Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd stock HK$0.05, price HK$0.04, upside +28.7%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.0360 – HK$17.75 · fair‑value band HK$0.0285 – HK$0.0770 · the HK$0.0380 price screens below the HK$0.0489 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 13, 2026.
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Shimao Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property development and investment business in the People's Republic of China.
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The company develops and invests residential and commercial properties; and operates hotels and shopping malls, as well as provides rental rooms, food and beverage sales, and other ancillary services. It is involved in the trading of construction materials, and property management activities.
The company was formerly known as Shimao Property Holdings Limited and changed its name to Shimao Group Holdings Limited in May 2020. Shimao Group Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Shimao Group Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Gemfair Investments Limited.
Stock analysis
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) currently trades at HK$0.0380, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.0489, implying the stock looks roughly 22% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: HK$0.0285 (bear) to HK$0.0770 (bull), the price of HK$0.0380 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 27.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 108B CNY in FY2021, a compound −28.8%/yr. Reported net income was 14.1B CNY in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 86% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at 29%, 0813 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$0.0285Fair Value HK$0.0489BullHK$0.0770
Price HK$0.0380 · Upside +28.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFHK$0.9700HK$3.24HK$6.3873
Growth DCFHK$0.9400HK$2.99HK$5.6972
5Y Revenue Exitn/an/aHK$0.480068
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFHK$0.9700HK$3.24HK$6.3873
5Y Revenue Exitn/an/aHK$0.480068
10Y Revenue Exitn/aHK$0.5700HK$1.6963
Multiples
P/S MultipleHK$8.95HK$11.93HK$14.9157
Growth DCF
Growth DCFHK$0.9400HK$2.99HK$5.6972
Rev-Margin DCFn/an/aHK$0.690068
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.4% vs 1.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → −143%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 491 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+28.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets6.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)119.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−25.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−26.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.0489 versus a price of HK$0.0380, about +29% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0813?
Our model-based fair value for Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is HK$0.0489 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$0.0380.
What is the quality score of 0813?
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$0.0489 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$0.0285, optimistic scenario HK$0.0770. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shimao Property Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$0.0489, about +29% upside versus a price of HK$0.0380 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$0.0285, optimistic scenario HK$0.0770. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 24.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shimao Property Holdings Ltd it is HK$0.0489 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of HK$0.0380. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is Shimao Property Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, 0813 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$0.0380, fair value HK$0.0489, a gap of about +29% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0813?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$0.0380); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$0.0489). For Shimao Property Holdings Ltd the two are HK$0.0109 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shimao Property Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Shimao Property Holdings Ltd at about HK$394M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is HK$0.0380; our models calculate a fair value of HK$0.0489 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0813?
Our models span a range for Shimao Property Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$0.0285, base HK$0.0489, optimistic HK$0.0770 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price HK$0.0380). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 0813?
The PEG ratio of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 0.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 13, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 13, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0813 from its 52-week high?
Shimao Property Holdings Ltd trades at HK$0.0380, about 86% below its 52-week high of HK$0.2800 and 6% above the low of HK$0.0360 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$0.0489 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shimao Property Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shimao Property Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price HK$0.0380, calculated fair value HK$0.0489 (+29%), Quality Score 34/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0813 calculated?
We run Shimao Property Holdings Ltd through 6 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$0.0489 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Shimao Property Holdings Ltd currently trades 22% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$0.0380. Our model-based fair value is HK$0.0489, about +29% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shimao Property Holdings Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$0.0285 to HK$0.0770). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The market capitalisation of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is HK$394M (≈ $50.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The net margin of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 50.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 56.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is −4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
The operating margin of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is −25.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Revenue at Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is down 26.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813)?
Earnings per share at Shimao Property Holdings Ltd are growing 16.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) generate?
The free cash flow of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 1.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shimao Property Holdings Ltd (0813) carry?
The net debt of Shimao Property Holdings Ltd is 170B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Why does Shimao Property Holdings Ltd meet the fair value rule although the fair value shown is lower?
Dilution deducted: HK$0.0575 → HK$0.0489. The share count grew strongly in the last fiscal year, so each share is a smaller slice. We deduct for that: HK$0.0489 instead of HK$0.0575. As in the backtest, the fair value rule checks the value before: +51% against the price.
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Nov 13, 2026