CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of CP Axtra Public Company Limited THB 12.98, price THB 14.50, upside -10.5%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
24‑month range 13.53 THB – 33.26 THB · fair‑value band 5.91 THB – 22.12 THB · the 14.50 THB price screens above the 12.98 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CP Axtra Public Company Limited engages in the wholesale and retail businesses of food and non-food products in Thailand, Malaysia, and internationally. The company operates through the Wholesale and the Retail and Mall segments.
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CP Axtra Public Company Limited engages in the wholesale and retail businesses of food and non-food products in Thailand, Malaysia, and internationally. The company operates through the Wholesale and the Retail and Mall segments. It offers general consumer goods, including fresh food, dry goods, and non-food products under the Makro brand name through its online platform and wholesale stores. The company is also involved in the import and trade of food products; warehouse management; investment in commercial space management; production of raw and cooked protein products, dairy products, and other food related products; building rental and integrated logistics services; and operation of restaurants. In addition, it provides freight, delivery rental, and storage services, as well as technical and supporting services. The company was formerly known as Siam Makro Public Company Limited and changed its name to CP Axtra Public Company Limited in June 2023. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) currently trades at 14.50 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 12.98 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 11.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 19.24 THB per share, and 14 of the 25 models we run sit above the 14.50 THB price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 7.12 THB, and 11 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 5.91 THB (bear) to 22.12 THB (bull), the price of 14.50 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CP Axtra Public Company Limited reported revenue of 518B THB in FY2025 versus 265B THB in FY2021, a compound +18.2%/yr. Reported net income was 9.4B THB in FY2025, compounding −8.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 151B THB (≈ $4.5B) · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) 0.8973 THB · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −10%, CPAXT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 5.91 THBFair Value 12.98 THBBull 22.12 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1390 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.51/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 3%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.3% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
Compare CP Axtra Public Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−11% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CP Axtra Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPAXT
Frequently asked questions
Is CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 12.98 THB versus a price of 14.50 THB, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CPAXT?
Our model-based fair value for CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 12.98 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.50 THB.
What is the quality score of CPAXT?
CP Axtra Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 12.98 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.91 THB, optimistic scenario 22.12 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CP Axtra Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 12.98 THB, about −10% upside versus a price of 14.50 THB (overvalued). Cautious scenario 5.91 THB, optimistic scenario 22.12 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
CP Axtra Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 524B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CP Axtra Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
CP Axtra Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CP Axtra Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +27.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +18.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPAXT use?
Our models discount CP Axtra Public Company Limited at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CP Axtra Public Company Limited that is +27.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at CP Axtra Public Company Limited grew +18.2 % a year. The price currently implies +27.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CP Axtra Public Company Limited (+27.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.36 %: that much free cash flow CP Axtra Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CP Axtra Public Company Limited it is 12.98 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 14.50 THB. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CP Axtra Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CPAXT trades above its calculated fair value: price 14.50 THB, fair value 12.98 THB, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPAXT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14.50 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (12.98 THB). For CP Axtra Public Company Limited the two are 1.52 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CP Axtra Public Company Limited worth?
The market values CP Axtra Public Company Limited at about 151B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 14.50 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 12.98 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPAXT?
Our models span a range for CP Axtra Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 5.91 THB, base 12.98 THB, optimistic 22.12 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 14.50 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CPAXT?
CP Axtra Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 12.98 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 0.5, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 7.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CPAXT?
The PEG ratio of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 1.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
Balance-sheet figures for CP Axtra Public Company Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPAXT from its 52-week high?
CP Axtra Public Company Limited trades at 14.50 THB, about 35% below its 52-week high of 22.22 THB and 7% above the low of 13.53 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 12.98 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CP Axtra Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CP Axtra Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 14.50 THB, calculated fair value 12.98 THB (−10%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPAXT calculated?
We run CP Axtra Public Company Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 12.98 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. CP Axtra Public Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 14.50 THB. Our model-based fair value is 12.98 THB, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CP Axtra Public Company Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide (5.91 THB to 22.12 THB). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of CP Axtra Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
The market capitalisation of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 151B THB (≈ $4.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
Earnings per share at CP Axtra Public Company Limited are 0.8973 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
The dividend yield of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 4.9% (payout 79.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
The net margin of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 1.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
The operating margin of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
Revenue at CP Axtra Public Company Limited is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT)?
Earnings per share at CP Axtra Public Company Limited are growing +5.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CP Axtra Public Company Limited (CPAXT) carry?
The net debt of CP Axtra Public Company Limited is 98.3B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 19.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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