HK$84.0M in FY2025, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$902M (≈ $115M) · P/E ratio 9.9 · P/S ratio 3.29 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0500 · Dividend yield 9.0% · Net margin 33.2% · Return on equity 22.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at 37%, 0536 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$1.27Fair Value HK$1.55Bull HK$1.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.7% vs 0.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 30%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.2% a year for the price.
Compare Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 694 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score83 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+36.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)33.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$1.55 versus a price of HK$1.14, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0536?
Our model-based fair value for Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is HK$1.55 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.14.
What is the quality score of 0536?
Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd has a Quality Score of 83/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$1.55 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$1.27, optimistic scenario HK$1.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$1.55, about +37% upside versus a price of HK$1.14 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$1.27, optimistic scenario HK$1.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$253M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd pay a dividend?
Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -6.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0536 use?
Our models discount Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd that is -6.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd grew -0.7 % a year. The price currently implies -6.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (-6.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.31 %: that much free cash flow Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd it is HK$1.55 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.14. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0536 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.14, fair value HK$1.55, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0536?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$1.55). For Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd the two are HK$0.4150 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd worth?
The market values Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd at about HK$902M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.14; our models calculate a fair value of HK$1.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0536?
Our models span a range for Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd: cautious scenario HK$1.27, base HK$1.55, optimistic HK$1.82 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0536?
Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$1.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 2.4, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 0536?
The PEG ratio of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is 0.75 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 22.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 83/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0536 from its 52-week high?
Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd trades at HK$1.14, about 3% below its 52-week high of HK$1.18 and 20% above the low of HK$0.9454 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$1.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.14, calculated fair value HK$1.55 (+37%), Quality Score 83/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0536 calculated?
We run Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$1.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$1.14. Our model-based fair value is HK$1.55, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (83/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$1.27). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536) come from?
Earnings per share at Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd grew +1.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.3 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
The market capitalisation of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is HK$902M (≈ $115M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is 3.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
Earnings per share at Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd are HK$0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
The dividend yield of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is 9.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
The net margin of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is 33.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is 14.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
The operating margin of Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is 31.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
Revenue at Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd is growing +5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536)?
Earnings per share at Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd are growing +2.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd (0536) hold?
Tradelink Electronic Commerce Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$456M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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