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Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd HK$0.58, price HK$0.23, upside +154.6%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? No
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Real Estate · HK · ISIN BMG8065B1037

Thin data Sep 29, 2026

Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd

0563 · HK

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value HK$0.5830 · Strongly undervalued (+154.6%)

!Quality 34/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −10.4 %/yr)

!Loss-making · -26.2% net margin (TTM)

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

!Trails peers (2/12)

!Narrow moat 11/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear HK$0.4370 to bull HK$0.8700 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 34/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.2210 – HK$0.7078 · fair‑value band HK$0.4370 – HK$0.8700 · the HK$0.2290 price screens below the HK$0.5830 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in residential and commercial properties development, property investment, and hotel operations in the People's Republic of China. It also engages in property management services. In addition, the company leases various commercial and residential properties, such as offices, shopping malls, stores, marts, exhibition halls, car park units, and service/long-term rental apartments. Its real estate projects are located in Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Wuxi, Shenyang, Xi'an, Chongqing, Yantai, Wuhan, and Shenzhen. The company was formerly known as Neo-China Land Group (Holdings) Limited and changed its name to Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Limited in September 2010. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited.

Stock analysis

Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563) currently trades at HK$0.2290, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.5830, implying the stock looks roughly 60.7% undervalued today.

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: HK$0.4370 (bear) to HK$0.8700 (bull), the price of HK$0.2290 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$3.7B in FY2025 versus HK$11.0B in FY2021, a compound −24.0%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$962M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$1.1B (≈ $140M) · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) HK$−0.1000 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −26.2% · Return on equity −5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% · Operating margin 4.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 155%, 0563 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$0.4370 Fair Value HK$0.5830 Bull HK$0.8700

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

NCAV (Graham) HK$1.32 HK$1.77 HK$2.65 54

All 1 models by family

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$1.32 HK$1.77 HK$2.65 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 3

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 23

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 4

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 22

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 100

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 85

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 22

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 3

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 83

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100

Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Revenue growth 1 year

−70.5%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−30.7%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−10.4%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year

Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+17.6%

’14

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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

24.0% (2020) → 1.7% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 576 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +154.6% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on assets 0.1% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) −26.2% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 4.9% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −80.5% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.89× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.04× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 37.9× · Priciest 25%

PEG 4.94× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 70

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0

PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 12

HEALTH (low debt)56 · sector 83

DIVIDEND (yield)1 · sector 55

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016	HK$107.10	HK$155.14	+45%
CK Asset Holdings 1113	HK$46.00	HK$71.49	+55%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78	$8.57	$1.52	−82%
DLF Limited DLF	₹683.00	₹167.48	−75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688	HK$12.42	HK$22.33	+80%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA	₹1,165	₹274.14	−76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048	¥5.56	¥5.87	+6%
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979	¥7.18	¥6.04	−16%
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited 0004	HK$19.39	HK$8.31	−57%
CTP N.V CTPNV	€12.90	€10.46	−19%

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Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.5830 +61%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0563

Frequently asked questions

Is Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.5830 versus a price of HK$0.2290, about +155% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of 0563?

Our model-based fair value for Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is HK$0.5830 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.2290.

What is the quality score of 0563?

Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.5830 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.4370, optimistic scenario HK$0.8700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at HK$0.5830, about +155% upside versus a price of HK$0.2290 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.4370, optimistic scenario HK$0.8700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).

Does Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd pay a dividend?

Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd it is HK$0.5830 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of HK$0.2290. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 29, 2026, 0563 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.2290, fair value HK$0.5830, a gap of about +155% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of 0563?

No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.2290); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.5830). For Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd the two are HK$0.3540 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd worth?

The market values Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd at about HK$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.2290; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.5830 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0563?

Our models span a range for Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.4370, base HK$0.5830, optimistic HK$0.8700 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price HK$0.2290). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the PEG ratio of 0563?

The PEG ratio of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is 4.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

Balance-sheet figures for Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −5.7%, debt of 0.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is 0563 from its 52-week high?

Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd trades at HK$0.2290, about 33% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3400 and 4% above the low of HK$0.2210 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.5830 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd?

From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price HK$0.2290, calculated fair value HK$0.5830 (+155%), Quality Score 34/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of 0563 calculated?

We run Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.5830, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$0.2290. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.5830, about +155% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd right now?

The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$0.4370). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (HK$0.4370 to HK$0.8700) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

The market capitalisation of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is HK$1.1B (≈ $140M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is 0.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

Earnings per share at Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd are HK$−0.1000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

The dividend yield of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

The net margin of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is −26.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

The operating margin of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

Revenue at Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is growing −80.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −30.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563)?

Earnings per share at Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd are growing +185% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563) generate?

The free cash flow of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is −HK$666M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd (0563) carry?

The net debt of Shanghai Industrial Urban Development Group Ltd is HK$14.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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