Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alaska Air Group Inc. $16.40, price $39.42, upside -58.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.02 – $77.76 · fair‑value band $12.77 – $21.29 · the $39.42 price screens above the $16.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional.
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Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo in the United States, and in parts of Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, Guatemala, and the Bahamas; and for passengers across a shorter distance network within the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Stock analysis
Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3) currently trades at $39.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.40, 58.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $22.38 per share, and 3 of the 14 models we run sit above the $39.42 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.58, and 11 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.77 (bear) to $21.29 (bull), the price of $39.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Alaska Air Group Inc. reported revenue of $14.2B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was $100M in FY2025, compounding −32.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.7B · P/E ratio 0.1 · EPS (TTM) $3.65 · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity −4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin −3.1% · Revenue (TTM) $14.8B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −58%, 0HC3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.77Fair Value $16.40Bull $21.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−12.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30.0% vs −18.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−47% → 4%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside−58.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−3.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)0.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.15× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.32× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA9.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 52
FUTURE (revenue growth)49· sector 70
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alaska Air Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0HC3
Frequently asked questions
Is Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.40 versus a price of $39.42, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0HC3?
Our model-based fair value for Alaska Air Group Inc. is $16.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.42.
What is the quality score of 0HC3?
Alaska Air Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.40 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.77, optimistic scenario $21.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alaska Air Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.40, about −58% upside versus a price of $39.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.77, optimistic scenario $21.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
Alaska Air Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alaska Air Group Inc. it is $16.40 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $39.42. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alaska Air Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HC3 trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.42, fair value $16.40, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HC3?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.40). For Alaska Air Group Inc. the two are $23.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alaska Air Group Inc. worth?
The market values Alaska Air Group Inc. at about $4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $39.42; our models calculate a fair value of $16.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HC3?
Our models span a range for Alaska Air Group Inc.: cautious scenario $12.77, base $16.40, optimistic $21.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $39.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0HC3?
Alaska Air Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alaska Air Group Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.6%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0HC3 from its 52-week high?
Alaska Air Group Inc. trades at $39.42, about 34% below its 52-week high of $60.12 and 16% above the low of $33.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alaska Air Group Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alaska Air Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $39.42, calculated fair value $16.40 (−58%), Quality Score 48/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HC3 calculated?
We run Alaska Air Group Inc. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alaska Air Group Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $39.42. Our model-based fair value is $16.40, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alaska Air Group Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3) come from?
Earnings per share at Alaska Air Group Inc. grew −11.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin −14.9 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alaska Air Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
The market capitalisation of Alaska Air Group Inc. is $4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
Earnings per share at Alaska Air Group Inc. are $3.65 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
The net margin of Alaska Air Group Inc. is 0.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alaska Air Group Inc. is −4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alaska Air Group Inc. is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
The operating margin of Alaska Air Group Inc. is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
Revenue at Alaska Air Group Inc. is growing +9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3)?
Earnings per share at Alaska Air Group Inc. are growing −68.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3) generate?
The free cash flow of Alaska Air Group Inc. is −$339M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alaska Air Group Inc. (0HC3) carry?
The net debt of Alaska Air Group Inc. is $7.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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