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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Marathon Petroleum Corporation $67.45, price $424, upside -84.1%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Oct 2, 2026
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
0JYA · LSEStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $67.45 · Strongly overvalued (−84.1%)
!Quality 59/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +13.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.9% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.15 – $423.78 · fair‑value band $40.72 – $99.11 · the $423.78 price screens above the $67.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel.
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Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA) currently trades at $423.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $67.45, 84.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $86.23 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $423.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.79, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $40.72 (bear) to $99.11 (bull), the price of $423.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported revenue of $133B in FY2025 versus $120B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025, compounding +23.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $130B · P/E ratio 0.2 · EPS (TTM) $17.54 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 27.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% · Operating margin 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 630% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −84%, 0JYA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $40.72
Fair Value $67.45
Bull $99.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.30 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$51.22
$86.52
$134.48
76
Growth DCF
$53.52
$86.23
$128.82
75
EPV
$35.08
$46.22
$55.82
74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$51.22
$86.52
$134.48
76
Owner Earnings
$38.76
$68.99
$110.05
72
5Y Revenue Exit
$47.13
$88.29
$138.68
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$32.17
$61.79
$94.27
71
5Y P/E Exit
$30.73
$59.25
$87.20
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$45.58
$81.98
$126.44
63
10Y EBITDA Exit
$38.79
$64.51
$94.93
65
10Y P/E Exit
$37.91
$62.83
$89.91
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$39.83
$91.19
$116.93
63
PEG = 1.0
$15.21
$21.73
$28.25
55
EPV
$35.08
$46.22
$55.82
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$61.51
$82.01
$102.51
63
P/S Multiple
$74.69
$99.59
$124.48
58
P/B Multiple
$33.83
$45.11
$56.39
55
EV/EBIT
$35.08
$58.59
$82.10
64
EV/EBITDA
$28.72
$50.10
$71.48
65
EV/Revenue
$50.13
$86.80
$123.47
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$12.53
$16.79
$25.06
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$53.52
$86.23
$128.82
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$47.13
$89.34
$134.39
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$33.63
$40.92
$60.71
73
ROIC Compounder
$36.39
$51.62
$68.43
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$47.73
$68.19
$88.64
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
59/100
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Profitability
53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
21
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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’21
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’24
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+32.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31.8% vs 11.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.9% a year for the price and −5.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−8.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)−7.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)−5.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)−4.5%
0JYA screens overvalued: fair value 84% below the price. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $106.19 | $52.92 | −50% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 149,200 KRW | 50,661 KRW | −66% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $74.76 | $53.89 | −28% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹300.60 | ₹846.81 | +182% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $67.45 versus a price of $423.78, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0JYA?
Our model-based fair value for Marathon Petroleum Corporation is $67.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $423.78.
What is the quality score of 0JYA?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $67.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $40.72, optimistic scenario $99.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marathon Petroleum Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $67.45, about −84% upside versus a price of $423.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $40.72, optimistic scenario $99.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $136B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Marathon Petroleum Corporation pay a dividend?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Marathon Petroleum Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +16.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.9 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0JYA use?
Our models discount Marathon Petroleum Corporation at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Marathon Petroleum Corporation that is +16.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Marathon Petroleum Corporation grew +13.9 % a year. The price currently implies +16.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Marathon Petroleum Corporation (+16.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.68 %: that much free cash flow Marathon Petroleum Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marathon Petroleum Corporation it is $67.45 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $423.78. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 0JYA trades above its calculated fair value: price $423.78, fair value $67.45, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0JYA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($423.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($67.45). For Marathon Petroleum Corporation the two are $356.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marathon Petroleum Corporation worth?
The market values Marathon Petroleum Corporation at about $130B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $423.78; our models calculate a fair value of $67.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0JYA?
Our models span a range for Marathon Petroleum Corporation: cautious scenario $40.72, base $67.45, optimistic $99.11 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $423.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0JYA from its 52-week high?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation trades at $423.78, at its 52-week high of $423.78 and 630% above the low of $58.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $67.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marathon Petroleum Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Neste Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $423.78, calculated fair value $67.45 (−84%), Quality Score 59/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0JYA calculated?
We run Marathon Petroleum Corporation through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $67.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Marathon Petroleum Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $423.78. Our model-based fair value is $67.45, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marathon Petroleum Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($99.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($40.72 to $99.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA) come from?
Earnings per share at Marathon Petroleum Corporation grew +16.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.4 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Marathon Petroleum Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
The market capitalisation of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is $130B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 0.2 (as of Jul 24, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Petroleum Corporation are $17.54 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
The dividend yield of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 0.9% (payout 22.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
The net margin of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 27.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
The operating margin of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
Revenue at Marathon Petroleum Corporation is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Petroleum Corporation are growing +351% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA) carry?
The net debt of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is $30.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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