Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd HK$3.12, price HK$1.88, upside +65.9%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$0.9438 – HK$2.29 · fair‑value band HK$2.11 – HK$4.42 · the HK$1.88 price screens below the HK$3.12 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Vanke Overseas Investment Holding Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the asset management, property development, and property investment in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It also offers serviced apartments and hotel, property redevelopment, administrative, and investment advisory services.
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Vanke Overseas Investment Holding Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the asset management, property development, and property investment in Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It also offers serviced apartments and hotel, property redevelopment, administrative, and investment advisory services. The company was formerly known as Vanke Property (Overseas) Limited and changed its name to Vanke Overseas Investment Holding Company Limited in December 2019. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Vanke Overseas Investment Holding Company Limited is a subsidiary of Wkland Investments Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) currently trades at HK$1.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.12, implying the stock looks roughly 39.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$12.74 per share, and 10 of the 10 models we run sit above the HK$1.88 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$2.79, and 0 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$2.11 (bear) to HK$4.42 (bull), the price of HK$1.88 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd reported revenue of HK$607M in FY2025 versus HK$461M in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$92.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$732M (≈ $93.3M) · P/E ratio 18.6 · P/S ratio 1.39 · Dividend yield 10.6% · Net margin −15.2% · Return on equity 1.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 10.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 66%, 1036 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$2.11Fair Value HK$3.12Bull HK$4.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
55.2% (2019) → −1.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Vanke Property Overseas Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 540 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+65.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1.0% · Below median
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)7.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.12 versus a price of HK$1.88, about +66% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1036?
Our model-based fair value for Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is HK$3.12 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.88.
What is the quality score of 1036?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.12 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.11, optimistic scenario HK$4.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vanke Property Overseas Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.12, about +66% upside versus a price of HK$1.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.11, optimistic scenario HK$4.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$522M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Vanke Property Overseas Ltd pay a dividend?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vanke Property Overseas Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1036 use?
Our models discount Vanke Property Overseas Ltd at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vanke Property Overseas Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd grew +5.1 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 42.69 %: that much free cash flow Vanke Property Overseas Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vanke Property Overseas Ltd it is HK$3.12 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$1.88. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vanke Property Overseas Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1036 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.88, fair value HK$3.12, a gap of about +66% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1036?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.12). For Vanke Property Overseas Ltd the two are HK$1.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vanke Property Overseas Ltd worth?
The market values Vanke Property Overseas Ltd at about HK$732M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.88; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1036?
Our models span a range for Vanke Property Overseas Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.11, base HK$3.12, optimistic HK$4.42 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$1.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1036?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$3.12 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 0.2, P/S 1.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 1036?
The PEG ratio of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 2.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1036 from its 52-week high?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd trades at HK$1.88, about 5% below its 52-week high of HK$1.98 and 31% above the low of HK$1.44 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vanke Property Overseas Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vanke Property Overseas Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$1.88, calculated fair value HK$3.12 (+66%), Quality Score 64/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1036 calculated?
We run Vanke Property Overseas Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$3.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Vanke Property Overseas Ltd currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was HK$1.88. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.12, about +66% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vanke Property Overseas Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$2.11 to HK$4.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The market capitalisation of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is HK$732M (≈ $93.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 1.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The dividend yield of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 10.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The net margin of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is −15.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
The operating margin of Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Revenue at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd is growing −5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036)?
Earnings per share at Vanke Property Overseas Ltd are growing −96.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Vanke Property Overseas Ltd (1036) hold?
Vanke Property Overseas Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$668M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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