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Medifast, Inc (0K05) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Medifast, Inc $14.06, price $11.68, upside +20.4%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · GB · ISIN US58470H1014

MI Thin data Sep 28, 2026

Medifast, Inc

0K05 · LSE

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $14.06 · Undervalued (+20.4%)
!Quality 49/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −16.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.8% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 0/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$295.83 $9.44 Fair Value $14.06 Mar 2018 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.44 – $295.83 · fair‑value band $11.36 – $15.18 · the $11.68 price screens below the $14.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions to address weight loss in the United States.

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Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a health and wellness company that provides habit-based and coach-guided lifestyle solutions to address weight loss in the United States. The company offers weight loss, weight management, and healthy living products comprising bars, cereals, snack straws, hot chocolate, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, puddings, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, soups, essential amino acid blends, whey protein, hot beverages, brownies, and mini meals under the Essential Fuelings, OPTAVIA ASCEND, and OPTAVIA ACTIVE categories, as well as daily nutrient packs, including multivitamins, minerals, and omega-3 fatty acid supplements. It also provides lifestyle plans consisting of 5 & 1 Plan and 5 & 1 ACTIVE Plan, which provides a targeted reset of the body's metabolism by activating strong and targeted fat burn; Optimal Weight 4 & 2 & 1 Plan and Optimal Weight 4 & 2 ACTIVE Plan, which is designed for clients who want to continue eating all food groups or want a flexible meal plan to achieve a healthy weight; OPTAVIA Optimization Plan, a personalized approach to help clients' long-term weight management; and OPTAVIA GLP-1 Nutrition Support Plan, a nutritional companion to GLP-1 medication that allows clients to focus on weight loss without the stress of figuring out what to eat. In addition, the company offers metabolic synchronization, a science that reverses metabolic dysfunction through a targeted reset of the body's metabolism. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions executed over an e-commerce platform. The company serves health and wellness consumers. The company was formerly known as Healthrite, Inc. and changed its name to Medifast, Inc. in May 2001. Medifast, Inc. was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

Stock analysis

Medifast, Inc (0K05) currently trades at $11.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.06, implying the stock looks roughly 16.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $19.45 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $11.68 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $8.82, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $11.36 (bear) to $15.18 (bull), the price of $11.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Medifast, Inc reported revenue of $386M in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound −29.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $128M · P/E ratio 0.0 · EPS (TTM) $14.02 · Net margin −4.8% · Return on equity −9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 30.3% · Operating margin −7.2% · Revenue (TTM) $346M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 20%, 0K05 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.36 Fair Value $14.06 Bull $15.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.60 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $14.17 $17.79 $29.07 75
Growth DCF $13.76 $19.45 $28.61 73
5Y Revenue Exit $10.13 $11.24 $13.49 69
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $14.17 $17.79 $29.07 75
5Y Revenue Exit $10.13 $11.24 $13.49 69
10Y Revenue Exit $11.35 $14.04 $15.15 64
Multiples
EV/Revenue $8.41 $8.82 $9.23 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.31 $11.14 $16.63 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $13.76 $19.45 $28.61 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 6
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 10/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−36.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−37.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.4% (2020) → −3.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frontdoor, Inc FTDR $72.92 $77.02 +6%
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc BFAM $63.79 $69.81 +9%
CEWE Stiftung & Co CWC €108.00 €155.49 +44%
Lungyen Life Service Corporation 5530 48.85 TWD 15.88 TWD −67%
Musti Group MUSTI €14.40 €22.59 +57%
Carriage Services, Inc CSV $31.79 $26.02 −18%
Propel Funeral Partners Limited PFP A$2.75 A$3.18 +16%

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Medifast, Inc · Fair Value
$14.06 +17%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Medifast, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0K05

Frequently asked questions

Is Medifast, Inc (0K05) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.06 versus a price of $11.68, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0K05?
Our model-based fair value for Medifast, Inc is $14.06 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.68.
What is the quality score of 0K05?
Medifast, Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.06 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.36, optimistic scenario $15.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medifast, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.06, about +20% upside versus a price of $11.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.36, optimistic scenario $15.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
Medifast, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $346M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medifast, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -16.2 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0K05 use?
Our models discount Medifast, Inc at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medifast, Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medifast, Inc (0K05) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medifast, Inc grew -16.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medifast, Inc (0K05) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medifast, Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.97 %: that much free cash flow Medifast, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medifast, Inc it is $14.06 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $11.68. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Medifast, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 0K05 trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.68, fair value $14.06, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0K05?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.06). For Medifast, Inc the two are $2.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medifast, Inc worth?
The market values Medifast, Inc at about $128M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $11.68; our models calculate a fair value of $14.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0K05?
Our models span a range for Medifast, Inc: cautious scenario $11.36, base $14.06, optimistic $15.18 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $11.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is 0K05 from its 52-week high?
Medifast, Inc trades at $11.68, about 17% below its 52-week high of $14.04 and 24% above the low of $9.44 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medifast, Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Rollins, Inc, Service Corporation, H&R Block, Inc, Frontdoor, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medifast, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $11.68, calculated fair value $14.06 (+20%), Quality Score 49/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0K05 calculated?
We run Medifast, Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Medifast, Inc currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $11.68. Our model-based fair value is $14.06, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medifast, Inc right now?
Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Medifast, Inc (0K05) come from?
Earnings per share at Medifast, Inc grew +13.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +15.4 %, EBIT margin −5.0 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Medifast, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
The market capitalisation of Medifast, Inc is $128M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Medifast, Inc is 0.0 (as of Jul 25, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What are the earnings per share of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
Earnings per share at Medifast, Inc are $14.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 0.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
The net margin of Medifast, Inc is −4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medifast, Inc is −9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medifast, Inc is 30.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
The operating margin of Medifast, Inc is −7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
Revenue at Medifast, Inc is growing −34.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −37.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Medifast, Inc (0K05)?
Earnings per share at Medifast, Inc are growing −87.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Medifast, Inc (0K05) hold?
Medifast, Inc holds more cash than debt, $72.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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