0538 (0538) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · Market cap HK$851M

0 0538 0538 · HK

PriceHK$0.7800

Fair ValueHK$0.6400

Upside-17.9%

Quality63/100

Evidence: High Range HK$0.4800 – HK$0.8000

Fair value as of: Jul 2, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated today

Share price −10.3% over the past month.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range HK$0.7503 – HK$1.01 · fair‑value band HK$0.4800 – HK$0.8000 · the HK$0.7800 price screens above the HK$0.6400 fair value. As of Jul 2, 2026.

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Analysis

0538 (0538) currently trades at HK$0.7800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6400 — implying the stock looks roughly 17.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, 0538 generated revenue of HK$1.8B at a net margin of 1.6%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 2, 2026

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.8B

Revenue growth (YoY) +7.4%

Net margin 1.6%

Return on equity 1.1%

Free cash flow HK$371M FY2025

P/E ratio 26.0

More key figures

Operating margin 3.5%

EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200

Dividend yield 8.9%

EPS growth (YoY) -51.9%

Net cash HK$1.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

0538 reported revenue of HK$1.8B in FY2025 versus HK$2.0B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$27.7M in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue −2.8%/yr

FY21 HK$2.0B

FY22 HK$1.4B

FY23 HK$1.8B

FY24 HK$1.7B

FY25 HK$1.8B

Net income +7.2%/yr

FY21 HK$20.9M

FY22 −HK$144M

FY23 HK$181M

FY24 −HK$20.2M

FY25 HK$27.7M

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Similar stocks

6 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 2, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCD	4,928 MXN	2,845 MXN	-42%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX	C$27.68	C$5.93	-79%
Compass Group CMPGF	$32.63	$24.90	-24%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMGS	C$12.49	C$6.55	-48%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM	$150.74	$59.42	-61%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR	$73.20	$42.90	-41%

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Frequently asked questions

Is 0538 (0538) undervalued?

As of Jul 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.6400 versus a price of HK$0.7800 — about −18% (overvalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.

What is the fair value of 0538?

Our model-based fair value for 0538 is HK$0.6400 (as of Jul 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$0.7800.

What is the quality score of 0538?

0538 has a Quality Score of 63/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

What is the revenue of 0538 (0538)?

0538 reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.8B (latest available figure, as of Jul 2, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 0538?

The net profit margin of 0538 is about 1.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does 0538 pay a dividend?

0538 currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.86% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.