Ajisen China Holdings Ltd (0538) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Ajisen China Holdings Ltd HK$0.82, price HK$0.81, upside +1.9%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Ajisen China Holdings Ltd
0538 · HKNeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.4488 – HK$1.15 · fair‑value band HK$0.5400 – HK$1.02 · the HK$0.8050 price screens below the HK$0.8200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Company profile
Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of fast casual restaurants in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. It operates through Operation of Restaurants; Manufacture and Sales of Noodles and Related Products; and Investment Holding segments.
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Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of fast casual restaurants in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. It operates through Operation of Restaurants; Manufacture and Sales of Noodles and Related Products; and Investment Holding segments. The company's restaurants offer Japanese ramen and Japanese-style dishes under the Ajisen brand name. It also invests in properties; unlisted equity instruments; and fund investments, as well as invests in associates and joint venture. In addition, the company manufactures, trades in, and sells noodles; provides management services; and operates food processing centre and noodle factory, as well as So Pho chain restaurants. Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Yau Tong, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Ajisen China Holdings Ltd (0538) currently trades at HK$0.8050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.8200, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$4.54 per share, and 17 of the 25 models we run sit above the HK$0.8050 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.4300, and 8 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$0.5400 (bear) to HK$1.02 (bull), the price of HK$0.8050 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Ajisen China Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 1.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was 27.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding +7.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$879M (≈ $112M) · P/E ratio 26.0 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 · Dividend yield 8.7% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 2%, 0538 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 25 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Compare Ajisen China Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 215 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $233.60 | $162.81 | −30% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $94.86 | $35.83 | −62% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $31.33 | $34.46 | +10% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $138.28 | $76.78 | −44% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | $71.64 | $73.34 | +2% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $199.75 | $175.20 | −12% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $40.47 | $50.76 | +25% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $158.45 | $128.55 | −19% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $292.14 | $233.22 | −20% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $37.89 | $10.27 | −73% |
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