Ajisen (China) Holdings (0538) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$851M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +1.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from HK$0.4900 (bear) to HK$0.8100 (bull), base HK$0.6500. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 64/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4488 – HK$1.15 · fair‑value band HK$0.4900 – HK$0.8100 · the HK$0.8150 price screens above the HK$0.6500 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ajisen (China) Holdings (0538) currently trades at HK$0.8150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.6500, implying the stock looks roughly 20.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ajisen (China) Holdings generated revenue of HK$1.8B at a net margin of 1.6%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.4900 (bear case) to HK$0.8100 (bull case); at HK$0.8150, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -20%, 0538 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$3.98) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.3700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of fast casual restaurants in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. It operates through Operation of Restaurants; Manufacture and Sales of Noodles and Related Products; and Investment Holding segments.
Full company description
Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of fast casual restaurants in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. It operates through Operation of Restaurants; Manufacture and Sales of Noodles and Related Products; and Investment Holding segments. The company's restaurants offer Japanese ramen and Japanese-style dishes under the Ajisen brand name. It also invests in properties; unlisted equity instruments; and fund investments, as well as invests in associates and joint venture. In addition, the company manufactures, trades in, and sells noodles; provides management services; and operates food processing centre and noodle factory, as well as So Pho chain restaurants. Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Yau Tong, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ajisen (China) Holdings reported revenue of HK$1.8B in FY2025 versus HK$2.0B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$27.7M in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −3.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0538 screens 20% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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