United Natural Foods, Inc (UNFI) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $2.9B

A solid business, but screening 87% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($6.00 to $21.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.82 – $55.61 · fair‑value band $6.00 – $21.57 · the $47.06 price screens above the $6.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

United Natural Foods, Inc (UNFI) currently trades at $47.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.00, implying the stock looks roughly 87.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, United Natural Foods, Inc generated revenue of $31.5B at a net margin of -0.3%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.9%. Net debt stands at $3.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.00 (bear case) to $21.57 (bull case); at $47.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -87%, UNFI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($57.77) versus Dividend Discount ($3.00). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

United Natural Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural, organic, specialty, produce, and conventional grocery and non-food products in the United States and Canada. It operates in three segments: Natural, Wholesale, and Retail.

Full company description

United Natural Foods, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of natural, organic, specialty, produce, and conventional grocery and non-food products in the United States and Canada. It operates in three segments: Natural, Wholesale, and Retail. The company distributes grocery and general merchandise, perishables, frozen food, wellness and personal care items, bulk and foodservice, home, health and beauty care, pharmacy, pet food, produce, meat, dairy, and organic/non-GMO products under the ESSENTIAL EVERYDAY, SHOPPERS VALUE, WILD HARVEST, Field Day, STONE RIDGE CREAMERY, EQUALINE, CULINARY CIRCLE, and WOODSTOCK brands. It also engages in the manufacture of natural and organic snack food; importing, roasting, packaging, and distributing of nuts, dried fruit, seeds, trail mixes, granola, natural and organic snack items, and confections under the Woodstock Farms Manufacturing brand; and operation of grocery and liquor stores under the Cub Foods and Shoppers brands. In addition, the company provides shelf and planogram management, retail store support, pricing strategy, shelf tags, electronic payments and coupon processing, store layout and design, equipment sourcing and procurement, point-of-sale hardware and software, network and data hosting solutions, consumer convenience services, automation tools, sustainability services, and administrative back-office solutions; consumer and trade marketing programs; and programs to support suppliers in understanding its markets. Further, it offers web and digital marketing services, such as websites, digital coupon and loyalty programs, mobile applications, e-commerce, and circular programs; and various supply chain, digital, and professional services. It serves grocery chains, retailers, and wholesale customers. United Natural Foods, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

United Natural Foods, Inc reported revenue of $31.8B in FY2025 versus $27.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$118M in FY2025.

UNFI screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →

Peer Group

Food Distribution · 77 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.