Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd HK$0.05, price HK$0.04, upside +18.3%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0360 – HK$20.73 · fair‑value band HK$0.0291 – HK$0.0753 · the HK$0.0420 price screens below the HK$0.0497 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Shimao Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment business in the People's Republic of China. The company develops and invests residential and commercial properties; and operates hotels and shopping malls, as well as provides rental rooms, food and beverage sales, and other ancillary services.
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Shimao Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment business in the People's Republic of China. The company develops and invests residential and commercial properties; and operates hotels and shopping malls, as well as provides rental rooms, food and beverage sales, and other ancillary services. It is involved in the trading of construction materials, and property management activities. The company was formerly known as Shimao Property Holdings Limited and changed its name to Shimao Group Holdings Limited in May 2020. Shimao Group Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong. Shimao Group Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Gemfair Investments Limited.
Stock analysis
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) currently trades at HK$0.0420, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0497, implying the stock looks roughly 15.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 14 models at a data quality of 89/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0291 (bear) to HK$0.0753 (bull), the price of HK$0.0420 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 27.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 108B CNY in FY2021, a compound −28.8%/yr. Reported net income was 14.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$711M (≈ $90.6M) · P/E ratio 0.0 · P/S ratio 0.02 · EPS (TTM) HK$−2.36 · Net margin 50.9% · Return on equity 56.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.5% · Operating margin 264%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 89% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 18%, 0813 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$0.0291Fair Value HK$0.0497Bull HK$0.0753
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−53.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.4% vs 1.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → −143%
Compare Shimao Property Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+18.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets4.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)50.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−55.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.4× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA1.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.22× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)58· sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 56
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0497 versus a price of HK$0.0420, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0813?
Our model-based fair value for Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is HK$0.0497 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0420.
What is the quality score of 0813?
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0497 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0291, optimistic scenario HK$0.0753. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shimao Property Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0497, about +18% upside versus a price of HK$0.0420 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0291, optimistic scenario HK$0.0753. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 28.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shimao Property Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.0497 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0420. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shimao Property Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 0813 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0420, fair value HK$0.0497, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0813?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0420); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0497). For Shimao Property Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0077 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shimao Property Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Shimao Property Holdings Ltd at about HK$711M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0420; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0497 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0813?
Our models span a range for Shimao Property Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0291, base HK$0.0497, optimistic HK$0.0753 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$0.0420). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0813?
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$0.0497 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/S 0.0, EV/EBITDA 1.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 0813?
The PEG ratio of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 0.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0813 from its 52-week high?
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.0420, about 89% below its 52-week high of HK$0.3750 and 17% above the low of HK$0.0360 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0497 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shimao Property Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shimao Property Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$0.0420, calculated fair value HK$0.0497 (+18%), Quality Score 37/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0813 calculated?
We run Shimao Property Holdings Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$0.0497, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Shimao Property Holdings Ltd currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$0.0420. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0497, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shimao Property Holdings Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$0.0291 to HK$0.0753) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The market capitalisation of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is HK$711M (≈ $90.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 0.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Earnings per share at Shimao Property Holdings Ltd are HK$−2.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The net margin of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 50.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 56.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is −4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The operating margin of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 264% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Revenue at Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is growing −55.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Earnings per share at Shimao Property Holdings Ltd are growing +16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) generate?
The free cash flow of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 1.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) carry?
The net debt of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 170B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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