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Vonovia SE (0QFT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vonovia SE €12.93, price €16.81, upside -23.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Real Estate · GB · ISIN DE000A1ML7J1

VS Thin data Oct 3, 2026

Vonovia SE

0QFT · LSE

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value €12.93 · Overvalued (−23.1%)
!Quality 48/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +6.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 57.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt
·7.4% dividend yield · Safety not assessed
✓Wide moat 70/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range €9.36 to €25.45
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

€44.99 €12.95 Fair Value €12.93 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €12.95 – €44.99 · fair‑value band €9.36 – €25.45 · the €16.81 price screens above the €12.93 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. The company operates through Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, and Development segments.

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Vonovia SE operates as an integrated residential real estate company in Europe. The company operates through Rental, Value-Add, Recurring Sales, and Development segments. It offers property management services; property-related services; and value-added services, including maintenance and modernization of properties, craftsmen and residential environment organization, multimedia, energy supply, metering, condominium administration, and insurance services. The company is also involved in the sale of individual condominiums and single-family houses; and project development activities to build new homes. In addition, it engages in construction of owner-occupied and rented apartments; sale of projects to investors; and construction of new properties on existing land held in the portfolio. The company was formerly known as Deutsche Annington Immobilien SE and changed its name to Vonovia SE in August 2015. Vonovia SE was founded in 1998 and incorporated in October 10th, 2017 is headquartered in Bochum, Germany.

Stock analysis

Vonovia SE (0QFT) currently trades at €16.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.93, 23.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €21.44 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the €16.81 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €4.70, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €9.36 (bear) to €25.45 (bull), the price of €16.81 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Vonovia SE reported revenue of €7.1B in FY2020 versus €5.5B in FY2016, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was €3.3B in FY2020, compounding +8.7%/yr from FY2016.

Key figures

Market cap €37.9B · P/S ratio 6.37 · Dividend yield 7.4% · Net margin 46.0% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7% · Operating margin 43.3% · Revenue (TTM) €5.9B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −23%, 0QFT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €9.36 Fair Value €12.93 Bull €25.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €10.35 €12.64 €17.87 72
5Y EBITDA Exit €15.78 €34.81 €57.01 69
FCF DCF €0.6400 €6.16 €14.48 67
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.6400 €6.16 €14.48 67
5Y Revenue Exit €3.44 €11.97 €22.85 64
5Y EBITDA Exit €15.78 €34.81 €57.01 69
10Y Revenue Exit €1.86 €9.38 €19.43 57
10Y EBITDA Exit €10.15 €25.15 €45.26 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €2.91 €6.05 €9.60 63
DDM Multi-Stage €2.91 €4.70 €6.35 63
Multiples
P/S Multiple €15.39 €20.52 €25.65 58
P/B Multiple €16.08 €21.44 €26.79 55
EV/EBIT €30.09 €43.36 €56.63 65
EV/EBITDA €28.28 €40.95 €53.61 67
EV/Revenue €5.74 €12.36 €18.99 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €5.36 €7.18 €10.72 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.8400 €5.78 €12.79 66
Rev-Margin DCF €3.44 €11.92 €21.48 65
Economic Profit
Residual Income €10.35 €12.64 €17.87 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 45
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 14
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
77.2% (2016) → 76.5% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed

0QFT screens overvalued: fair value 23% below the price. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 529 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −10.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 57.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 43.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −33.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.93× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.82× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.40× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 28.5× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC 232,000 VND 25,731 VND −89%
CBRE Group CBRE $134.55 $91.06 −32%
KE Holdings 2423 HK$42.92 HK$17.16 −60%
Swire Properties Limited 1972 HK$24.32 HK$13.39 −45%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX €23.99 €23.94 +0%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL $308.07 $540.65 +75%
Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997 HK$30.54 HK$27.42 −10%
CoStar Group CSGP $26.95 $6.19 −77%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209 HK$37.00 HK$56.36 +52%
CapitaLand Investment Limited 9CI 2.60 SGD 0.5600 SGD −78%

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Vonovia SE · Fair Value
€12.93 −23%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vonovia SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0QFT

Frequently asked questions

Is Vonovia SE (0QFT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.93 versus a price of €16.81, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0QFT?
Our model-based fair value for Vonovia SE is €12.93 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €16.81.
What is the quality score of 0QFT?
Vonovia SE has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.93 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.36, optimistic scenario €25.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vonovia SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.93, about −23% upside versus a price of €16.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €9.36, optimistic scenario €25.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
Vonovia SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Vonovia SE pay a dividend?
Vonovia SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.44% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vonovia SE it is €12.93 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of €16.81. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vonovia SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, 0QFT trades above its calculated fair value: price €16.81, fair value €12.93, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0QFT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€16.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.93). For Vonovia SE the two are €3.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vonovia SE worth?
The market values Vonovia SE at about €37.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is €16.81; our models calculate a fair value of €12.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0QFT?
Our models span a range for Vonovia SE: cautious scenario €9.36, base €12.93, optimistic €25.45 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price €16.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vonovia SE (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0QFT from its 52-week high?
Vonovia SE trades at €16.81, about 38% below its 52-week high of €27.07 and at the low of €16.81 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vonovia SE?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vonovia SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price €16.81, calculated fair value €12.93 (−23%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0QFT calculated?
We run Vonovia SE through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vonovia SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €16.81. Our model-based fair value is €12.93, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vonovia SE right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€9.36 to €25.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Vonovia SE

How large is the market capitalisation of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
The market capitalisation of Vonovia SE is €37.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vonovia SE is 6.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
The dividend yield of Vonovia SE is 7.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
The net margin of Vonovia SE is 46.0% (fiscal year 2020). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vonovia SE is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vonovia SE is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
The operating margin of Vonovia SE is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
Revenue at Vonovia SE is growing −33.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vonovia SE (0QFT)?
Earnings per share at Vonovia SE are growing −58.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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