Tao Heung Holdings (0573) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$274M
Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −3.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from HK$0.1661 (bear) to HK$0.2895 (bull), base HK$0.2278. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 52/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.2500 – HK$0.8470 · fair‑value band HK$0.1661 – HK$0.2895 · the HK$0.2600 price screens above the HK$0.2278 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
Analysis
Tao Heung Holdings (0573) currently trades at HK$0.2600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.2278, implying the stock looks roughly 12.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tao Heung Holdings generated revenue of HK$2.3B at a net margin of -2.6%. Revenue grew 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.2%. Net debt stands at HK$227M. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$0.1661 (bear case) to HK$0.2895 (bull case); at HK$0.2600, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -12%, 0573 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$2.83) versus Asset-Based (HK$0.7200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tao Heung Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of restaurants and bakeries in Hong Kong, and Chinese mainland. The company engages in the provision of food catering services; and production, sale, and distribution of food products and other items related to restaurant operations; and provision of poultry farm operations.
Full company description
Tao Heung Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates a chain of restaurants and bakeries in Hong Kong, and Chinese mainland. The company engages in the provision of food catering services; and production, sale, and distribution of food products and other items related to restaurant operations; and provision of poultry farm operations. It also slaughters, processes, and sells livestock; produces and retails bakery products; and provides management and promotion. In addition, the company engages in the property investment activities. It operates restaurants under Tao Heung, Tao Heung Tea House, Pier 88, Tao Square, Boat One, Hak Ka Hut, HAKKA Bistro, Chao Inn, Chung's House, Chung's Cuisine/Chung's Kitchen, Cheers Palace, Grand Ballroom, and Tai Cheong Bakery brands. Tao Heung Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is based in Tai Po, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tao Heung Holdings reported revenue of HK$2.3B in FY2025 versus HK$2.8B in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$59.9M in FY2025.
0573 screens 12% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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