Metcash Limited (MTS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$3.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from A$5.41 to A$5.33 (−1.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +6.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 69% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$3.47). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (A$3.47 to A$6.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.57 – A$4.00 · fair‑value band A$3.47 – A$6.66 · the A$3.16 price screens below the A$5.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Metcash Limited (MTS) currently trades at A$3.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$5.33, implying the stock looks roughly 68.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Metcash Limited generated revenue of A$17.3B at a net margin of 1.6%. Revenue grew 0.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.5%. Net debt stands at A$1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.47 (bear case) to A$6.66 (bull case); at A$3.16, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at 69%, MTS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$5.20) versus Asset-Based (A$1.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when MTS reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia. It operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. The Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket, convenience retail outlets, and food service customers.
Full company description
Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale distribution and marketing company in Australia. It operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. The Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket, convenience retail outlets, and food service customers. The Liquor segment engages in the distribution of liquor products to independent retail outlets and hotels. The Hardware segment distributes hardware products to independent retail outlets; and operates company owned retail stores. It sells its products under the IGA, Foodland, Mitre 10, Home Hardware, Total Tools, Cellarbrations, IGA Liquor, and the Bottle-O brand names. Metcash Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Macquarie Park, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Metcash Limited reported revenue of A$17.4B in FY2026 versus A$15.2B in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$279M in FY2026, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +2.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch MTS: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $81.69 | $60.58 | -26% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $99.13 | $55.10 | -44% |
| Performance Food Group PFGC | $113.17 | $37.94 | -66% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €17.68 | €21.59 | +22% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.90 THB | 17.04 THB | +14% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $95.79 | $37.27 | -61% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.33 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +59% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $50.19 | $6.00 | -88% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $79.24 | $47.78 | -40% |
| Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 | ¥31.11 | ¥6.75 | -78% |
Compare Metcash Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Metcash Limited (MTS) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of MTS?
What is the quality score of MTS?
What is the revenue of Metcash Limited (MTS)?
What is the net profit margin of MTS?
Does Metcash Limited pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Metcash Limited and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.