The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc (CHEF) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $3.9B

Below-average quality, and screening another 66% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($46.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($13.68 to $46.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.83 – $115.35 · fair‑value band $13.68 – $46.58 · the $110.20 price screens above the $37.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc (CHEF) currently trades at $110.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.27, implying the stock looks roughly 66.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc generated revenue of $4.3B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 11.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $13.68 (bear case) to $46.58 (bull case); at $110.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -66%, CHEF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($45.06) versus Dividend Discount ($0.7900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes specialty food and center-of-the-plate products in the United States, the Middle East, and Canada.

Full company description

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes specialty food and center-of-the-plate products in the United States, the Middle East, and Canada. It offers specialty food products, such as artisan charcuterie, specialty cheeses, unique oils and vinegars, truffles, caviar, chocolate, and pastry products and center-of-the-plate products that includes custom cut beef, seafood, and hormone-free poultry, as well as produce and broadline food products comprising cooking oils, butter, eggs, milk, and flour. The company serves menu-driven independent restaurants, fine dining establishments, country clubs, hotels, caterers, culinary schools, bakeries, patisseries, chocolatiers, cruise lines, casinos, and specialty food stores. It markets its center-of-the-plate products directly to consumers through a mail and e-commerce platform. The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Ridgefield, Connecticut.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +24.2%/yr. Reported net income was $72.4M in FY2025.

CHEF screens 66% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →

Peer Group

Food Distribution · 77 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.