American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of American Airlines Group Inc. $5.06, price $13.10, upside -61.4%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.22 – $24.31 · fair‑value band $3.07 – $6.33 · the $13.10 price screens above the $5.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific.
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American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. It also operates a mainline fleet of 1,013 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Stock analysis
American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6) currently trades at $13.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.06, 61.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $5.06 per share, and 1 of the 7 models we run sit above the $13.10 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.42, and 6 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $3.07 (bear) to $6.33 (bull), the price of $13.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
American Airlines Group Inc. reported revenue of $54.6B in FY2025 versus $29.9B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $111M in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −61%, 0HE6 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.07Fair Value $5.06Bull $6.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−46.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−46.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−46.4% vs −28.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−60% → 3%
Compare American Airlines Group Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−61.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−0.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.16× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)54· sector 73
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 49
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American Airlines Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0HE6
Frequently asked questions
Is American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.06 versus a price of $13.10, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0HE6?
Our model-based fair value for American Airlines Group Inc. is $5.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.10.
What is the quality score of 0HE6?
American Airlines Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.06 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.07, optimistic scenario $6.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Airlines Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.06, about −61% upside versus a price of $13.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.07, optimistic scenario $6.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
American Airlines Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $56.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Airlines Group Inc. it is $5.06 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $13.10. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Airlines Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 0HE6 trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.10, fair value $5.06, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0HE6?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.06). For American Airlines Group Inc. the two are $8.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Airlines Group Inc. worth?
The market values American Airlines Group Inc. at about $8.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $13.10; our models calculate a fair value of $5.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0HE6?
Our models span a range for American Airlines Group Inc.: cautious scenario $3.07, base $5.06, optimistic $6.33 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $13.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Airlines Group Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0HE6 from its 52-week high?
American Airlines Group Inc. trades at $13.10, about 29% below its 52-week high of $18.35 and 30% above the low of $10.09 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Airlines Group Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Airlines Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $13.10, calculated fair value $5.06 (−61%), Quality Score 43/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0HE6 calculated?
We run American Airlines Group Inc. through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. American Airlines Group Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $13.10. Our model-based fair value is $5.06, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Airlines Group Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.07 to $6.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of American Airlines Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
The market capitalisation of American Airlines Group Inc. is $8.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
Earnings per share at American Airlines Group Inc. are $−3.67. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
The net margin of American Airlines Group Inc. is 0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Airlines Group Inc. is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
The operating margin of American Airlines Group Inc. is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
Revenue at American Airlines Group Inc. is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6)?
Earnings per share at American Airlines Group Inc. are growing −83.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6) generate?
The free cash flow of American Airlines Group Inc. is −$680M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American Airlines Group Inc. (0HE6) carry?
The net debt of American Airlines Group Inc. is $35.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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