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Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A €8.67, price €17.00, upside -49.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · GB · Home Portugal · ISIN PTJMT0AE0001

JM Thin data Oct 3, 2026

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A

0EXG · LSE

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €8.67 · Strongly overvalued (−49.0%)
✓Quality 63/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +5.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
·3.8% dividend yield · Safety not assessed
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€24.56 €13.98 Fair Value €8.67 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €13.98 – €24.56 · fair‑value band €6.50 – €10.83 · the €17.00 price screens above the €8.67 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates in the food distribution sector in Portugal, Poland, Colombia, Slovakia, and internationally. The company operates through Portugal Retail, Portugal Cash & Carry, Poland Retail, Poland Health and Beauty, and Colombia Retail segments.

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Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates in the food distribution sector in Portugal, Poland, Colombia, Slovakia, and internationally. The company operates through Portugal Retail, Portugal Cash & Carry, Poland Retail, Poland Health and Beauty, and Colombia Retail segments. It engages in the operation of chain of food stores under the Biedronka brand; online sales offerings, such as deliveries under the Biek brand, alternative ordering and delivery solutions with e-commerce players, and non-food products through a website; supermarket chains under the Pingo Doce brand; cash and carry stores under the Recheio brand; Bem-Estar parapharmacies and petrol stations; and coffee shops and kiosks under the Jeronymo brand. The company is also involved in the provision of specialized retail of health and beauty products, as well as in-store consultation services under the Hebe brand; operation of a chain of proximity food stores under the Ara brand; and production of dairy, livestock farming, aquaculture, and fruit and vegetables. In addition, it engages in the real estate purchase and sale; sea passenger water transport; renting of air transport equipment; growing of crops and animal farming; saline brackish waters aquaculture; and retail management, consultancy, and logistics. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal. Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Sociedade Francisco Manuel Dos Santos B.V.

Stock analysis

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG) currently trades at €17.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €8.67, 49.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €24.66 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the €17.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.79, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €6.50 (bear) to €10.83 (bull), the price of €17.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A reported revenue of €19.3B in FY2020 versus €14.6B in FY2016, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was €312M in FY2020, compounding −14.8%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap €12.8B · P/S ratio 0.35 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 18.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0% · Operating margin 3.1% · Revenue (TTM) €36.5B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −49%, 0EXG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €6.50 Fair Value €8.67 Bull €10.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €27.25 €41.51 €63.10 76
Growth DCF €27.74 €40.45 €58.55 75
EPV €6.88 €7.88 €8.75 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €27.25 €41.51 €63.10 76
5Y Revenue Exit €14.92 €20.09 €26.29 70
5Y EBITDA Exit €20.45 €30.37 €41.67 72
5Y P/E Exit €13.91 €18.21 €22.48 69
10Y Revenue Exit €18.93 €24.66 €31.70 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €22.68 €31.77 €43.36 66
10Y P/E Exit €18.52 €23.36 €28.81 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €2.83 €8.51 €11.29 62
Lynch FV €1.81 €2.59 €3.36 58
PEG = 1.0 €1.81 €2.59 €3.36 55
EPV €6.88 €7.88 €8.75 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €2.21 €4.60 €7.30 63
DDM Multi-Stage €2.21 €3.61 €4.83 63
Multiples
P/E Multiple €6.55 €8.73 €10.92 63
P/S Multiple €5.30 €7.07 €8.84 58
P/B Multiple €5.30 €7.07 €8.84 55
EV/EBIT €11.76 €15.38 €18.99 66
EV/EBITDA €18.79 €24.75 €30.72 67
EV/Revenue €8.65 €11.97 €15.29 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.34 €1.79 €2.68 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €27.74 €40.45 €58.55 75
Rev-Margin DCF €14.92 €20.46 €26.93 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.75 €3.46 €4.94 72
ROIC Compounder €7.22 €8.70 €10.30 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €5.35 €7.65 €9.94 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.2% (2016) → 3.3% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0EXG screens overvalued: fair value 49% below the price. Compare with Sysco Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 81 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −58.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 18.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.18× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/B 7.38× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.41× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.7× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sysco Corporation SYY $78.57 $70.95 −10%
US Foods Holding USFD $93.33 $60.25 −35%
Performance Food Group PFGC $91.55 $47.10 −49%
CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT 14.50 THB 12.98 THB −10%
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF $110.27 $41.87 −62%
Olam Group VC2 0.9650 SGD 2.47 SGD +156%
United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI $44.79 $34.58 −23%
The Andersons, Inc ANDE $65.70 $32.38 −51%
Metcash Limited MTS A$2.86 A$5.33 +86%
Dong Suh Companies Inc 026960 25,350 KRW 9,979 KRW −61%

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Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A · Fair Value
€8.67 −49%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0EXG

Frequently asked questions

Is Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €8.67 versus a price of €17.00, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0EXG?
Our model-based fair value for Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is €8.67 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €17.00.
What is the quality score of 0EXG?
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €8.67 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.50, optimistic scenario €10.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €8.67, about −49% upside versus a price of €17.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €6.50, optimistic scenario €10.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €36.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A pay a dividend?
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A it is €8.67 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €17.00. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 0EXG trades above its calculated fair value: price €17.00, fair value €8.67, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0EXG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€17.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€8.67). For Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A the two are €8.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A worth?
The market values Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A at about €12.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €17.00; our models calculate a fair value of €8.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0EXG?
Our models span a range for Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A: cautious scenario €6.50, base €8.67, optimistic €10.83 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €17.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 18.6%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0EXG from its 52-week high?
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A trades at €17.00, about 21% below its 52-week high of €21.65 and 5% above the low of €16.16 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €8.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, CP Axtra Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €17.00, calculated fair value €8.67 (−49%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0EXG calculated?
We run Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €8.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €17.00. Our model-based fair value is €8.67, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€10.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
The market capitalisation of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is €12.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is 0.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
The dividend yield of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is 3.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
The net margin of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is 1.6% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
The operating margin of Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
Revenue at Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A (0EXG)?
Earnings per share at Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A are growing −6.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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