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Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ponsse Oyj €16.05, price €22.10, upside -27.4%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Ponsse Oyj
0FNZ · LSEOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value €16.05 · Overvalued (−27.4%)
!Quality 59/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +3.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!2.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €17.72 – €43.00 · fair‑value band €8.76 – €25.72 · the €22.10 price screens above the €16.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Ponsse Oyj operates as manufacturer of cut-to-length forest machines in Nordic and Baltic countries, Central and Southern Europe, South America and North America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company offers harvesters, forwarders, harvester heads, and simulators.
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Ponsse Oyj operates as manufacturer of cut-to-length forest machines in Nordic and Baltic countries, Central and Southern Europe, South America and North America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company offers harvesters, forwarders, harvester heads, and simulators. It also provides information system products, including Opti 5G information system for harvesters; Opti 4G forwarder systems; and systems for track-based forest machines. In addition, it provides tailored solutions, such as firefighting equipment; traction assistance winch; active cabin, seat, crane, frame, and speed; long bogie; armrests and earmrests; harvester head rotators; scale crane system; and greasing systems, as well as high precision and digital solutions. Further, the company offers spare parts services; and used machines. Ponsse Oyj was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Vieremä, Finland.
Stock analysis
Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ) currently trades at €22.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €16.05, 27.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €20.99 per share, and 6 of the 23 models we run sit above the €22.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €8.10, and 17 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €8.76 (bear) to €25.72 (bull), the price of €22.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ponsse Oyj reported revenue of €750M in FY2025 versus €608M in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was €30.5M in FY2025, compounding −13.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €618M · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) €2.06 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% · Operating margin 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −27%, 0FNZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €8.76
Fair Value €16.05
Bull €25.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.14 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
€1.03
€1.26
€1.57
82
Growth DCF
€1.03
€1.23
€1.47
80
Owner Earnings
€15.63
€22.99
€33.09
76
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
€1.03
€1.26
€1.57
82
Owner Earnings
€15.63
€22.99
€33.09
76
5Y Revenue Exit
€8.58
€15.70
€25.14
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
€15.19
€28.31
€44.12
73
5Y P/E Exit
€10.01
€18.43
€27.54
69
10Y Revenue Exit
€5.11
€10.48
€18.25
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
€9.35
€18.56
€31.72
66
10Y P/E Exit
€6.30
€12.23
€19.95
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
€7.41
€25.41
€34.11
64
Lynch FV
€5.85
€8.36
€10.87
61
PEG = 1.0
€5.85
€8.36
€10.87
57
EPV
€9.76
€11.02
€12.06
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
€17.17
€22.89
€28.62
63
P/S Multiple
€13.90
€18.53
€23.17
58
P/B Multiple
€13.90
€18.53
€23.17
55
EV/EBIT
€19.55
€25.88
€32.21
66
EV/EBITDA
€27.36
€36.29
€45.22
67
EV/Revenue
€14.12
€19.93
€25.73
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
€6.05
€8.10
€12.09
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
€1.03
€1.23
€1.47
80
Economic Profit
Residual Income
€9.79
€10.37
€11.67
76
ROIC Compounder
€9.76
€11.02
€12.06
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
€14.70
€20.99
€27.29
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
59/100
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Profitability
50
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
39/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.1% vs −3.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
0FNZ screens overvalued: fair value 27% below the price. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 145 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $810.79 | $308.45 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $671.55 | $258.17 | −62% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $109.81 | $120.79 | +10% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €42.54 | €50.36 | +18% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥17.20 | ¥20.84 | +21% |
| CNH Industrial N.V CNH | $13.06 | $8.65 | −34% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €34.04 | €32.82 | −4% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €17.08 | €18.79 | +10% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥7.17 | ¥14.52 | +103% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$35.30 | HK$56.32 | +60% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €16.05 versus a price of €22.10, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0FNZ?
Our model-based fair value for Ponsse Oyj is €16.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €22.10.
What is the quality score of 0FNZ?
Ponsse Oyj has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €16.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario €8.76, optimistic scenario €25.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ponsse Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €16.05, about −27% upside versus a price of €22.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €8.76, optimistic scenario €25.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
Ponsse Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €731M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ponsse Oyj pay a dividend?
Ponsse Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ponsse Oyj it is €16.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €22.10. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ponsse Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0FNZ trades above its calculated fair value: price €22.10, fair value €16.05, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0FNZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€22.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€16.05). For Ponsse Oyj the two are €6.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ponsse Oyj worth?
The market values Ponsse Oyj at about €618M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €22.10; our models calculate a fair value of €16.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0FNZ?
Our models span a range for Ponsse Oyj: cautious scenario €8.76, base €16.05, optimistic €25.72 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €22.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0FNZ?
Ponsse Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €16.05 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ponsse Oyj (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0FNZ from its 52-week high?
Ponsse Oyj trades at €22.10, about 21% below its 52-week high of €27.84 and 1% above the low of €21.79 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €16.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ponsse Oyj?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ponsse Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €22.10, calculated fair value €16.05 (−27%), Quality Score 59/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0FNZ calculated?
We run Ponsse Oyj through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €16.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ponsse Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €22.10. Our model-based fair value is €16.05, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ponsse Oyj right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€8.76 to €25.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ) come from?
Earnings per share at Ponsse Oyj grew −5.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin −8.4 %, tax rate −1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ponsse Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
The market capitalisation of Ponsse Oyj is €618M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
Earnings per share at Ponsse Oyj are €2.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
The dividend yield of Ponsse Oyj is 2.5% (payout 26.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
The net margin of Ponsse Oyj is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ponsse Oyj is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ponsse Oyj is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
The operating margin of Ponsse Oyj is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
Revenue at Ponsse Oyj is growing −10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ)?
Earnings per share at Ponsse Oyj are growing −82.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ) generate?
The free cash flow of Ponsse Oyj is €598K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ponsse Oyj (0FNZ) carry?
The net debt of Ponsse Oyj is €20.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 34.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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